This is strictly from personal experience.
I have played several hundred hours of 3-play dollar 9/6 JOB, mostly at the
LVH. My biggest loss was $6400.
I have played maybe 200 hours of quarter 9/6 JOB on SpinPoker Deluxe, at
Wynn and at South Point. My biggest loss was $8300.
So you might think that SPD is more volatile, based upon these results.
However, I can put through about 60% more coin-in per hour on SPD. But my SPD
sessions were generally shorter than my 3-play sessions, so maybe SPD is a
little more volatile. It certainly seems to be in the very short term, because of
the larger total wager. As for the long term, I would be interested in a
covariance number for SPD as well. Maybe twice the covariance of SpinPoker?
Pretty scientific, huh? 
As for your 5% number, I'll take a guess. Let's say $5000 for dollar 3-play
and $6000 for quarter SPD. I'm sure someone can be more accurate on the 3-play
number, as you have the covariance, and can also run simulations.
Brian
ยทยทยท
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In a message dated 11/11/2007 10:31:32 AM Pacific Standard Time,
ugwf@hal-pc.org writes:
I am trying to figure out what my expected maximun loss would be 5% of
the time when running $100K through a Spin Poker Deluxe machine playing
20 lines at a time of 9/6 JOB at the quarter level versus regular 3-
play $1 playing 9/6 JOB. I've checked the Wizard's site and he has
covariance numbers for 9 lines of spin poker, but I sense that the
numbers start going up quite rapidly as you approach 20-lines. I am
just way too statistically challenged to figure this out. I am trying
to decide what I want to play when I expect to run the 100K through on
a weekend.
Thanks if you can help.
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