The late Lenny Frome wrote in "America's National Game of Chance", pp 164-165 in an article "The Royal Buster Strategy" that there are a few plays that can be made to increase your frequency of a royal by 25% in return for getting an overall 1/2 a percent lower return (i.e 99% instead of 99%). There are times we would all have preferred to go for it but didn't. I once held 3 to the royal J-Q-K suited and another J and a junk card. Was playing a 4K paycheck promo at the Pioneer where they gave you up to $100 with a 4K coupon -played dollars, I kept the J-J and you all know what 2 cards came up next.
denflo60 <dennis.florence@worldnet.att.net> wrote: --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:
denflo60 wrote:
> I know all the Optimum play rules including penalty cards
> for several games, but but since I never will reach the long
term
> perfect bell curve shape in my playing lifetime I deviate from
> optimum play rules because they may not be optimum for me
(relatively
> few hands of 100 way play at max coin in) and I have I very high
> risk/reward tolerance. Yes I need some pure luck to win.
Another member notes that short or long-term, optimum strategy is
what
will yield the highest expected return. I'll add my 2 cents.
I respect the choice of any player to adopt the strategy that they
prefer. But the belief that one won't "reach the long term" is
fallacious reasoning and doesn't hold up.
Discussions of the long-term center around the fact that it isn't
until after a great many hands of play that the return from
infrequently occurring hands can be looked to fall fairly close to
expectation. However, the far predominant component of vp play is
derived from very frequently occurring hands.
To the extent that strategy deviations shift away from these hands
toward rarer, higher paying hands (and that is almost always the
case), it is almost a dead certainty that you will suffer a
shortfall
in overall return related to these hands.
The tradeoff may be that you have a greater probability of hitting
the
higher paying hands (royals, quad aces, etc.), but the confidence of
such hits still runs all over the place. In exchange, you can't
avoid
the fact that on average you can look for an overall reduction in
return. (And you must still beat the increased expected number of
hits resultant from the strategy shift to beat the odds.)
Now, tell us that you deviate from optimum strategy because you like
to take a shot at big hands (grasping the inherent reduced EV) and
I'll tell you that your play choice entirely makes sense for you.
However, reason that optimum play economics don't make sense for you
because you won't play out the "long term" and I'll suggest that you
may be misguided in your strategy choice.
- Harry
Harry: I always respect your comments. My variations to general
strategy deals primarily with being deaalt three cards to a Royal.
As you know depending on the game and the three cards, hpolding them
may or may not be the optimal play. I may choose to hold these three
cards even if it isn't correct to do so to try for a bigger score.
When I'm in Vegas my average play for $1.00 100 way is about$300K per
day. Its a lot of money but not a lot of dealt hands. I allow
myself $30K to start a group of sessions of JOB. I just finished up
a session on VPW that bankrupted me at $833K for about a 3.56% loss
on coin in hardly the .54% loss using perfect play. When in Vegas if
I had two of these in a row, which can happen I quit playing for the
trip.
I played another session of DDB on VPW using $50K to start and went
bankupt at $981,500 again for a 5% loss instead of the 1% long term
loss. Again having two sessions in a row like this in a row is not
inconceivable.
Especially in JOB you just cannot put enough money in the machines
allowing for all the W2G machine 2 pair lockup payouts to get to
the long run quickly or in a single trip. You can have them overide
the lock up but I don't like having people standinnf behind me
keeping tally. Its a psychological thing. Last year I played $6M+
total and I still don't feel I got to the long run. Now I know what I
do doesn't make mathematical sense but the thrill of a possible
larger payouts sometime outweighs the slow and steadiness of optimal
play.
We have three Casinos in Detroit which I never visit. The wife and I
love Las Vegas for being Las Vegas. Celine, Bette,Elton etc plus
restaurants like Alex at the Wynn and its 5 star suites make it all
worth it to me. I try to win and I like to win and I love Video
poker as its the only game we play but if I lose I still find Vegas
relaxing and enjoyable and they take good care of you there.
As an aside since my retirement some years back I have been
arbitraging foreign postage stamps and playing the $/euro swings,
albeit over a longer time frame quite successfully. High risk/reward
has been my life. Right or wrong I believe playing against a
random number generator in VP is little different than playing
against International Currency Speculators.
Again, I do repect your comments. Denny
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