vpFREE2 Forums

Short Term Nightmare

#1

My unbelievable result is still ongoing, although it may not qualify as
short-term. In my last two Vegas trips, with approximately 75,000 hands of only
FPDW or FPDW w/progressive, I've managed to hit the ducks once and no royals
at all. Geez.

Don't even want to know the odds of that, is already too depressing!

- Brian in MI

In a message dated 6/25/2007 11:15:36 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
vp_john_nepa@yahoo.com writes:

My most unbelievable short-term result was was dropping two benjie's
at quarter FPDW in about 20 minutes. The first benjie quickly
dissapeared; not one full house or better, and very few
flush/straight/3oak hands. I shrugged my shoulders, fed the machine a
second benjie, and got the same result. For $200, I only got about
200 hands.

But I also remember my best single session, also at FPDW. I bounced
around the break-even mark for about an hour, then a two hour run of
unbelievable deals and draws started. 5oak's and dirty royals were
regular occurrences. I maxed out the credit meter and coins were
dropping into the tray on winning hands. The tray was overflowing
when I "finally" hit quad ducks. It wasn't my biggest profit session
ever, but it certainly was the most FUN I've ever had.

************************************** See what's free at http://www.aol.com.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

My unbelievable result is still ongoing, although it may not

qualify as

short-term. In my last two Vegas trips, with approximately 75,000

hands of only

FPDW or FPDW w/progressive, I've managed to hit the ducks once and

no royals

at all. Geez.

Don't even want to know the odds of that, is already too depressing!

- Brian in MI

Hi Brian,
Sorry to hear about your series of bad luck. The fact that you have
have not hit a hit a royal in 75,000 hands is not too rare of an
event but only hitting only 1 set of quad ducks is very rare indeed.

From poisson distrubution we have :
P(X) = (e(-u) * u^X) / X!

where u is the average number of jackpots hit in n plays and P(X) is
the probabiltity of X jackpot hits in n plays.

For FPDW we have the following cycles:
4 deuces = 4909.10 hands
Natural Royal = 45281.93 hands

u (4 deuces in 75,000 hands) = 15.27774949
u (natural royal in 75,000 hands) = 1.656289827

P( 1 hit of 4 deuces in 75,000 hands) = (e(-15.27774949) *
15.27774949^1) / 1! = 3.54011E-06 (~ 1 in 282476)

P( 0 natural royals in 75,000 hands) = (e(-1.656289827
) * 1.656289827
^0) / 0! = 0.190845739 (~ 1 in 5.24)

Hitting only 4 ducks only once in 75,000 hands is rare as the chances
of this happening are about 1 in 282476. On the flip side of this
event is the lucky player who hits 2 natural royals 2 times in 120
hands which happens about 1 in 285540. I hope in the future you will
get to experience a nice event like that.

Sincerely Scott D.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Marksalot300@... wrote:

#3

My unbelievable result is still ongoing, although it may not

qualify as

short-term. In my last two Vegas trips, with approximately 75,000

hands of only

FPDW or FPDW w/progressive, I've managed to hit the ducks once and

no royals

at all. Geez.

Don't even want to know the odds of that, is already too

depressing!

- Brian in MI

\

Absoulutly horrifying Mark! I though going deuces-less 8 1/2 cycles

was bad! It will end my freind, just hang in there!

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Marksalot300@... wrote: