vpFREE2 Forums

royal less streaks

#1

rgmustain wrote ...

I recently drew one card to a RF ending a streak of between 400-500
attempts without a hit in over a year and 9 months (Interestingly, it
was exactly the same draw, the 10 of clubs). As bad as this seems I
was only 3-4 RFs behind "normal" since I hit several 3 card draws
during this period.

4 to a royal comes up about every 2700 hands. 400 occurrences means about 1.08 Million hands. Your chances of getting dealt 4 to the royal and then filling it in is 1/2700 * 1/47 or 1/126,900.

P( no royal in 400 1 card draws) = about 1/5450 times. But being behind by 3 royals in over a million hands is not unusual at all. I guess you can look at a subset of royals hit and say that you aren't getting your share of 1 card draws. However, you are getting more than your share of 2 card RF draws.

#2

Completely agree with your numbers. Actually I used the 2700 number
to compute the number 400-500 since I did not have an exact count of
actual 4 card draws.

I estimated around 1.3 million hands/2764 = 470. However, with two
wild cards in the game (that one would keep), the number is actually
a little less. It's interesting to know this was over 1 in 5000.

Thanks, Dick

PS. Haven't had another one card draw since ... and just one RF in
the last 3 months. Ouch.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...>
wrote:

rgmustain wrote ...

I recently drew one card to a RF ending a streak of between 400-500
attempts without a hit in over a year and 9 months (Interestingly,

it

was exactly the same draw, the 10 of clubs). As bad as this seems I
was only 3-4 RFs behind "normal" since I hit several 3 card draws
during this period.

4 to a royal comes up about every 2700 hands. 400 occurrences

means about 1.08 Million hands. Your chances of getting dealt 4 to
the royal and then filling it in is 1/2700 * 1/47 or 1/126,900.

P( no royal in 400 1 card draws) = about 1/5450 times. But being

behind by 3 royals in over a million hands is not unusual at all. I
guess you can look at a subset of royals hit and say that you aren't
getting your share of 1 card draws. However, you are getting more
than your share of 2 card RF draws.