While other posts will give you a mathematical analysis, the real answer is "do you feel lucky?"
Reminds me of someone asking a poker pro what their favorite starting hand was, to which they replied, "it depends, what's the flop going to be?"
--BG
==============
b.glazer wrote:
While other posts will give you a mathematical analysis, the real
answer is "do you feel lucky?"
I understand that inclination, but $5K is a lot to lay on the line
(well, $4500, given the minimum return).
Looking at this very generally, I'd recommend against the tournament
for anyone who doesn't play $2+ machines with a regular frequency.
The risk, relative to that a $1 player is presumably willing to
accept, is unwarranted.
To offer some perspective, the EV represented by the tournament is
less attractive than that presented by one RF cycle's play on $1 FPDW
-- yet has considerably much more risk.
As I note, that's merely a generalization.
- Harry
Right you are about the EV-- on 45281 hands of $1 FPDW its about $1721
But what is the likelihood that you will lose $5K (1000 bets?) playing that game (RoR given a
stake of $5000) Any idea?
I know that you have about 50% chance of losing $1600 (320 bets) before playing even
15,000 hands-- but I hesitate to extrapolate.
My sense is that with $5K you have a decent chance of making it 1 RF cycle --anyone with
the data out there?-- but you have almost no chance of winning $400K.
Anyone know where there is a $1 FPDW to try this on?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
To offer some perspective, the EV represented by the tournament is
less attractive than that presented by one RF cycle's play on $1 FPDW
-- yet has considerably much more risk.As I note, that's merely a generalization.
- Harry
I (naturally!) used Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker v1.5 to
answer your FPDW risk-of-ruin question.
The chance of losing $5K in 45281 hands of $1 FPDW is 20%. But the
comparison should be to losing $4500, because losing $4500 is the
worst possible result from the tournament (if you assume $500 in
free play is very close to $500 in cash.)
The chance of losing $4.5K in 45281 hands of $1 FPDW is 24%. Here
is a table of possible outcomes:
DISTRIBUTION OF OUTCOMES
FINAL BANK, % CHANGE, PROBABILITY
0, lose 100%, 24%
1 - 899, lose 80% to 99%, 2%
900 - 1799, lose 60% to 80% 3%
1800 - 2699 , lose 40% to 60%, 4%
2700 - 3599, lose 20% to 40%, 5%
3600 - 4499, lose up to 20% , 6%
4500 - 5399, win up to 20%, 5%
5400 - 6299, win 20% to 40%, 6%
6300 - 7199, win 40% to 60%, 6%
7200 - 8099, win 60% to 80%, 6%
8100 - 8999, win 80% to 99+%, 5%
9000 +, double or more, 28%
This assumes no tipping, no errors, and no tax consequences (all of
which could be easily incorporated with DRA-VP. It also assumes
that you stop playing if at any point you have lost $4500.
--Dunbar
Right you are about the EV-- on 45281 hands of $1 FPDW its about
$1721
But what is the likelihood that you will lose $5K (1000 bets?)
playing that game (RoR given a
stake of $5000) Any idea?
I know that you have about 50% chance of losing $1600 (320 bets)
before playing even
15,000 hands-- but I hesitate to extrapolate.
My sense is that with $5K you have a decent chance of making it 1
RF cycle --anyone with
the data out there?-- but you have almost no chance of winning
$400K.
Anyone know where there is a $1 FPDW to try this on?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@>
wrote:
> To offer some perspective, the EV represented by the tournament
is
> less attractive than that presented by one RF cycle's play on $1
FPDW
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cdfsrule" <vpfree_digests@...> wrote:
> -- yet has considerably much more risk.
>
> As I note, that's merely a generalization.
>
> - Harry
>
One way to think about a positive-EV tournament like this is to
consider how much bankroll it would take to play a series of
identical tournaments. Say you could play one of these
tournaments every week for the next yearhow much bankroll would you
need? What if you could play as many of these tournaments as you
wanted?
I've looked at those questions for tournaments similar to this
tournament in structure, and the bankroll requirements are
daunting. If you want just a 1% RoR, you'd need a bankroll
somewhere between $500K to $1M to play a long series of these
tournaments.
--Dunbar
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
b.glazer wrote:
> While other posts will give you a mathematical analysis, the
real
> answer is "do you feel lucky?"
I understand that inclination, but $5K is a lot to lay on the line
(well, $4500, given the minimum return).Looking at this very generally, I'd recommend against the
tournament
for anyone who doesn't play $2+ machines with a regular
frequency.
The risk, relative to that a $1 player is presumably willing to
accept, is unwarranted.To offer some perspective, the EV represented by the tournament is
less attractive than that presented by one RF cycle's play on $1
FPDW
-- yet has considerably much more risk.
As I note, that's merely a generalization.
- Harry