vpFREE2 Forums

S.C.O.R.E for video poker

#1

I'm not disagreeing with the math. I'm disagreeing with your
logic.

The thing is -- you don't just have one play for the year.
You probably have a whole bunch of stuff you play. It all
works together.

What would you do if you had 10 different casinos and they
each had a point multiplier day to push a game positive and
each had a different game? Each will have a different EV,
variance, N0, # hands, etc. Play or don't play (because of
N0)? Do you look at each of them individually? Or do you
look at everything as a whole? If you look at each
individually, you might realize that you don't cover N0 for
each.....but if you look at them as a whole, then you do.

Now, replace 9 of those casinos with +EV days with 9
different plays.

If you have enough play for the year (or plan on it), then
go ahead and play, even if you can only flip the coin 10
times. If you have no (or very little) play for the year,
then don't play.

···

_____________________________________________

Shagatola wrote: "Would you bet on a coin flip with a 10% edge (pays -1
or +1.2 for heads or tails) if you could only make the bet a
few times?"

"nightoftheiguana2000 wrote:

If I could do it at least 121 times per tax year, I'd

consider it ...

#2

Shagatola wrote: "The thing is -- you don't just have one play for the year. You probably have a whole bunch of stuff you play. It all
works together."

OK, if everything you're playing in a tax year has similar Nzero numbers and betsizes, and the total together puts you over Nzero for the tax year, you're good. 5000 hands of FPDW at one casino would be no good, however 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Vegas at the same betsize would be good. However, if your play includes a game with an unusually high Nzero or betsize compared to the rest, then you have a problem, you can't just count up all your play. The high Nzero or betsize play is an outlier and if you're not playing enough hands of it you're likely taking a loss on that play, which is fine if you have offsetting wins from your other plays, but if it forces you to take a net loss for the tax year, your EV is no longer what you thought it was since you don't get a corresponding tax credit for a gambling loss. Lower EV means more bankroll risk and even longer Nzero numbers and if it goes negative, well ...

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#3

As far as being wary of an "outlier" with a high Nzero...

Consider two scenarios:
1. All your EV comes from plays with the same Nzero as FPDW;
2. The rest of your EV comes from plays with a much lower Nzero than FPDW. (that is, FPDW is an "outlier".)

If all your play has approximately the same hourly EV, you're more likely to be able to justify playing the FPDW game if it IS a high-end outlier than if it isn't. The Nzero for the year will be lower if the rest of your EV comes from lower Nzero play.

In fact, even playing 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Las Vegas is unlikely to get you to its Nzero of 445,000 hands. You'd have to play at 90 casinos.

Here is the range of outcomes for 5000 hands of $10 FPDW: (for $1, divide win/loss by 10, etc)

                   RESULT PROBABILITY lose more than 40000 0% lose 30000-40000 0.1% lose 20000-30000 5% lose 10000-20000 21% lose up to 10000 30% win up to 10000 21% win 10000-20000 10% win 20000-30000 6% win 30000-40000 4% win 40000-50000 2% win more than 50000 2%

As NOTI pointed out, the chance of losing is 55%. But there's no question in my mind that if you had this 5000-hand opportunity on Dec 31, and you were $30K ahead for the year, and your bankroll is at least the Kelly bankroll of $147,000 (for $10 FPDW), then going for that $1900 of EV is the correct decision.

Similarly, if it's the beginning of the year, and you have solid expectation of being able to play enough low Nzero games during the year to put yourself well in the clear of a $30K loss (and you have the Kelly bankroll), then it's correct to go for the 5000-hand FPDW play.

Notice that none of this violates NOTI's absolutely correct admonishment to avoid the tax consequences of a losing year. That's valuable advice that's seldom brought up and too often ignored.

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote :

Shagatola wrote: "The thing is -- you don't just have one play for the year. You probably have a whole bunch of stuff you play. It all
works together."

OK, if everything you're playing in a tax year has similar Nzero numbers and betsizes, and the total together puts you over Nzero for the tax year, you're good. 5000 hands of FPDW at one casino would be no good, however 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Vegas at the same betsize would be good. However, if your play includes a game with an unusually high Nzero or betsize compared to the rest, then you have a problem, you can't just count up all your play. The high Nzero or betsize play is an outlier and if you're not playing enough hands of it you're likely taking a loss on that play, which is fine if you have offsetting wins from your other plays, but if it forces you to take a net loss for the tax year, your EV is no longer what you thought it was since you don't get a corresponding tax credit for a gambling loss. Lower EV means more bankroll risk and even longer Nzero numbers and if it goes negative, well ...

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Dunbar wrote: "In fact, even playing 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Las Vegas is unlikely to get you to its Nzero of 445,000 hands. You'd have to play at 90 casinos."

I'm just nitpicking but I thought there was a little over 100 casinos in Las Vegas. Of course few of them actually have FPDW, and probably at least half of them are just grind joints, but that's a seperate issue.

Dunbar wrote: "But there's no question in my mind that if you had this 5000-hand opportunity on Dec 31, and you were $30K ahead for the year, and your bankroll is at least the Kelly bankroll of $147,000 (for $10 FPDW), then going for that $1900 of EV is the correct decision."

I agree, you should put a stop loss limit in of $30K, so you don't take your net tax year results below zero.

Dunbar wrote: "Similarly, if it's the beginning of the year, and you have solid expectation of being able to play enough low Nzero games during the year to put yourself well in the clear of a $30K loss (and you have the Kelly bankroll), then it's correct to go for the 5000-hand FPDW play. "

This one is slightly trickier since you don't actually have the $30K tax buffer yet. You might be digging yourself a hole here. You should put some probability number on the chances of clearing at least $30K for the rest of the year and go from there. What if this is the year the casinos all tighten up? What if you suffer some medical emergency and can't commit enough time to gambling this year? What if some hacker hacks into your bank account and steals your gambling bankroll, and so on. Go through the "what-ifs?" You should also consider the psychological consequences, this could be a highly disappointing and demoralizing gambling year if you have to hustle your butt off just to avoid a tax loss.

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#5

The part of my post that was supposed to be a table showing the probability of various results of a 5000-hand FPDW play came out a run-on mess when posted. Let me try to post that table one more time:

Here is the range of outcomes for 5000 hands of $10 FPDW: (for $1, divide win/loss by 10, etc)

RESULT PROBABILITY
lose more than 40000, 0%
lose 30000-40000, 0.1%
lose 20000-30000, 5%
lose 10000-20000, 21%
lose up to 10000, 30%
win up to 10000, 21%
win 10000-20000, 10%
win 20000-30000, 6%
win 30000-40000, 4%
win 40000-50000, 2%
win more than 50000, 2%

Hopefully that will work better!

--Dunbar

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote :

As far as being wary of an "outlier" with a high Nzero...

Consider two scenarios:
1. All your EV comes from plays with the same Nzero as FPDW;
2. The rest of your EV comes from plays with a much lower Nzero than FPDW. (that is, FPDW is an "outlier".)

If all your play has approximately the same hourly EV, you're more likely to be able to justify playing the FPDW game if it IS a high-end outlier than if it isn't. The Nzero for the year will be lower if the rest of your EV comes from lower Nzero play.

In fact, even playing 5000 hands of FPDW at every casino in Las Vegas is unlikely to get you to its Nzero of 445,000 hands. You'd have to play at 90 casinos.

Here is the range of outcomes for 5000 hands of $10 FPDW: (for $1, divide win/loss by 10, etc)

RESULT PROBABILITY lose more than 40000 0% lose 30000-40000 0.1% lose 20000-30000 5% lose 10000-20000 21% lose up to 10000 30% win up to 10000 21% win 10000-20000 10% win 20000-30000 6% win 30000-40000 4% win 40000-50000 2% win more than 50000 2%

As NOTI pointed out, the chance of losing is 55%. But there's no question in my mind that if you had this 5000-hand opportunity on Dec 31, and you were $30K ahead for the year, and your bankroll is at least the Kelly bankroll of $147,000 (for $10 FPDW), then going for that $1900 of EV is the correct decision.

Similarly, if it's the beginning of the year, and you have solid expectation of being able to play enough low Nzero games during the year to put yourself well in the clear of a $30K loss (and you have the Kelly bankroll), then it's correct to go for the 5000-hand FPDW play.

Notice that none of this violates NOTI's absolutely correct admonishment to avoid the tax consequences of a losing year. That's valuable advice that's seldom brought up and too often ignored.

--Dunbar

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#6

Another way to do this is to isolate the royal return.

So for 5000 hands of FPDW maxEV strategy:

EV = -50 bets + 10.5% chance of a royal

For 5000 hands of FPDW max non-royals strategy (set rf=0):

EV = -47 bets + 7.8% chance of a royal

For 5000 hands of JOB maxEV strategy:

EV = -122 bets + 11.6% chance of a royal

For 5000 hands of JOB max non-royals strategy (set rf=0):

EV = -103 bets + 6.2% chance of a royal

For 5000 hands of DB maxEV strategy:

EV = -75 bets + 9.9% chance of a royal

For 5000 hands of DB max non-royals strategy (set rf=0):

EV = -65 bets + 6.3% chance of a royal

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