Royal Buster Strategy on Progressives

[Joe_Schober]

Rob Singer wrote...

Joe:

You seem to have become involved in the artificial methods those who
sell strategy want you to believe rather than in the reality of the
business you support, i.e., the gambling business.

I don't know what "artificial methods" you're referring to. I play standard max EV strategy, and my wife and I have been fortunate enough to be in the black (cash, not counting comps) playing video poker over the past several years. It's just a hobby for us, but it's nice to have a hobby that actually earns a few bucks.

The "positive EV" machines, however, many times are the first to go
simply because in times of the suits screaming for more profit
margin, an operations manager need only lower the pay tables and his
effort for the quarter is acknowledged--thereby keeping his or her
job. And since casinos are in business solely for making profit on a
growing basis, belt-tightening will always be a part of the solution.
It is quite simply nothing more than that.

Actually, if your assertion is correct that humans can't make consistent money through advantage video poker, I think it would be easy for a casino to make a huge profit off a high-stakes +EV game. Let's think through a scenario.

Let's consider a casino that currently has no "positive opportunities", so no advantage players visit. Said casino installs a $100 FPDW machine, which causes highly bankrolled advantage players to swarm in like flies. You have argued that humans can't make consistent money off this situation, so let's say that the players are achieving an actual return of 99.9% (0.1% to the house) -- a pretty large discount from the game's "optimal EV" of 100.76%. At $500 a deal, that's 0.1% * $500 = $0.50/deal profit to the house. Assuming moderate play speed of 600 hands/hr, that's $300/hr profit to the casino off that game. Let's say it gets played 6 hours a day, 200 days a year -- that's $360,000 profit per year for the casino off that one single machine. That's pretty decent money. And it's money the casino wouldn't otherwise be making, since those advantage players wouldn't be playing the property were it not for the +EV opportunity.

Seems to make perfect sense for the casino. I look forward to seeing the game on the floor.

--Joe

[Mickey]

Rob Singer wrote...

> Joe:
>
> You seem to have become involved in the artificial methods those

who

> sell strategy want you to believe rather than in the reality of

the

> business you support, i.e., the gambling business.
>

I don't know what "artificial methods" you're referring to. I

play

standard max EV strategy, and my wife and I have been fortunate

enough

to be in the black (cash, not counting comps) playing video poker

over

the past several years. It's just a hobby for us, but it's nice

to

have a hobby that actually earns a few bucks.

> The "positive EV" machines, however, many times are the first to

go

> simply because in times of the suits screaming for more profit
> margin, an operations manager need only lower the pay tables and

his

> effort for the quarter is acknowledged--thereby keeping his or her
> job. And since casinos are in business solely for making profit

on a

> growing basis, belt-tightening will always be a part of the

solution.

> It is quite simply nothing more than that.

Actually, if your assertion is correct that humans can't make
consistent money through advantage video poker, I think it would

be

easy for a casino to make a huge profit off a high-stakes +EV

game.

Let's think through a scenario.

Let's consider a casino that currently has no "positive
opportunities", so no advantage players visit. Said casino

installs a

$100 FPDW machine, which causes highly bankrolled advantage players

to

swarm in like flies. You have argued that humans can't make
consistent money off this situation, so let's say that the players

are

achieving an actual return of 99.9% (0.1% to the house) -- a

pretty

large discount from the game's "optimal EV" of 100.76%. At $500 a
deal, that's 0.1% * $500 = $0.50/deal profit to the house.

Assuming

moderate play speed of 600 hands/hr, that's $300/hr profit to the
casino off that game. Let's say it gets played 6 hours a day, 200
days a year -- that's $360,000 profit per year for the casino off

that

one single machine. That's pretty decent money. And it's money

the

casino wouldn't otherwise be making, since those advantage players
wouldn't be playing the property were it not for the +EV

opportunity.

Seems to make perfect sense for the casino. I look forward to

seeing

the game on the floor.

--Joe

AND, have you ever noticed that high roller sections are always
empty. I've spent lots, lots, lots, lots, lots, of time in the
casinos these past 12 years. The high roller sections are empty
morning, noon, and night. Your plan would definitely put people in
those seats. I just can't imagine why the execs are so blind to
this.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Joe Schober <afljoeys@...> wrote:

[Rob_Singer2]

I don't know what "artificial methods" you're referring to.

That refers to how AP's claim to be winning when they're actually
losing, but are able to make up a winner by arbitrarily valuing all
the slot club fluff--like Jean Scott recently admitted to doing.

  I play

standard max EV strategy, and my wife and I have been fortunate

enough to be in the black (cash, not counting comps) playing video
poker over the past several years. It's just a hobby for us, but
it's nice to have a hobby that actually earns a few bucks.

I've heard a few say that or something similar, but I've heard
greater than a thousand AP's say they lose.

Actually, if your assertion is correct that humans can't make
consistent money through advantage video poker, I think it would

be easy for a casino to make a huge profit off a high-stakes +EV
game. Let's think through a scenario. Let's consider a casino that
currently has no "positive opportunities", so no advantage players
visit.

Right off the bat that's not true. AP's are famous for playing -EV
games (you know, the ones they said they'd never be caught dead at)
and pretending they're +EV with slot club promo fluff--of course,
valued as-required.

  Said casino installs a

$100 FPDW machine, which causes highly bankrolled advantage players

to swarm in like flies.

A bold assumption. By AP's own admission via those ridiculous
bankroll requirement formulas they like to talk about to sound
impressive, the proper bankroll for the $100 FPDW game is around
$1.12million. No real player would risk that on VP when many other
investment opportunities with a far greater potential exist. Only the
truly addicted would take on such a machine--as we recently saw when
Caesar's put one in.

You have argued that humans can't make
consistent money off this situation, so let's say that the players

are achieving an actual return of 99.9% (0.1% to the house) -- a
pretty large discount from the game's "optimal EV" of 100.76%. At
$500 a deal, that's 0.1% * $500 = $0.50/deal profit to the house.
Assuming moderate play speed of 600 hands/hr,

If you've ever played a $100 machine you'd know that there's no such
thing as 600hph on them. 200 would be more realistic.

that's $300/hr profit to the casino off that game. Let's say it

gets played 6 hours a day, 200 days a year -- that's $360,000 profit
per year for the casino off that one single machine. That's pretty
decent money. And it's money the casino wouldn't otherwise be
making, since those advantage players wouldn't be playing the
property were it not for the +EV opportunity.

Yes, I've had this conversation with many casino managers all over
the state, and I paid most attention to the person at Atlantis that
had the most recent $100 10/7DB machine. Put in a dollar game and it
makes much more profit than the high limit games simply because of a
huge difference in action.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Joe Schober <afljoeys@...> wrote:

[Rob_Singer2]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...>
wrote:

AND, have you ever noticed that high roller sections are always
empty. I've spent lots, lots, lots, lots, lots, of time in the
casinos these past 12 years. The high roller sections are empty
morning, noon, and night. Your plan would definitely put people in
those seats. I just can't imagine why the execs are so blind to
this.

Agreed--high roller sections are almost always empty or sparsely
populated. I'm told the reason for such rooms is mainly to get players
who just won a big jackpot out on the floor, in to give it all back.
The casinos are not as stupid as some players like to make out they
are. They know most gamblers are usually one short step away from being
out of control--esp. after the extreme high of hitting a jackpot. Just
take a look at what Bob Dancer did after his $25RF to confirm that
fact. Casinos know that jackpot-hitting vp addicts will almost always
go in the HL rooms to take a shot at even more winnings (or as in Bob's
case back then, turn around and feverishly look for a higher limit
game) and they are for the most part, right. Aside from that, high
limit games typically have the best pay tables in the casino, so one
would think it would be kind of obvious for AP's to be in there instead
of at the $2 machines out on the floor. But, of course, they aren't,
because most don't have the cash unless they get a lucky hit or two
that gives them false confidence as I stated above.

I'm sure you've spent all the time in casinos you say you have....while
I spent most of my last 10 years at home with my family. A perk from
being a successful professional gambler that has no need to go into
casinos on a daily basis hunting for a long-term +EV play that will
never be attained in a one-time visit.

[Mickey]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "robsinger1111"
<robsinger1111@...> wrote:

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@>
wrote:
> AND, have you ever noticed that high roller sections are always
> empty. I've spent lots, lots, lots, lots, lots, of time in the
> casinos these past 12 years. The high roller sections are empty
> morning, noon, and night. Your plan would definitely put people

in

> those seats. I just can't imagine why the execs are so blind to
> this.

Agreed--high roller sections are almost always empty or sparsely
populated. I'm told the reason for such rooms is mainly to get

players

who just won a big jackpot out on the floor, in to give it all

back.

The casinos are not as stupid as some players like to make out they
are. They know most gamblers are usually one short step away from

being

out of control--esp. after the extreme high of hitting a jackpot.

Just

take a look at what Bob Dancer did after his $25RF to confirm that
fact. Casinos know that jackpot-hitting vp addicts will almost

always

go in the HL rooms to take a shot at even more winnings (or as in

Bob's

case back then, turn around and feverishly look for a higher limit
game) and they are for the most part, right. Aside from that, high
limit games typically have the best pay tables in the casino, so

one

would think it would be kind of obvious for AP's to be in there

instead

of at the $2 machines out on the floor. But, of course, they

aren't,

because most don't have the cash unless they get a lucky hit or two
that gives them false confidence as I stated above.

I'm sure you've spent all the time in casinos you say you

have....while

I spent most of my last 10 years at home with my family. A perk

from

being a successful professional gambler that has no need to go into
casinos on a daily basis hunting for a long-term +EV play that will
never be attained in a one-time visit.

It's my experience that the higher the denom the worse the payscale.
I'm glad you get to spend so much time with your family. But I'm
perfectly happy with my lifestyle too.

[Rob_Singer2]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...>
wrote:

It's my experience that the higher the denom the worse the payscale.
I'm glad you get to spend so much time with your family. But I'm
perfectly happy with my lifestyle too.

I don't know if you frequent the HL rooms but I do, and the pay tables
for the most part are better in there.

I didn't mean to say you can't be happy. I have no clue as to what you
do with your time outside of vp, or if you also have a wife and
children. Everyone seems to have something different going which makes
them happy. I just didn't believe one could be truly happy gambling
without the mental support of another. Could be wrong, but that's my
experience.

[Mickey]

Rob Singer wrote...

> Joe:
>
> You seem to have become involved in the artificial methods those

who

> sell strategy want you to believe rather than in the reality of

the

> business you support, i.e., the gambling business.
>

I don't know what "artificial methods" you're referring to. I

play

standard max EV strategy, and my wife and I have been fortunate

enough

to be in the black (cash, not counting comps) playing video poker

over

the past several years. It's just a hobby for us, but it's nice

to

have a hobby that actually earns a few bucks.

> The "positive EV" machines, however, many times are the first to

go

> simply because in times of the suits screaming for more profit
> margin, an operations manager need only lower the pay tables and

his

> effort for the quarter is acknowledged--thereby keeping his or her
> job. And since casinos are in business solely for making profit

on a

> growing basis, belt-tightening will always be a part of the

solution.

> It is quite simply nothing more than that.

Actually, if your assertion is correct that humans can't make
consistent money through advantage video poker, I think it would

be

easy for a casino to make a huge profit off a high-stakes +EV

game.

Let's think through a scenario.

Let's consider a casino that currently has no "positive
opportunities", so no advantage players visit. Said casino

installs a

$100 FPDW machine, which causes highly bankrolled advantage players

to

swarm in like flies. You have argued that humans can't make
consistent money off this situation, so let's say that the players

are

achieving an actual return of 99.9% (0.1% to the house) -- a

pretty

large discount from the game's "optimal EV" of 100.76%. At $500 a
deal, that's 0.1% * $500 = $0.50/deal profit to the house.

Assuming

moderate play speed of 600 hands/hr, that's $300/hr profit to the
casino off that game. Let's say it gets played 6 hours a day, 200
days a year -- that's $360,000 profit per year for the casino off

that

one single machine. That's pretty decent money. And it's money

the

casino wouldn't otherwise be making, since those advantage players
wouldn't be playing the property were it not for the +EV

opportunity.

Seems to make perfect sense for the casino. I look forward to

seeing

the game on the floor.

--Joe

Joe, your contention could also be applied to FPDW at $1, $5, $10,
and $25 denom. The reason you don't see FPDW even at those denoms is
casinos got their clocks cleaned by pros. The houses lost money on
the machines straight up.

When a casino pulls a play on me they lose my business until they put
another one in. They get absolutely no action from me unless I have
a theoretical win. I've been through this situation countless tines
in the past 12 years.

I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.
I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.
I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.
Over and over and over and over again for the past 12 years.
I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.

And that's why I get to take it easy these days.

···

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Joe Schober <afljoeys@...> wrote:

[Rob_Singer2]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...>
wrote:

Joe, your contention could also be applied to FPDW at $1, $5, $10,
and $25 denom. The reason you don't see FPDW even at those denoms is
casinos got their clocks cleaned by pros. The houses lost money on
the machines straight up.
When a casino pulls a play on me they lose my business until they put

another one in. They get absolutely no action from me unless I have a
theoretical win. I've been through this situation countless tines in
the past 12 years.
> I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.

I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.
I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.
Over and over and over and over again for the past 12 years.
I find play, I kick their ass, they pull the play, I quit playing.

Not surprising you didn't listen to what I said, but did you ever
wonder how it could be that all you so-called "pros" who live by your
slot club cards, are able to simply walk in to a business that's there
only to make money, have every single second of your play tracked,
then "kick their asses" while a few write about and mock those "plays",
and never, ever get 86ed other than by pretend rumor? Oh, and
interesting the casino never kicks yours ass. Now do you see why so
many people hear me and look at all that nonsense as just that?

And that's why I get to take it easy these days.

Sounds like a fabulous way to prepare for you & your family's future
thru social security, your company's 401k plan, that really unimportant
healthcare plan, and don't forget the pension....

[Mickey]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "robsinger1111"
<robsinger1111@...> wrote:

Not surprising you didn't listen to what I said, but did you ever
wonder how it could be that all you so-called "pros" who live by

your

slot club cards, are able to simply walk in to a business that's

there

only to make money, have every single second of your play tracked,
then "kick their asses" while a few write about and mock

those "plays",

and never, ever get 86ed other than by pretend rumor? Oh, and
interesting the casino never kicks yours ass. Now do you see why so
many people hear me and look at all that nonsense as just that?

On the play that I have been working for the past six months, I have
not received one days hotel comp, not one free meal, and no
cashback. I pay my own hotel bill and spring for the meals too.
No one here is giving me anything for free. However, I do accept
free cups of coffee while I'm playing.

Sounds like a fabulous way to prepare for you & your family's

future

thru social security, your company's 401k plan, that really

unimportant

healthcare plan, and don't forget the pension....

The subject is video poker (professional gambling). I have never
tried to delve into your personal affairs. And I never will. That's
your business. My personal business was not, is not, and never will
be any of your business.

[Rob_Singer2]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...>
wrote:

On the play that I have been working for the past six months, I

have

not received one days hotel comp, not one free meal, and no
cashback. I pay my own hotel bill and spring for the meals too.
No one here is giving me anything for free. However, I do accept
free cups of coffee while I'm playing.

Not sure what that means but I'll pull a Dick Mustain here. You just
said you were laying off and not playing, but here you say you're
involved in a play. ??

> Sounds like a fabulous way to prepare for you & your family's
future
> thru social security, your company's 401k plan, that really
unimportant
> healthcare plan, and don't forget the pension....

The subject is video poker (professional gambling). I have never
tried to delve into your personal affairs. And I never will.

That's your business. My personal business was not, is not, and
never will be any of your business.

Just an educated, experience-driven comment. No inquiries.
Regarding me--I've always posted everything about my life, my
finances, my work and my family on my site and sometimes in my books
and articles. And as you've seen here, irritated/envious people
who've not yet read about it like to post all that on the Internet
forums, with the belief that it somehow is a bothersome revelation.

My point above is that you said you're doing nothing now. If you're
an AP then why not be an AP in life? That's the REAL game. I've seen
it all too often and my publishers in LV tell me about it happening
even more: gamblers who play all the time without preparing for their
futures first almost always inevitably crash and burn--sometimes very
violently.

[Mickey]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "robsinger1111"
<robsinger1111@...> wrote:

"mickeycrimm" wrote:
> On the play that I have been working for the past six months, I
have
> not received one days hotel comp, not one free meal, and no
> cashback. I pay my own hotel bill and spring for the meals

too.

> No one here is giving me anything for free. However, I do accept
> free cups of coffee while I'm playing.
     
Rob Wrote:

Not sure what that means but I'll pull a Dick Mustain here. You

just

said you were laying off and not playing, but here you say you're
involved in a play. ??

I still have a play here but I haven't been working on it for just
about the last month now. There's not much left to it now. I'm down
to 4 machines in three different casinos. And this play, while it's
a casino mistake, is worth only $35 an hour.

For several months I had a play on Jackpot Aces that was worth $60+
an hour. It was a huge mistake on the slots techs part. I don't
have time to explain the game but it was a ten-coin nickel game that
came in at 114% including the meters. It was a $60+ per hour game
where I had to run only $450 an hour in action. I had the play on
about 25 machines scattered around the state. I lost every machine
one at a time as they found and corrected their mistakes.

But I had the backup $35 an hour play. It's the same game but the
Aces Full meter starts at only $75 instead of $100. That puts the
game at 108%. I had this game on many machines too, but, like I
said, I'm down to just 4 machines now.

I played heavily until the end of March. I made $30,000 over a six
month span. Yeah, I know, it's not huge money, but it works for me.
Since then I decided to take care of some other projects I've been
meaning to get around to.

Like the Dentist, I hate dentists but it has to be done.

I have a new girlfriend. But I'm not taking it to serious, just
having some fun. "You can take the woman out of the bar but you
can't take the bar out of the woman."

I'm also studying and practicing poker tournaments on Pokerstars.

And, I will admit it, I'm being lazy as hell too. I may not return
to Nevada until this Fall.

I still have 4 machines to torch here. I'll get around to it when I
feel like it.

Rob wrote:

My point above is that you said you're doing nothing now. If you're
an AP then why not be an AP in life? That's the REAL game. I've

seen

it all too often and my publishers in LV tell me about it happening
even more: gamblers who play all the time without preparing for

their

futures first almost always inevitably crash and burn--sometimes

very

violently.

I'm planning for old age. Not retirement, Rob. Retirement is
bullshit. Retire and do what? "Retired" will make a nice epitaph on
my tombstone. Because that is when I will quit. Not one day
before.

As for crashing and burning, that's for the mentally weak. I'm alot
of things but mentally weak is not one of them. No one can take my
skill from me. No one.

[Rob_Singer2]

--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mickeycrimm" <mickeycrimm@...>
wrote:

I still have a play here but I haven't been working on it for just
about the last month now. There's not much left to it now. I'm

down to 4 machines in three different casinos. And this play, while
it's a casino mistake, is worth only $35 an hour. For several months
I had a play on Jackpot Aces that was worth $60+ an hour.

I understand everything you wrote, including the interesting info I
did not paste above. I'm sure you know what I think about that X
amount/hour & 114% etc. stuff--it's nothing more than a state of mind
and doesn't mean squat to anyone except those who walk out a winner.
My "theory" is much more viable because it's reality every time. I
announce how much per hour I've won, and right now in 2008 I'm right
around $3200/hr. on what you may or may not call -EV machines
(depends on the value of the slot club benefits you apply). The
unusually high rate isn't what's important--it's the fact that I am
always making a pretty good rate year in and year out measured only
AFTER I end my sessions. Going in saying "it's a 108% play" is about
as comforting and meaningful as pretending a Democrat's's gonna win
the presidency.

I'm planning for old age. Not retirement, Rob. Retirement is
bullshit. Retire and do what? "Retired" will make a nice epitaph

on my tombstone. Because that is when I will quit. Not one day

before.

I agree--old age, not retirement.

As for crashing and burning, that's for the mentally weak. I'm

alot of things but mentally weak is not one of them. No one can take
my skill from me. No one.

Skill is one thing, and may we all each have our own brand until our
final hours. Having the cash on hand to continue comfortable
lifestyles and at the same time give generous amounts to those whom
we're leaving behind is another. I cannot imagine not being able to
follow thru on either one of those.