For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
Short Term = How many hands?
Long Term = How many hands?
What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
Thanks in advance.
~FK
Long Term = when they pry my player's card from my cold dead hands.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
Short Term = How many hands?
Long Term = How many hands?
What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
Frank,
In my definitely non-professional opinion, I perceive these definitions as follows: (somewhat)
a) Short Term: however many hands a player plays on one trip to the casino (this could encompass an entire day, a few hours, etc, it could probably even include one *trip* to Las Vegas for those who live out of town, which could then be anywhere from one day to five days most likely). Since players play at varying speeds, I definte this not in actual "hands" as you can see.
b) Long Term: 20 billion hands. In other words, infinity.
Valerie
__________ Information from ESET NOD32 Antivirus, version of virus signature database 6260 (20110702) __________
The message was checked by ESET NOD32 Antivirus.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
..... bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
Short Term = How many hands?
Long Term = How many hands?
What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
Thanks in advance.
~FK
This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
___________________________
Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
___________________________
How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:
You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
..... bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
>
> Short Term = How many hands?
>
> Long Term = How many hands?
>
> What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
>
> Thanks in advance.
>
> ~FK
>
We are talking apples and oranges here, concerning long term and short term, as far as I am concerned. To my mind, my whole lifetime represents my "long term". That is, my entire lifetime represents all the hands I will ever play. Is is tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand, millions, tens of million? Who knows? Who cares?
But, when I go on a specific gambling trip, usually 2-6 days, I have in mind how many hands I will probably want to play during that trip. This, in my terminology, is my "short term". That is, the total number of hands I will play during this one trip.
Now, before leaving for Las Vegas or Atlantic City or wherever, I want to know how much money I should bring with me, so that I can play as much as I want and not run out of money. First, I decide how many hands I wish to play (10,000, 20,000, more, less, whatever), what game I wish to play (JOB, NSUD, BP, whatever) and at what level I want to play ($0.05, $0.25, $1.00, $5.00, whatever).
Now, this is where the short term risk of ruin software comes in. I run the software with a sufficient variety bankrolls ($500, $1,000, $5,000, $10,000, whatever), until I obtain a risk of ruin that I am comfortable with (0.1%, 1%, 5%, whatever). That determines how money I must bring with me on this trip.
I hope this explains my concept of "short term" and "risk of ruin".
..... bl
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
___________________________Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
___________________________How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
>
> You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
>
> One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
>
> ..... bl
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> >
> > Short Term = How many hands?
> >
> > Long Term = How many hands?
> >
> > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
>
I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
___________________________Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
___________________________How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
>
> You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
>
> One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
>
> ..... bl
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> >
> > Short Term = How many hands?
> >
> > Long Term = How many hands?
> >
> > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
>
It depends on the game, and depends on how confident you want to be that you're in the "long term". It's been a few years since I looked at it, and once I determined we play enough to reach the "long term" I forgot how I arrived at it 
LOL
For each game, there's a number of hands where you can be XX.X% sure that your result will match the probable outcome of the game given accurate play.
Someone who deals with this more frequently and has the math in on the front of their brain vs. buried under lots of rubble will give you a better answer.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play.
LONG TERM:
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep"
And when he finished speakin'
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even
And in his final words
I found an ace that I could keep
You've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's done
SHORT TERM:
When you wake up the next morning
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
We consider ourselves LONG-term players and we have played about
6 million hands in our career (two people combined)
We average about 500K hands in a year. (single line).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
___________________________Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
___________________________How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
>
> You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
>
> One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
>
> ..... bl
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> >
> > Short Term = How many hands?
> >
> > Long Term = How many hands?
> >
> > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> >
> > Thanks in advance.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
>
Those lyrics are for a poker table gambler.
In the context of today's VP environment, I like these lyrics:
"...Is that all there is, is that all there is
If that's all there is my friends, then let's keep dancing
Let's break out the booze and have a ball
If that's all there is..."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is_That_All_There_Is%3F
"...The lyrics of this existentialist song are written from the point of view of a person who is disillusioned with events in life that are supposedly unique experiences..."
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, GURU PERF <guruperf@...> wrote:
LONG TERM:
Every gambler knows
That the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away
And knowin' what to keep
'Cause every hand's a winner
And every hand's a loser
And the best that you can hope for
Is to die in your sleep"And when he finished speakin'
He turned back toward the window
Crushed out his cigarette
And faded off to sleep
And somewhere in the darkness
The gambler he broke even
And in his final words
I found an ace that I could keepYou've got to know when to hold 'em
Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away
And know when to run
You never count your money
When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin'
When the dealin's doneSHORT TERM:
When you wake up the next morning
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
What is N0 you ask?
N0 = variance/(edge^2) hands
At less than N0 hands, luck (standard deviation) dominates, at more than N0 hands, skill (edge) dominates, at exactly N0 hands the two are equal.
The term comes from one of the blackjack books, I forget which one. Of course it applies to any gamble, which includes the stock market, and actually it probably originates with stock traders.
http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Bank_NO.htm
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
Short Term = How many hands?
Long Term = How many hands?
What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
Thanks in advance.
~FK
"and actually it probably
originates with stock traders."
The keepers of the "science of variance" are Acutuaries.
See: http://www.variancejournal.org/
"....Variance: Advancing the Science of Risk is published semi-annually by the Casualty Actuarial Society. Its peer-reviewed articles focus on original practical and theoretical research in non-life actuarial science and related areas in the science of risk. And it puts practical and relevant research in the hands of practitioners more quickly than ever before..."
The Wizard of Odds is an Actuary (3rd level of priesthood I belive).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
What is N0 you ask?
N0 = variance/(edge^2) hands
At less than N0 hands, luck (standard deviation) dominates, at more than N0 hands, skill (edge) dominates, at exactly N0 hands the two are equal.
The term comes from one of the blackjack books, I forget which one. Of course it applies to any gamble, which includes the stock market, and actually it probably originates with stock traders.
40 hours per week/weekend (the typical benchmark for "fulltime") at 1000 hands per hour comes out to 2 million hands per year. I have heard of gamblers/insomniacs with million hands per month habits.
10 hours per week/weekend (the typical benchmark for "part time") at 500 hands per hour comes out to 250,000 hands per year.
10 hours per month at 300 hands per hour comes out to 36,000 hands per year.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> How many hands people play in a day is not relevant. Only how many hands they have ever played and ever will. A yearly average might come in handy.
>
> I need to know the difference in total play volume for the analysis I'm doing. I'm assuming that short term players play less hands in a year, or in a lifetime than full time players, or there would be no difference.
>
> There is no right or wrong answer to this. I'm just accumulating data.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@> wrote:
> >
> > You should check out the risk of ruin (short term) calculations that are performed by Dunbar's spread sheet and/or Video Poker for Winners.
> >
> > One inputs a pay table, the number of hands one wishes to play, a denomination, and your bankroll amount. It grinds a while and spits out the percentage of times that you will lose your entire bankroll, under those specific conditions.
> >
> > ..... bl
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
> > >
> > > Short Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > Long Term = How many hands?
> > >
> > > What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
> > >
> > > Thanks in advance.
> > >
> > > ~FK
> > >
> >
>
I heard some time ago that in VP in general, after a million hands played, one has about a 99% chance of having a result that is within 1% of EV. I have considered 1 million hands long term. Its far more than almost anyone does in a lifetime. I am about there myself, more or less. I would be dead or paralyzed before I played 2 million hands in one year.
My wife and I combined are still in the short term. We spend 24 days a year in Vegas and have done so for more than 10 years. My guess is we have played 3.8 million hands in total at an avg of only 300,000 hands per year.
If we were to double that I think we would be Long Term, Just my opinion.
Dick
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
I'm finding this discussion on short vs long term play riveting and very instructional for me. I'll be silent from posting for the next couple of days, but I'll check back in on Monday and review what I've missed. Big thanks to everyone for sharing their insights.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
>
>
> This doesn't seem to be answering my question. I may have worded it badly. Let me rephrase the question.
>
> I need to know the difference in lifetime hands that short-term players vs long term players get out.
>
> I'll go first: I consider myself a long term player and I have played about 25,000,000 hands in my career.
>
> I average about 2 million hands a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
>
> Your turn: I consider myself a short-term player and I have played about xxxxxxxxx hands in my career.
>
> I average about xxxxxx hands in a year. (single line)
> ___________________________
Yes, NO is what I was referring to. 
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
What is N0 you ask?
As a side note, FPDW does have an attractive N0. Progressives/banking slots on the other hand tend to have much higher variance. However, a feature of progressives/banking slots is that you can select whatever edge you want, simply by setting (and following) a "start number" (the number at which you start play). With a significant edge, you can compensate for a significant variance.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "casino_camper" <mac_mcclellan@...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
>
> N0 (N-zero) is the tipping point.
> What is N0 you ask?Yes, NO is what I was referring to.
Frank, I'll note that without providing a stronger context within which you want to consider this topic, you invite a lot of verbal masturbation.
That may be exactly what you desire. Sometimes it's useful to leave the parameters loose and allow whatever to shake loose.
However, I can't help to think that you'd be better served by describing the exact aspects of short-term/long-term play consideration in which you're most interested. (I have to think you have a specific focus in mind.)
Still, to play along (right hand being free just now), I'll note that I consider the short-term/long-term distinction largely unmeaningful for most practical applications in play. That is, draw whatever distinctions you may want to, it won't impact how I approach play day to day.
There are key exceptions, of course. But they're relatively few and far between.
And, having said this much, if I were to going stabbing for the distinction between short-term/long-term that I felt was most pertinent to play, it would be the concept of N(0), that has previously been described by NOTI in this thread (and which I have frequently lauded here in the past).
The alternate concept defined in this thread: the play after which one's results are limited to a 1% deviation, doesn't have nearly as much practical utility.
- Harry
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
For an analysis I'm currently doing I need a solid definition of Short term vs Long term play. Since I'm unfamiliar with these concepts I'm having trouble locking down the meaning either on paper or in my mind.
Short Term = How many hands?
Long Term = How many hands?
What is the popular consensus on the tipping point?
Thanks in advance.
~FK
This is exactly my definition, too.
Bonnie W
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:
We are talking apples and oranges here, concerning long term and short term, as far as I am concerned. To my mind, my whole lifetime represents my "long term". That is, my entire lifetime represents all the hands I will ever play. Is is tens of thousands, hundreds of thousand, millions, tens of million? Who knows? Who cares?
But, when I go on a specific gambling trip, usually 2-6 days, I have in mind how many hands I will probably want to play during that trip. This, in my terminology, is my "short term". That is, the total number of hands I will play during this one trip.