vpFREE2 Forums

Dan2 · January 14, 2020, 5:00pm

I think it is .3/.6

In a message dated 12/13/2005 9:07:21 AM Pacific Standard Time, Dan@OptimumPlay.com writes:

I don't remember what the cash back rate is for the Coast slot club,
but even if it's as high as 0.25%, doubled to 0.5%,

Gee, with a great 0.6% slot club cash rebate, the Risk of Ruin on $25 NSUD with a million dollar bankroll is still 11.9%. If your bankroll is as small as $25,000 then the RoR is nearly 95%.

That's not what I would call a good opportunity. Perhaps I'm too conservative. Or perhaps I'm really what I call myself -- an objective realist.

Dan

···

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

Also, the N0 is:
variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands
meaning you would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an
84% chance of net winning

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@O...> wrote:

ezfromnwon@a... wrote:
>I think it is .3/.6
>
>In a message dated 12/13/2005 9:07:21 AM Pacific Standard Time,
>Dan@O... writes:
>
>I don't remember what the cash back rate is for the Coast slot club,
>but even if it's as high as 0.25%, doubled to 0.5%,

Gee, with a great 0.6% slot club cash rebate, the Risk of Ruin on $25
NSUD with a million dollar bankroll is still 11.9%. If your bankroll
is as small as $25,000 then the RoR is nearly 95%.

That's not what I would call a good opportunity. Perhaps I'm too
conservative. Or perhaps I'm really what I call myself -- an
objective realist.

Dan

--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com

"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur

Cogno_Scienti · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

<<Also, the N0 is:
variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands meaning you
would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an 84% chance of net

It's not important to me that I beat every game I play. It's important that
I have an edge and am able to handle the swings.

Cogno

Gilbert_Escobar · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

Oh really? 3 million hands???
Even if you hit the Royal and 4 Deuces and/or the Royal with Deuces
several times in your first 2 hours of play?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

Also, the N0 is:
variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands
meaning you would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an
84% chance of net winning

>
> ezfromnwon@a... wrote:
> >I think it is .3/.6
> >
> >In a message dated 12/13/2005 9:07:21 AM Pacific Standard Time,
> >Dan@O... writes:
> >
> >I don't remember what the cash back rate is for the Coast slot

club,

> >but even if it's as high as 0.25%, doubled to 0.5%,
>
> Gee, with a great 0.6% slot club cash rebate, the Risk of Ruin on

$25

> NSUD with a million dollar bankroll is still 11.9%. If your

bankroll

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@O...> wrote:
> is as small as $25,000 then the RoR is nearly 95%.
>
> That's not what I would call a good opportunity. Perhaps I'm too
> conservative. Or perhaps I'm really what I call myself -- an
> objective realist.
>
> Dan
>
> --
> Dan Paymar
> Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
> Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
> Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
> Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
>
> "Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
>

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

the chances of not hitting a royal or deuces is 1 - .000023 - .000187
= .99979 per hand, for 1,000 hands, the chances are .99979^1000 = .81
= 81% (19% chance of hitting at least one royal or deuces)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@y...> wrote:

Oh really? 3 million hands???
Even if you hit the Royal and 4 Deuces and/or the Royal with Deuces
several times in your first 2 hours of play?

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
>
> Also, the N0 is:
> variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands
> meaning you would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an
> 84% chance of net winning
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@O...> wrote:
> >
> > ezfromnwon@a... wrote:
> > >I think it is .3/.6
> > >
> > >In a message dated 12/13/2005 9:07:21 AM Pacific Standard Time,
> > >Dan@O... writes:
> > >
> > >I don't remember what the cash back rate is for the Coast slot
club,
> > >but even if it's as high as 0.25%, doubled to 0.5%,
> >
> > Gee, with a great 0.6% slot club cash rebate, the Risk of Ruin on
$25
> > NSUD with a million dollar bankroll is still 11.9%. If your
bankroll
> > is as small as $25,000 then the RoR is nearly 95%.
> >
> > That's not what I would call a good opportunity. Perhaps I'm too
> > conservative. Or perhaps I'm really what I call myself -- an
> > objective realist.
> >
> > Dan
> >
> > --
> > Dan Paymar
> > Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
> > Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
> > Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
> > Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
> >
> > "Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
> >
>

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

N0 is a measure of the swing and edge, it's the point at which the
edge catches up to the swing (1sd)

<<Also, the N0 is:
variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands

meaning you

would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an 84% chance

of net

>>

It's not important to me that I beat every game I play. It's

important that

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Cogno Scienti" <cognoscienti@g...> wrote:

I have an edge and am able to handle the swings.

Cogno

nightoftheiguana2000 · January 14, 2020, 6:24pm

the RORBR, risk of ruin before hitting a royal, for NSUD is
0.999110272, the risk of losing a royal before hitting a royal is:
0.999110272^800 = 49%, the bankroll required to get a 50% chance of
hitting a royal is 779 bets, to get a 90% chance is 2587 bets (~3.2
royals)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

···

the chances of not hitting a royal or deuces is 1 - .000023 - .000187
= .99979 per hand, for 1,000 hands, the chances are .99979^1000 = .81
= 81% (19% chance of hitting at least one royal or deuces)

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@y...> wrote:
>
> Oh really? 3 million hands???
> Even if you hit the Royal and 4 Deuces and/or the Royal with Deuces
> several times in your first 2 hours of play?
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
> <nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> >
> > Also, the N0 is:
> > variance/(er-1+cashback)^2=26/(.997-1+.006)^2=2,888,889 hands
> > meaning you would have to play almost 3 million hands just to get an
> > 84% chance of net winning
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Dan Paymar <Dan@O...> wrote:
> > >
> > > ezfromnwon@a... wrote:
> > > >I think it is .3/.6
> > > >
> > > >In a message dated 12/13/2005 9:07:21 AM Pacific Standard Time,
> > > >Dan@O... writes:
> > > >
> > > >I don't remember what the cash back rate is for the Coast slot
> club,
> > > >but even if it's as high as 0.25%, doubled to 0.5%,
> > >
> > > Gee, with a great 0.6% slot club cash rebate, the Risk of Ruin on
> $25
> > > NSUD with a million dollar bankroll is still 11.9%. If your
> bankroll
> > > is as small as $25,000 then the RoR is nearly 95%.
> > >
> > > That's not what I would call a good opportunity. Perhaps I'm too
> > > conservative. Or perhaps I'm really what I call myself -- an
> > > objective realist.
> > >
> > > Dan
> > >
> > > --
> > > Dan Paymar
> > > Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
> > > Editor/Publisher of VP newsletter "Video Poker Times"
> > > Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
> > > Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
> > >
> > > "Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
> > >
> >
>

South Coast offer