vpFREE2 Forums

So you go to the Casino with a plan ?

#1

I have been playing video poker for some time with one good hit
dealt royal on a 10 play 25c machine. Overall, I am losing but that
is another story.

My post is aiming to clarify some basic questions. So you go to the
Casino with a plan to win and you have the appropriate bankroll for
it. Say you will play NSUD and you have the 3 or 5 royal x
bankroll. So you start playing and then what.
Q When do you stop ? based on the time spent ? points earned ? or
you are winning or losing ?
Q Say you hit a royal and you get a w 2. Do you stop playing ? Why
stop as it does not matter, the RNG does not know that and if you
are playing correct you need to keep playing right ??
Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and you obviously want
to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal strategy ? Which
type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this is assuming there
is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at Ameristar etc. Any
local recommendations are welcome.

Thanks for your time and effort.

#2

We play as long as we have fun doing so. We get to LV only 4 times a year. So when we
are there and it is fun, my wife and I are playing the VP that we enjoy, depending on where
we happen to be. Of course, we look for the best tables that are at each place we visit.

When we have some bad times, we may walk a mall, go to another casino, have a meal, or
people watch. The "bad" feelings quickly fade and we then go back to the VP.

We have no formula except to have fun during the 6 days that we are there every trip. The
magic word is "fun".

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nirpam" <nirpam@y...> wrote:

I have been playing video poker for some time with one good hit
dealt royal on a 10 play 25c machine. Overall, I am losing but that
is another story.

My post is aiming to clarify some basic questions. So you go to the
Casino with a plan to win and you have the appropriate bankroll for
it. Say you will play NSUD and you have the 3 or 5 royal x
bankroll. So you start playing and then what.
Q When do you stop ? based on the time spent ? points earned ? or
you are winning or losing ?
Q Say you hit a royal and you get a w 2. Do you stop playing ? Why
stop as it does not matter, the RNG does not know that and if you
are playing correct you need to keep playing right ??
Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and you obviously want
to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal strategy ? Which
type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this is assuming there
is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at Ameristar etc. Any
local recommendations are welcome.

Thanks for your time and effort.

#3

If your goal is optimum bankroll growth, then Kelly strategy:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm
Q1: What is wrong with maximizing your expected winnings?
A1: Although at first glance it seems obvious that it is best to
maximize the expected (i.e., predicted average) amount of your
winnings, this is in fact not true for most people. If this were
really your goal then whenever you had the slightest advantage you
would mortgage your house, car, and boat and bet your entire fortune.
Although this gives you the greatest net win, on average, this is
entirely too risky for most people.

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nirpam" <nirpam@y...> wrote:

Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and you obviously want
to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal strategy ? Which
type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this is assuming there
is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at Ameristar etc. Any
local recommendations are welcome.

#4

Thanks for your reply. I read the reference and could
not make out much of the math. Though I understand
the concept somewhat, I am not sure what it means in
actual numbers or recommendations. My questions as
below are still not clarified. Maybe someone can
transform the Kelly strategy to actual "nuts and
bolts"?!!

Thanks for your help.

--- nightoftheiguana2000

···

<nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nirpam"
<nirpam@y...> wrote:
> Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and
you obviously want
> to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal
strategy ? Which
> type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this
is assuming there
> is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at
Ameristar etc. Any
> local recommendations are welcome.

If your goal is optimum bankroll growth, then Kelly
strategy:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm
Q1: What is wrong with maximizing your expected
winnings?
A1: Although at first glance it seems obvious that
it is best to
maximize the expected (i.e., predicted average)
amount of your
winnings, this is in fact not true for most people.
If this were
really your goal then whenever you had the slightest
advantage you
would mortgage your house, car, and boat and bet
your entire fortune.
Although this gives you the greatest net win, on
average, this is
entirely too risky for most people.

http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html

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http://mail.yahoo.com

#5

OK, simple Kelly strategy:

1. What is your bankroll? Another name for this is your stop limit, if
you don't have one, you have a gambling addiction, see
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/20questions.html . And it's not your
daily stop limit, more like your annual stop limit, how much money are
you actually willing to lose in one year of play? Because no matter
how favorable the gamble, if you are gambling (playing odds) there is
always a chance of losing your bankroll.

2. What is the Kelly number for the game you're considering playing?
The Jazbo link has a perl script that will exactly calculate it for
any game, but you can also estimate it: Kelly=
Variance/(ER-1+Cashback), for example, for NSUD +1% cashback,
Kelly=26/(.997-1+.01)=3714.

3. What is your optimum bet size? Take your bankroll and divide by the
Kelly number and that is your optimum bet size. For example, if your
bankroll was $5000: 5000/3714=$1.35 . You should never overbet kelly,
but you could underbet. In this case you could play a 5 coin quarter
game because that bet would be $1.25 .

4. Max-ER strategy will work, Min-ROR is probably safer, optimum is
somewhere inbetween those two and will vary slightly as your bankroll
changes.

5. What are your alternative plays, up and down in bet size? Because,
as you play, your bankroll will change, either up or down, and
therefore your optimum Kelly bet will change - at some point you
should switch to one of your alternatives. For example, if 10 coin
dimes is available, bet size = $1.00, then if your bankroll falls to
that level, that is the game you should be playing, likewise for 10
coin quarters if your bankroll should grow.

That's it. If you know your bankroll, Kelly number (or estimate using
variance/advantage), then you know your optimum play (which could be
not to play), and you can generate your optimum strategy which will be
somewhere between Max-ER and Min-ROR. Of course bankroll changes with
play, so iteration is required.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, nirav shastri <nirpam@y...> wrote:

Thanks for your reply. I read the reference and could
not make out much of the math. Though I understand
the concept somewhat, I am not sure what it means in
actual numbers or recommendations. My questions as
below are still not clarified. Maybe someone can
transform the Kelly strategy to actual "nuts and
bolts"?!!

Thanks for your help.

--- nightoftheiguana2000
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nirpam"
> <nirpam@y...> wrote:
> > Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and
> you obviously want
> > to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal
> strategy ? Which
> > type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this
> is assuming there
> > is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at
> Ameristar etc. Any
> > local recommendations are welcome.
>
> If your goal is optimum bankroll growth, then Kelly
> strategy:
>
> http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm
> Q1: What is wrong with maximizing your expected
> winnings?
> A1: Although at first glance it seems obvious that
> it is best to
> maximize the expected (i.e., predicted average)
> amount of your
> winnings, this is in fact not true for most people.
> If this were
> really your goal then whenever you had the slightest
> advantage you
> would mortgage your house, car, and boat and bet
> your entire fortune.
> Although this gives you the greatest net win, on
> average, this is
> entirely too risky for most people.
>
> http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
>
>
>
>
>
>

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#6

Iguana said: What is your bankroll? Another name for this is your stop
limit, if
you don't have one, you have a gambling addiction, see
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/20questions.html

I don't buy this at all, unless we are strictly limiting ourselves to a
discussion of betting "close" to our maximum. But if we're not close,
there is no need for an annual stop limit. An extreme case would be Bill
Gates, who I've heard plays $20 - $40 poker at the Mirage on occasion.
He doesn't need to figure out a stop limit, because there is zero chance
that he's going to bust out, no matter how bad his luck is.

Not quite so extreme, there are a number of people on this forum who are
essentially "set for life," and who play 25 cent video poker because
that's what they like to do. Sometimes they even play a very strong
game. But there is essentially no loss at quarters that's going to hurt
them.

Finally, I would be wary of citing Gamblers Anonymous as a source. While
they provide an important service for many people who need it, many
successful professional gamblers who have taken a Gamblers Anonymous
test just to see how it comes out, will come back with a false positive
test result indicating they have a gambling addiction. I don't buy that
at all.

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

nirpam wrote:
<snip> Q When do you stop?

···

===============================
Besides the obvious (dinner, nap, big game, etc.), I change games when
I've had a "good" session and have lost about 1/3 of my winnings.
Example: Start with $50 (200 credits) playing 25c FPDW. If I get my
credits to run up to 560, I'll play down to 440 (having lost 120 = 1/3
of 360). This is just a "rule" I have for myself and theoretically
it's no different than changing machines or any other superstitious
act that we might have. (OK, If I drink too much, 1/3 becomes 1/2,
and 1/2 becomes...well, we've all been there.)

nirpam also wrote:
<snip> Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play and you obviously
want to win and maybe get comps too. What is the ideal strategy ? Which
type of video poker will you play ? Obviously this is assuming there
is no full pay around. I live in KC and play at Ameristar etc. Any
local recommendations are welcome.

Assuming the database is correct, I would play these two 25c games:
1) Ameristar, Pick'em (99.95%, 15 VAR, .25% CB, .31% comps)
2) Isle of Capri, AA (100.72%, 26.8 VAR, .125% CB, .5% comps)
Practice hard and I'll bet you'll play as much as you want (and eat as
much as you want) until these games are gone [or the big Missouri
earthquake hits, whichever comes first :)].
Jeff

#8

WOW! I can't believe it. I agree TOTALLY with Mr. Dancer.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@c...> wrote:

I don't buy this at all, unless we are strictly limiting ourselves to a
discussion of betting "close" to our maximum. But if we're not close,
there is no need for an annual stop limit. An extreme case would be Bill
Gates, who I've heard plays $20 - $40 poker at the Mirage on occasion.
He doesn't need to figure out a stop limit, because there is zero chance
that he's going to bust out, no matter how bad his luck is.

Not quite so extreme, there are a number of people on this forum who are
essentially "set for life," and who play 25 cent video poker because
that's what they like to do. Sometimes they even play a very strong
game. But there is essentially no loss at quarters that's going to hurt
them.

Finally, I would be wary of citing Gamblers Anonymous as a source. While
they provide an important service for many people who need it, many
successful professional gamblers who have taken a Gamblers Anonymous
test just to see how it comes out, will come back with a false positive
test result indicating they have a gambling addiction. I don't buy that
at all.

Bob Dancer

#9

It isn't that big a deal to overbet Kelly by a small amount. If you overbet
by a factor of two, then the geometric growth rate drops to zero. There
are bankroll sizes where playing a quarter machine would underbet Kelly,
while playing a 50 cent machine would overbet Kelly, and the growth
rate would be higher by playing the 50 cent machine.

···

On Wednesday 21 December 2005 10:53 pm, nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:

OK, simple Kelly strategy:

3. What is your optimum bet size? Take your bankroll and divide by the
Kelly number and that is your optimum bet size. For example, if your
bankroll was $5000: 5000/3714=$1.35 . You should never overbet kelly,
but you could underbet. In this case you could play a 5 coin quarter
game because that bet would be $1.25 .

#10

I went back and read the two-part interplay between "night of the iguana" and
Bob Dancer. I was really interested in the "Kelly Betting" thing. In truth, I have
always had a hard time defining, for myself and my situation, what is my
"bankroll" and/or what is my "stop limit", as Iquana tried to define it.

But, I did like Bob Dancer's coments about the people who are "set for life", so
to speak, and enjoy playing quarter VP.

I would assume then, for those people, the Kelly situation is sort of undefined.
They bet $1.25 all the time and that is it. They may, from time ttime to time,
seeking a bit more "excitement", or just having had a nice "win", move up to
$1 machines, or play some sort of multi-line game. But, again, the Kelly
algorithm seems to have no relevance for them.

Am I missing something basic?

.....bl

#11

Thanks once again. This makes it more clearer though
the Kelly math is not very clear to me in your point
number 2 !

My bankroll is 10,000$ annually. So I should play
2.5$ bet per hand ? Doubled the point no.3 amount. I
have been playing NSUDs on 100 play machines varying
my bet size to 100 x 2c or 100 x 5c. This may be to
high a bet amount based on kelly numbers.

Max ER and Min ROR strategy - Where do I find the
diffrences ?

If you can imagine a horizontal curve dipping down and
rising up - wriggling up and down around a straight
line. The straight line is break even, curve going
above the straight line is winning and below is losing
- kind of like a (bad) EKG reading !
Then, when you are playing and say you win some money
say 200 $ and you stop, leave and come back again ?
Is this the correct way of playing if winning a set
amount is the only criteria to be used and not
comp/time/fatigue/etc.? That is to say that stop when
the curve is above the line and leave. Does this
translate into long term winning as you are leaving at
the top of the line with a positive curve (MOST)times
?? Or in order to win some set amount each visit, do
you increase your bet size till you win that amount
and then leave ???

Maybe these are not the "correct" questions to ask but
I think they are important for me to be answered as
they seem to be obvious questions which need be
clarified before you start playing !!

I think there are enough intelligent people in this
forum to provide me with this useful information as
they may have "figured it out " already.

I appreciate all your comments and recommendations.

Thanks
--- nightoftheiguana2000

···

<nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com> wrote:

OK, simple Kelly strategy:

1. What is your bankroll? Another name for this is
your stop limit, if
you don't have one, you have a gambling addiction,
see
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/20questions.html .
And it's not your
daily stop limit, more like your annual stop limit,
how much money are
you actually willing to lose in one year of play?
Because no matter
how favorable the gamble, if you are gambling
(playing odds) there is
always a chance of losing your bankroll.

2. What is the Kelly number for the game you're
considering playing?
The Jazbo link has a perl script that will exactly
calculate it for
any game, but you can also estimate it: Kelly=
Variance/(ER-1+Cashback), for example, for NSUD +1%
cashback,
Kelly=26/(.997-1+.01)=3714.

3. What is your optimum bet size? Take your bankroll
and divide by the
Kelly number and that is your optimum bet size. For
example, if your
bankroll was $5000: 5000/3714=$1.35 . You should
never overbet kelly,
but you could underbet. In this case you could play
a 5 coin quarter
game because that bet would be $1.25 .

4. Max-ER strategy will work, Min-ROR is probably
safer, optimum is
somewhere inbetween those two and will vary slightly
as your bankroll
changes.

5. What are your alternative plays, up and down in
bet size? Because,
as you play, your bankroll will change, either up or
down, and
therefore your optimum Kelly bet will change - at
some point you
should switch to one of your alternatives. For
example, if 10 coin
dimes is available, bet size = $1.00, then if your
bankroll falls to
that level, that is the game you should be playing,
likewise for 10
coin quarters if your bankroll should grow.

That's it. If you know your bankroll, Kelly number
(or estimate using
variance/advantage), then you know your optimum play
(which could be
not to play), and you can generate your optimum
strategy which will be
somewhere between Max-ER and Min-ROR. Of course
bankroll changes with
play, so iteration is required.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, nirav shastri
<nirpam@y...> wrote:
>
> Thanks for your reply. I read the reference and
could
> not make out much of the math. Though I
understand
> the concept somewhat, I am not sure what it means
in
> actual numbers or recommendations. My questions
as
> below are still not clarified. Maybe someone can
> transform the Kelly strategy to actual "nuts and
> bolts"?!!
>
> Thanks for your help.
>
> --- nightoftheiguana2000
> <nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
>
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nirpam"
> > <nirpam@y...> wrote:
> > > Q Say you have a "budget" of 10,000 $ to play
and
> > you obviously want
> > > to win and maybe get comps too. What is the
ideal
> > strategy ? Which
> > > type of video poker will you play ? Obviously
this
> > is assuming there
> > > is no full pay around. I live in KC and play
at
> > Ameristar etc. Any
> > > local recommendations are welcome.
> >
> > If your goal is optimum bankroll growth, then
Kelly
> > strategy:
> >
> > http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kellyfaq.htm
> > Q1: What is wrong with maximizing your expected
> > winnings?
> > A1: Although at first glance it seems obvious
that
> > it is best to
> > maximize the expected (i.e., predicted average)
> > amount of your
> > winnings, this is in fact not true for most
people.
> > If this were
> > really your goal then whenever you had the
slightest
> > advantage you
> > would mortgage your house, car, and boat and bet
> > your entire fortune.
> > Although this gives you the greatest net win, on
> > average, this is
> > entirely too risky for most people.
> >
> > http://www.jazbo.com/videopoker/kelly.html
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Do You Yahoo!?
> Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam
protection around
> http://mail.yahoo.com
>

__________________________________________________
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#12

For players who choose to wager a tiny fraction of their bankrolls, but
who also wish to adhere to Kelly principles, the correct playing strategy
is the same as max-EV.

Players like Bill Gates really haven't got a choice here, because there are
no VP machines with units large enough to permit them to bet the proper
Kelly fraction. However, Kelly can still have relevance for playing strategy.

···

On Thursday 22 December 2005 09:46 am, bornloser1537 wrote:

I went back and read the two-part interplay between "night of the iguana"
and Bob Dancer. I was really interested in the "Kelly Betting" thing. In
truth, I have always had a hard time defining, for myself and my situation,
what is my "bankroll" and/or what is my "stop limit", as Iquana tried to
define it.

But, I did like Bob Dancer's coments about the people who are "set for
life", so to speak, and enjoy playing quarter VP.

I would assume then, for those people, the Kelly situation is sort of
undefined. They bet $1.25 all the time and that is it. They may, from time
ttime to time, seeking a bit more "excitement", or just having had a nice
"win", move up to $1 machines, or play some sort of multi-line game. But,
again, the Kelly algorithm seems to have no relevance for them.

Am I missing something basic?

#13

Thank you!

And, in case you are wondering, I am not Bill Gates. <smile>

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x...> wrote:

For players who choose to wager a tiny fraction of their bankrolls, but
who also wish to adhere to Kelly principles, the correct playing strategy
is the same as max-EV.

Players like Bill Gates really haven't got a choice here, because there are
no VP machines with units large enough to permit them to bet the proper
Kelly fraction. However, Kelly can still have relevance for playing strategy.

#14

Iguana said: What is your bankroll? Another name for this is your stop
limit, if
you don't have one, you have a gambling addiction, see
http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/20questions.html

I don't buy this at all, unless we are strictly limiting ourselves to a
discussion of betting "close" to our maximum. But if we're not close,
there is no need for an annual stop limit.

What you are calling "maximum" is the stop limit. For some people it
might be $1,000 , for others it might be $1,000,000 . But there is
always a stop limit.

An extreme case would be Bill
Gates, who I've heard plays $20 - $40 poker at the Mirage on occasion.
He doesn't need to figure out a stop limit, because there is zero chance
that he's going to bust out, no matter how bad his luck is.

When Gates goes up against Larry Ellison, Kirk Kerkorian, George
Soros, Bangalore, Beijing, or Washington, D.C., he needs to be aware
of his stop loss limits.

Not quite so extreme, there are a number of people on this forum who are
essentially "set for life," and who play 25 cent video poker because
that's what they like to do. Sometimes they even play a very strong
game. But there is essentially no loss at quarters that's going to hurt
them.

Sure, but they are also underbetting their bankroll. As long as that
doesn't bother them.

Finally, I would be wary of citing Gamblers Anonymous as a source. While
they provide an important service for many people who need it, many
successful professional gamblers who have taken a Gamblers Anonymous
test just to see how it comes out, will come back with a false positive
test result indicating they have a gambling addiction. I don't buy that
at all.

Just something to consider.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@c...> wrote:

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

Mr. not-Bill-Gates said: WOW! I can't believe it. I agree TOTALLY
with Mr. Dancer.

It might not be fatal. Take two aspirins and lie down. You just might
make it through.

Bob Dancer

For the best in video poker information, visit www.bobdancer.com
or call 1-800-244-2224 M-F 9-5 Pacific Time.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#16

I went back and read the two-part interplay between "night of the

iguana" and

Bob Dancer. I was really interested in the "Kelly Betting" thing.

In truth, I have

always had a hard time defining, for myself and my situation, what

is my

"bankroll" and/or what is my "stop limit", as Iquana tried to define it.

But, I did like Bob Dancer's coments about the people who are "set

for life", so

to speak, and enjoy playing quarter VP.

I would assume then, for those people, the Kelly situation is sort

of undefined.

They bet $1.25 all the time and that is it. They may, from time

ttime to time,

seeking a bit more "excitement", or just having had a nice "win",

move up to

$1 machines, or play some sort of multi-line game. But, again, the

Kelly

algorithm seems to have no relevance for them.

Am I missing something basic?

.....bl

Yes. The "Kelly situation" is just math. It always exists, the only
issue is whether the player is aware. It's like a red light at a
traffic intersection, it is information, what you choose to do with
that information is your choice, but it doesn't effect the
information. Saying to yourself, no matter how many times, that there
is no red light, does not make the red light go away.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...> wrote:

#17

Each hand of video poker is random and independent of the prior hand,
at least in states with fair regulated gambling, thus session win/loss
limits don't affect long term results.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, nirav shastri <nirpam@y...> wrote:

Then, when you are playing and say you win some money
say 200 $ and you stop, leave and come back again ?
Is this the correct way of playing if winning a set
amount is the only criteria to be used and not
comp/time/fatigue/etc.? That is to say that stop when
the curve is above the line and leave. Does this
translate into long term winning as you are leaving at
the top of the line with a positive curve (MOST)times

#18

> Not quite so extreme, there are a number of people on this forum

who are

> essentially "set for life," and who play 25 cent video poker because
> that's what they like to do. Sometimes they even play a very strong
> game. But there is essentially no loss at quarters that's going to

hurt

> them.

I thought it might be worth flushing this out a bit with an example.
Let's say Richy Rich plays quarter FPDW perfectly, and naturally, he
mostly wins, but even Richy is aware that bad luck is possible, and if
he happens to sustain a running net loss of, let's say, $25,000 then
he will quit and curse the gods and take up something safer like
rock-paper-scissors tournaments for fun. What are the chances that
Richy will sustain a $25,000 running net lost? Use:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html , select
FPDW, enter bankroll of $25,000/$1.25=20,000 bets, risk of ruin is: 0%
. (Technically it is: 0.999346832571955^20000=0.0002%, effectively
zero). But, now maybe Richy Rich is a bit of a hotdog, and when he
hears this good news, he decides to take a shot at dollar double bonus
to increase his winnings. The situation has just changed, run the
numbers yourself for details.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Dancer" <bob.dancer@c...> wrote:

#19

They may, from time ttime to time,
seeking a bit more "excitement", or just having had a nice "win",

move up to

$1 machines, or play some sort of multi-line game.

The light just turned yellow.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...> wrote:

#20

Yes, the player's longterm RoR on $1 Double Bonus would jump to
54%. That's a huge RoR, right? But here's a question for you.
What do you think the RoR for 500 hours of $1 Double Bonus on a
$25,000 bankroll is? (say, 500 hands/hr). That's 250,000 hands of
Double Bonus.

Answer to come, after your guess!

--Dunbar

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

I thought it might be worth flushing this out a bit with an

example.

Let's say Richy Rich plays quarter FPDW perfectly, and naturally,

he

mostly wins, but even Richy is aware that bad luck is possible,

and if

he happens to sustain a running net loss of, let's say, $25,000

then

he will quit and curse the gods and take up something safer like
rock-paper-scissors tournaments for fun. What are the chances that
Richy will sustain a $25,000 running net lost? Use:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html , select
FPDW, enter bankroll of $25,000/$1.25=20,000 bets, risk of ruin

is: 0%

. (Technically it is: 0.999346832571955^20000=0.0002%, effectively
zero). But, now maybe Richy Rich is a bit of a hotdog, and when he
hears this good news, he decides to take a shot at dollar double

bonus

···

to increase his winnings. The situation has just changed, run the
numbers yourself for details.