vpFREE2 Forums

RTP for Jumbo Jackpot

#1

Hi Everyone,

Stations Casinos have a popular promotion which awards players $50 in
free slot play if the Jumbo Jackpot hits during their play session. The
jackpot starts at 100,000 and is guaranteed to hit by 150,000.

This analysis will focus on the RTP for free slot play first then
combine the jackpot award into the RTP. If we assume the jackpot has an
equal chance to hit during any time of the day (which may not be the
case) then the win frequency for the free slot play is proportional to
the number of hours played during the month times the number of jackpot
hits per month.

The number of hours in a month assuming 30 days per month is 720 so we
have the following:

             HF(FS) = (x * N) / 720, where x = number of
hours played per month

N = number of jackpots hit per month.

Our monthly EV in dollars can be then be calculated:

             EV(FS) = (50 * x * N)/ 720 = 0.0694 * x * N.

Similarly for the Jumbo Jackpot assuming each active player has the same
chance to win the prize (which might not be the case) the EV is:

             EV(JB) = ((125,000 * x * N) / 720 )* (1/p), where p =
number of players active
when the jackpot hits.

                         = (173.61 * x * N) / p.

Out total expectation for this promotion is therefore:

              EV = EV(FS) + EV(JB) = x* N * (0.0694 + 173.61/p).

Now our RTP can be calculated:

             RTP% = (EV / CI) * 100, where CI = Coin
in per month

             CI = x * R, where
x = number of hours played per
month.

R = Coin in per hour

             RTP % = (N * (6.94 + 17361/p))/R, where N = number of
jackpots hit per

month.

R = Coin in per hour

p = number of players active when

the jackpot hits.

             With this formula we can now calculate how much this
promotion adds to our RTP. Let's say the jackpot hits on average 4
times per month and when it hits on average 10,000 players are active
and assume a video poker player is playing 700 hands per hour single
line game with 5 coin max bet then the table below shows the added value
this promotion has for different denominations.

denom

wager ($)

rtp (free slot play)

rtp (Jumbo)

rtp (total)

1¢

35

0.7931

0.1984

0.9916

5¢

175

0.1586

0.0397

0.1983

25¢

875

0.0317

0.0079

0.0397

50¢

1750

0.0159

0.0040

0.0198

$1

3500

0.0079

0.0020

0.0099

We see that this promotion adds more to the overall return percentage
the less you bet per hour. I would guess that a good proportion of slot
and video poker players at Station properties fall within the $175-$875
coin in per hour range. For these players (using the parameter values
from above) this promotion is essentially a cash back program which
yields ~0.2% - 0.04% respectively. Unfortunately for higher level
players the promotion doesn't offer much.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

You'll make a fine casino hustler, sde11001. I wouldn't have used as
long of an equation as you did. I would have probably just done an
estimation for something like this. But your post is meat and
potatoes on how real professionals analyze plays.

Hi Everyone,

Stations Casinos have a popular promotion which awards players $50

in

free slot play if the Jumbo Jackpot hits during their play

session. The

jackpot starts at 100,000 and is guaranteed to hit by 150,000.

This analysis will focus on the RTP for free slot play first then
combine the jackpot award into the RTP. If we assume the jackpot

has an

equal chance to hit during any time of the day (which may not be the
case) then the win frequency for the free slot play is proportional

to

the number of hours played during the month times the number of

jackpot

hits per month.

The number of hours in a month assuming 30 days per month is 720 so

we

have the following:

             HF(FS) = (x * N) / 720, where x = number

of

hours played per month

N = number of jackpots hit per month.

Our monthly EV in dollars can be then be calculated:

             EV(FS) = (50 * x * N)/ 720 = 0.0694 * x * N.

Similarly for the Jumbo Jackpot assuming each active player has the

same

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "sdel1001" <sdel1001@...> wrote:

chance to win the prize (which might not be the case) the EV is:

             EV(JB) = ((125,000 * x * N) / 720 )* (1/p), where p

=

number of players active
when the jackpot hits.

                         = (173.61 * x * N) / p.

Out total expectation for this promotion is therefore:

              EV = EV(FS) + EV(JB) = x* N * (0.0694 + 173.61/p).

Now our RTP can be calculated:

             RTP% = (EV / CI) * 100, where CI =

Coin

in per month

             CI = x * R,

where

x = number of hours played per
month.

R = Coin in per hour

             RTP % = (N * (6.94 + 17361/p))/R, where N = number

of

jackpots hit per

month.

R = Coin in per hour

p = number of players active when

the jackpot hits.

             With this formula we can now calculate how much this
promotion adds to our RTP. Let's say the jackpot hits on average 4
times per month and when it hits on average 10,000 players are

active

and assume a video poker player is playing 700 hands per hour single
line game with 5 coin max bet then the table below shows the added

value

this promotion has for different denominations.

denom

wager ($)

rtp (free slot play)

rtp (Jumbo)

rtp (total)

1¢

35

0.7931

0.1984

0.9916

5¢

175

0.1586

0.0397

0.1983

25¢

875

0.0317

0.0079

0.0397

50¢

1750

0.0159

0.0040

0.0198

$1

3500

0.0079

0.0020

0.0099

We see that this promotion adds more to the overall return

percentage

the less you bet per hour. I would guess that a good proportion of

slot

and video poker players at Station properties fall within the $175-

$875

coin in per hour range. For these players (using the parameter

values

from above) this promotion is essentially a cash back program which
yields ~0.2% - 0.04% respectively. Unfortunately for higher level
players the promotion doesn't offer much.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Interesting. But how would a real professional analyze something as
unlikely as winning the Jumbo Jackpot? Almost all the value in that
equation comes from actually winning the jackpot, not the $50. Using
sde's estimates, if you play 80 hours per month there, you are there
1/9 of the time and so you have a 1/9 chance of being one of 10,000
people there when the jackpot hits, which he uses 4x per month as an
average. So your chances of hitting it in a given month are
1/9*4/10000. I'm not much for math, but if I'm doing this right,
that's an average of once every 1,875 years, if you play 80 hours per
month. I suppose that if I stood out behind the bank 80 hours per
month for 1,875 years, eventually a Brinks truck will drop a bag with
$150K in it, but I can't base my life's EV on it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:

You'll make a fine casino hustler, sde11001. I wouldn't have used as
long of an equation as you did. I would have probably just done an
estimation for something like this. But your post is meat and
potatoes on how real professionals analyze plays.

#4

Hittable odds are always a major consideration. I'm sure Megabucks
goes positive at some point but the 50,000,000 to one odds makes it
unplayable to me especially with the 16% drop between jackpots. But
with the Jumbo Jackpots the $50 free play it hittable. We're not
talking about major bucks here, but for a quarter deuce player who
puts in many hours per month it's a nice little addon. --- In
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dddddmike" <ddddmike@...> wrote:

>
> You'll make a fine casino hustler, sde11001. I wouldn't have

used as

> long of an equation as you did. I would have probably just done

an

> estimation for something like this. But your post is meat and
> potatoes on how real professionals analyze plays.
>
>

Interesting. But how would a real professional analyze something

as

unlikely as winning the Jumbo Jackpot? Almost all the value in

that

equation comes from actually winning the jackpot, not the $50.

Using

sde's estimates, if you play 80 hours per month there, you are

there

1/9 of the time and so you have a 1/9 chance of being one of 10,000
people there when the jackpot hits, which he uses 4x per month as

an

average. So your chances of hitting it in a given month are
1/9*4/10000. I'm not much for math, but if I'm doing this right,
that's an average of once every 1,875 years, if you play 80 hours

per

month. I suppose that if I stood out behind the bank 80 hours per
month for 1,875 years, eventually a Brinks truck will drop a bag

with

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@> wrote:
$150K in it, but I can't base my life's EV on it.