I get the multi-money mailers from Palms at the 8x$40 or 8x$50 level
(depending on their mood, how the Cubs are doing, ...?) and some of
those offers are one-day wonders. For that much money I find a way
to drag my carcass down there even if I'm otherwise occupied.
I almost always do one of two things: if I'm short of time, I play
the $40 through once and then cash out regardless of the result. If
I have an hour or so, I slap in a $100 bill and then play until 1) I
bust out or 2) Reach $200. If the freeplay occurs on a day which
I'll be playing anyway (and this would only be a 3x points day),
then I just meld the freeplay into my initial buyin and play away,
usually $1 DB, DDB, or NSUD for several hours; on those days I
average about $22,000 coin-in. I will only play these breakeven (or
less) games when the comp rate of .75 (with the 3x pts) justifies
the play. Even so, the swings are pretty healthy.
Since the only time I play quarters nowadays is when I'm processing
free play, I thought I'd stop and take a look at this year so far.
Machines: FPDW, FPJW (.25)
Coin-in: approx. $2000 in freeplay plus 3 hrs/mo @ 800 hands/hr x 7
months
Total coin-in: $23,000
Total hands played: 18,200
Net result: +$4,400 (This number treats existing freeplay as "money
in the bank" even though it really isn't until it's run through the
machine once.)
FIVE sets of deuces on FPDW (and only about 1/3 of the play was on
FPDW)
THREE five of a kinds on FPJW
THREE royals (one on FPDW, two on FPDW)
Many winning sessions with lotsa wild royals, straight flushes, etc.
So I'm up 19% on a play that "should" return about .7%. What does
this prove? Absolutely nothing; the sample size is too small. I must
be about four standard deviations to the right, though.
Corollary: Somewhere out there, there's someone who gets THRASHED
every time he tries to play off his free play, and is convinced that
the machine goes into "death mode" when he inputs the freeplay into
it.
It just goes to show you that in the absurdly small sample size that
is our lives, we can't expect ANYTHING to come out as it "should". A
large percentage of the players on this board who are knowledgeable
and play perfectly will nonetheless be lifetime losers. Conversely,
Grandma Crusty over there, who throws away the 3's from QQ33x and
holds all A10's, is ahead fifty grand lifetime and wins all the
drawings. Or to put it another way, when my niece says, "No fair!" I
just nod and say, "Exactly!"
