Spinpoker variance

[johnfiske]

Thank you Harry for a very interesting response to my question comparing
Spinpoker and Spinpoker Deluxe variance. I'm glad you expanded from my
question on variance (a term I probably still don't full understand) to
one on loss risk which is what is important to the player.

I have a lot of experience with $1 Five/Ten Play and a considerable
amount on $1 Spinpoker so I have a pretty good feel for the varying
amounts of volatility when changing games. (On the positive side I have
had a triple royal on Spinpoker but no more then a double royal on Ten
Play.)

I remember reading a seat-of-the-pants suggestion for increased bankroll
requirement for multiline games is to multiply the single line amount by
the square root of the number of lines. For example if one was to play
nine lines on a multiline game the suggested bankroll is approximately
three times the single line requirement. If I understand correctly the
suggested bankroll for a nine line Spinpoker game has been suggested to
be significantly greater then the three times recommendation due to
(variance?). The bankroll requirement for 20 lines on a multiline game
would be approximately 4.5 times the single line version. The Spinpoker
Deluxe suggested bankroll would again be somewhat greater then this
amount for the same reason. I was thinking that the Spinpoker Deluxe
figure would be closer to the 4.5 multiplier then the Spinpoker was to
the 3.0 multiplier. As you would say I was making this "call from the
hip" due to the fact that no one position in the Spinpoker Deluxe is a
factor in 5/9ths of the hands. So if I understand you correctly, as you
go from 9 to 20 lines the bankroll requirement for Spinpoker Deluxe is
actually rising at a faster rate vs a standard multiline game format? It
kind of makes sense now because you are limited to the same 15 card
matrix no matter how many paylines are added.

Thanks again for taking the time to compose such a through explanation.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Harry_Porter]

johnfiske wrote:

Thank you Harry for a very interesting response to my question
comparing Spinpoker and Spinpoker Deluxe variance.

Pleased it was helpful. I worry when writing at some length in the
interest of completeness I produce murk instead.

I'm glad you expanded from my question on variance (a term I
probably still don't full understand) to one on loss risk which is
what is important to the player.

Well, there tends to be a vagueness to the discussion simply because
it can only be carried on in loose terms for the greater part.

"Variance", being a very specific statistical concept, is one that
doesn't lend itself well to getting a sense of what one risks when
they sit down at a machine for a session. Most significantly, it's a
"single point descriptor" of the extent to which actual results can be
expected to vary from expectations ... but only when considered over
the "long term".

That's not to suggest that it's of no value. That long-term nature
only makes sense when you think of it as being, in part, the period of
time over which you can reliable expect close to a given number of royals.

There are better means by which to describe the extent of probable
losses from a play. But they tend to be a little makeshift.

I have a lot of experience with $1 Five/Ten Play and a considerable
amount on $1 Spinpoker so I have a pretty good feel for the varying
amounts of volatility when changing games.

There's no better guidance than experience, provided it's of
sufficient length.

I remember reading a seat-of-the-pants suggestion for increased
bankroll requirement for multiline games is to multiply the single
line amount by the square root of the number of lines. For example
if one was to play nine lines on a multiline game the suggested
bankroll is approximately three times the single line requirement.

Be careful of the term bankroll. It may represent the amount one
might take into a couple hour session (which, as I've noted before, I
really would like to see as distinguished as a "stake" -- session,
trip, etc.), or the bankroll one should have to avoid busting it
within a given probability.

Assuming that you can extend increases in play variance to increased
bankroll requirement with reasonable precision, it's worth review
Jazbo Burns article on n-play variance at jazbo.com

As a guideline for a multiline session stake, this guideline sounds a
little light based upon my experience. But it's certainly close
enough for government work.

So if I understand you correctly, as you go from 9 to 20 lines the
bankroll requirement for Spinpoker Deluxe is actually rising at a
faster rate vs a standard multiline game format? It kind of makes
sense now because you are limited to the same 15 card matrix no
matter how many paylines are added.

Right ... it's exactly because unlike multiline play, you're still
playing with the same number of cards on the deal and draw in
Spinpoker no matter how many lines you play (assuming at least 3).
That eliminates a source of diversity (independence) in the result.

- H.