In a message dated 7/14/07 12:24:17 PM US Mountain Standard Time,
vpfree_digests@vpfree2.com writes:
···
Right you are.... EV on the $5K entry is 26% assuming the prize pool is
$1.26M
[ $1.26M / 200 / $5K ]
The payout data can be used to compute the PDF and CDF, for the two tourneys
combined (and therefore the variance, etc). Here are the results for up to
$5500,$/ 1K P Cum% 100-Cum
0.000 0.00 100 00.0
0.500 0.64 64 36.0
0.750 0.08 72 28.0
2.500 0.056 77.6 22.4
3.000 0.08 85.6 14.4
3.250 0.01 86.6 13.4
5.000 0.007 87.3 12.7
5.500 0.064 93.7 6.3How to read the table:
There is no way to win $0.
64% of folks will win $500 or less; 36% will win more than $500
72% will win $750 or less; 28% will more than $750
and so on,
until, you find that 12.7% of folks will win more than $5000 (break even is
at $5000)Also: The most likely win is $500. Exactly 5% (10 people) will win more
than the average
win of $6300 (you can't win $6300 exactly). Hence, the mean (average) is to
the "right" of
the mode (most likely value), typical of all casino games.
*****
That is some useful information to make a decision to enter this tourney.
One thing that was not mentioned by the original poster is the ancilliary
benefits...like a room, some food and any other perks offered...and if they put any
value on them. Being RFB beforehand will lead to deep discounting.
With this overlay they probably had to have a current relationship with the
casino to get invited. There could be indirect costs already incurred.
Also, what happens if they don't have 200 entries or accept more than 200?
What happens to the prize pool? That might take digging in the fine print or
getting in the face of someone important running the tourney.
BS<BR><BR><BR>**************************************<BR> Get a sneak peak of the all-new AOL
at http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour</HTML>
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]