vpFREE2 Forums

ROR for negative games

#1

Michael Peck wrote ......

Anyway, for 8,000 hands of single line 9/6 JOB I estimate there's
approximately 95% probability of a total return greater than about
-2290 units. So, $575 ought to do it.

That's actually slightly optimistic because there's always a slight
risk that you could blow your $575 bankroll before playing 8,000
hands. My calculation completely ignores gambler's ruin. It also
ignores cashback.

Some additional numbers: the 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% quantiles are
-2870, -1975, -755, 2970, and 6885 units. There's about a 28%
probability of finishing ahead after 8,000 hands.

So, it looks likt the 99% number is -2870 and the 90% number is -1975? In that case , the 95th number ( -2290 ) fits between those 2, as it should. Looks like you read the quartile numbers left to right and the values right to left.

Even though this is a negative game, the method would be useful for limited time offers, like double royals for a day or even progressives if your time on the machine is limited.

John Zaroff
Delphi Electronics and Safety
313-996-3682 (w)
313-378-2987 ( Cell)
3133782987@vtext.com ( text page)

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#2

>
>Some additional numbers: the 1, 10, 50, 90, and 99% quantiles are
>-2870, -1975, -755, 2970, and 6885 units. There's about a 28%
>probability of finishing ahead after 8,000 hands.

So, it looks likt the 99% number is -2870 and the 90% number is

-1975? In that case , the 95th number ( -2290 ) fits between those 2,
as it should. Looks like you read the quartile numbers left to right
and the values right to left.

Sorry, I pulled a bit of a switcheroo. The 5th percentile of the
distribution is about -2290 units, meaning there's a 5% chance you'll
do worse than that amount (or maybe no better than - doesn't matter).
So, there's a 95% chance you'll do better, which is how I wrote the
first paragraph.

Usually statisticians use "left-tail areas" for quantiles - they're
sorted in increasing order. There's no reason you can't do it the
other way around though except custom.

Mike

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "John.G.Zaroff" <John.G.Zaroff@d...> wrote: