Step one: set a running stop loss limit. If the total of your sessions
is a loss that equals the running stop loss limit, stop. At least
until you can rebuild your gambling funds from your paycheck. What is
a good stop loss? One approach is to say a 50% chance of hitting it is
the bare minimum acceptable, since that leaves you with a 50% chance
of playing forever, so, for example, taking FPDW and plugging in 50%
ror into: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html ,
result is 1061 bets, or $1326.25 on 5 coin quarters. Another approach
is to set a win goal, such as winning 4x the value of the stop loss,
this results in a breakeven of ROR = (1-ROR)/4, solving, ROR=1/3 or
33%, plugging that in gives a stop limit of 1697 bets, (but this is a
high estimate because the tool assumes we will play forever). Kelly
says, if we hit the stop limit, and we can switch to half the bet size
(for example from $2.50 per hand to $1.25), then we should do so,
beginning again with a new stop limit which is half the old one (in
dollars). And, if we get lucky and actually win 4x the amount of the
stop limit, we should double our bet per hand (for example from $2.50
to $5.00), again beginning our record keeping again, this time with
double the old stop limit (in dollars). This win goal actually reduces
our risk of hitting our stop loss a bit, since we are no longer trying
to play forever. There is a Kelly number for every positive game, you
can get it with this tool: http://www.jazbo.com/poker/kellyp.html .
For FPDW, the Kelly number is 2924 bets, the Kelly stop limit would be
2924/2 = 1462 bets ($1827.50 on 5 coin quarters). Playing this way,
there is a 1/3 chance of hitting the stop limit and either stopping to
rebuild the gambling funds or halving the bet per hand and starting
again, and there is a 2/3 chance of hitting the win goal (4x the stop
loss) and moving up to double the bet per hand.
simple Kelly strategy for VP
flow charted it looks like this:
START, reset running win/loss total
RECORD running win or loss
If running loss > (kelly/2), if possible, halve bet per hand and go to
START, otherwise stop, rebuild gambling funds, and return to START later
If running win > (2x kelly), if possible, double bet per hand and go
to START
return to RECORD keeping, keep playing
Step one: set a running stop loss limit. If the total of your sessions
is a loss that equals the running stop loss limit, stop. At least
until you can rebuild your gambling funds from your paycheck. What is
a good stop loss? One approach is to say a 50% chance of hitting it is
the bare minimum acceptable, since that leaves you with a 50% chance
of playing forever, so, for example, taking FPDW and plugging in 50%
ror into: http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/analyzer/CindyProg.html ,
result is 1061 bets, or $1326.25 on 5 coin quarters. Another approach
is to set a win goal, such as winning 2x the value of the stop loss,
this results in a breakeven of ROR = 2x(1-ROR), solving, ROR=2/3 or
66%, plugging that in gives a stop limit of 636 bets, (but this is a
high estimate because the tool assumes we will play forever). Kelly
says, if we hit the stop limit, and we can switch to half the bet size
(for example from $2.50 per hand to $1.25), then we should do so,
beginning again with a new stop limit which is half the old one (in
dollars). And, if we get lucky and actually win 2x the amount of the
stop limit, we should double our bet per hand (for example from $2.50
to $5.00), again beginning our record keeping again, this time with
double the old stop limit (in dollars). This win goal actually reduces
our risk of hitting our stop loss a bit, since we are no longer trying
to play forever. There is a Kelly number for every positive game, you
can get it with this tool: http://www.jazbo.com/poker/kellyp.html .
For FPDW, the Kelly number is 2924 bets, the Kelly stop limit would be
2924/2 = 1462 bets ($1827.50 on 5 coin quarters). Playing this way,
there is a 1/3 chance of hitting the stop limit and either stopping to
rebuild the gambling funds or halving the bet per hand and starting
again, and there is a 2/3 chance of hitting the win goal (2x the stop
loss) and moving up to double the bet per hand.