vpFREE2 Forums

RNG Operation

#1

<<So if you get dealt 4 to a Royal, pressing the DRAW button 3 seconds
later will have a different result than pressing it 3 minutes later?>>

No, it won't. The outcome is the same -- you have the same chance of
turning over the last card to RF no matter when the identity of that
card is determined.>>

You will have a different result, won't you? But mathematically it
doesn't matter in the long run?>>>

--Hello everyone. I'm a brand new member of this club. I thought I would
add my 2 cents to this discussion.

To me it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost certainly
be different, but the chances of hitting the royal would be exactly the
same.

Also, it wouldn't matter if you were dealt 5 cards or 10. If you are
dealt 5, you have a one in 47 chance of hitting a royal by drawing the
right card.

If you are dealt 10, there is still one chance in 47 that the card you
need is already underneath your discard.

#2

YES!

.....bl

--Hello everyone. I'm a brand new member of this club. I thought I

would

add my 2 cents to this discussion.

To me it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost

certainly

be different, but the chances of hitting the royal would be

exactly the

same.

Also, it wouldn't matter if you were dealt 5 cards or 10. If you

are

dealt 5, you have a one in 47 chance of hitting a royal by drawing

the

right card.

If you are dealt 10, there is still one chance in 47 that the card

you

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, dija800@w... wrote:

need is already underneath your discard.

#3

<<So if you get dealt 4 to a Royal, pressing the DRAW button 3

seconds

later will have a different result than pressing it 3 minutes later?

No, it won't. The outcome is the same -- you have the same chance of
turning over the last card to RF no matter when the identity of that
card is determined.>>

You will have a different result, won't you? But mathematically it
doesn't matter in the long run?>>>

--Hello everyone. I'm a brand new member of this club. I thought I

would

add my 2 cents to this discussion.

To me it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost

certainly

be different, but the chances of hitting the royal would be exactly

the

same.

Also, it wouldn't matter if you were dealt 5 cards or 10. If you are
dealt 5, you have a one in 47 chance of hitting a royal by drawing

the

right card.

If you are dealt 10, there is still one chance in 47 that the card

you

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, dija800@w... wrote:

need is already underneath your discard.

-----------------------------------------------

Sorry for the confussion. I should have not used cards to a Royal as
the example (bad) since I already know the chances of hitting it is
exactly the same. The question I intended to ask is mainly related to
whether the unseen cards (the cards that will replace the cards that
you did not put on HOLD) are already there/made up prior to hitting
that DRAW button the 2nd time.

So, I see you got confused too.
You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you need is
already underneath your discard". If the card is already "underneath
your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit the
DRAW button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

#4

> You will have a different result, won't you? But mathematically it
> doesn't matter in the long run?>>>

Mathematically, it doesn't matter in the short run, either -- for any given hand, the chances are the same.

So, I see you got confused too.
You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you need is
already underneath your discard". If the card is already "underneath
your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit the
DRAW button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

The point that, I think, was attempting to be made is that the outcome is fixed when you hit "draw" on a 10-card-draw machine, but it somehow is undetermined if the machine draws 5 cards then re-draws the replacements.

But again, this is a distinction without a difference. If the degree of randomness is the same, and you can't determine from the outside of the VP machine (i.e., as a player pushing buttons and looking at the screen, not as someone with a logic probe on the motherboard and access to the memory registers of the computer inside the machine.... I think the casinos wouldn't take kindly to you hooking up a logic analyzer to IC's on the inside of the machine during play....) then the card(s) you get on the draw are the cards you're going to get on the draw -- period. The outcome, if you will, is the same.

Nothing the player does can change this, even a little. No matter when the card is determined, the only determination that matters is the one that is in place after you press "draw." Any other outcomes are just possibilities, not actualities. Pushing "draw" determines the outcome.

Debating whether the result will be "different" depending on when you push the button or when the machine determines the card is like debating the fate of Schrodinger's cat. If you want to debate whether the cat is dead or alive, I suggest you visit this site: http://www.phobe.com/s_cat/s_cat.html

#5

Your question has already been answered correctly
several times.

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 2 Jun 2005 at 16:45, gilbert_616 wrote:

You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you need is
already underneath your discard". If the card is already "underneath
your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit the DRAW
button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

#6

IMHO, I think that this answers the question as satisfactorily as it can be answered.
Thanks to everyone for their patience (and their contributions).

Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the covariance for VP games, we
can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL hint...hint....hint

In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can understand it too.

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Thomas <jfthomas3@c...> wrote:

> > You will have a different result, won't you? But mathematically it
> > doesn't matter in the long run?>>>

Mathematically, it doesn't matter in the short run, either -- for any
given hand, the chances are the same.

> So, I see you got confused too.
> You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
> certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you need is
> already underneath your discard". If the card is already "underneath
> your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit the
> DRAW button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

The point that, I think, was attempting to be made is that the
outcome is fixed when you hit "draw" on a 10-card-draw machine, but
it somehow is undetermined if the machine draws 5 cards then re-draws
the replacements.

But again, this is a distinction without a difference. If the degree
of randomness is the same, and you can't determine from the outside
of the VP machine (i.e., as a player pushing buttons and looking at
the screen, not as someone with a logic probe on the motherboard and
access to the memory registers of the computer inside the machine....
I think the casinos wouldn't take kindly to you hooking up a logic
analyzer to IC's on the inside of the machine during play....) then
the card(s) you get on the draw are the cards you're going to get on
the draw -- period. The outcome, if you will, is the same.

Nothing the player does can change this, even a little. No matter
when the card is determined, the only determination that matters is
the one that is in place after you press "draw." Any other
outcomes are just possibilities, not actualities. Pushing "draw"
determines the outcome.

Debating whether the result will be "different" depending on when you
push the button or when the machine determines the card is like
debating the fate of Schrodinger's cat. If you want to debate
whether the cat is dead or alive, I suggest you visit this site:
http://www.phobe.com/s_cat/s_cat.html

#7

> You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
> certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you

need is

> already underneath your discard". If the card is

already "underneath

> your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit

the DRAW

> button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

Your question has already been answered correctly
several times.

vpFREE Administrator

It would seem to me that if the "old style" machines were in use
that has the 6th thru 10th card THAT HAVE THE UNNDERNEATH the cards
from left to right that are to be discared, that it would not matter
if the button was hit a few seconds or a few hours later. That to
me is Gilbert's question.

Now before the flames start. Re-read my paragraph above. If this
is not the way the older machines worked, then disregard and
explain. However that is my understanding of how their operation
was explained on this forum.

DWK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

On 2 Jun 2005 at 16:45, gilbert_616 wrote:

#8

> You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
> certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you

need is

> already underneath your discard". If the card is

already "underneath

> your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit

the DRAW

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFREE" <vpFREE@C...> wrote:

On 2 Jun 2005 at 16:45, gilbert_616 wrote:
> button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

Your question has already been answered correctly
several times.

vpFREE Administrator

-------------------------

Yes sir, I know that and I should have just sent the above reply
privately to the new member who contributed his 2 cents on the topic
instead of sending it to everyone and made it look like I'm asking
the question again (for some clarification).

Next time, I should not rely on just using punctuation marks at the
end of the statements.

#9

I don't know how to compute covariance, but Jazbo's site lists a number of them including:
9/6 Jacks 1.966
All American 2.970
10/7 DB 3.391
FPDW 3.140
  
  I am pretty sure the Covariance for NSU will be VERY close to FPDW. When taken as a percentage of Variance (what Jazbo refers to as Covariance Coefficient), these represent from about 10% to about 12% of the underlying Variances.
  The bigger jackpot games (like FPDW and DB) appear to have the higher Covariance Coefficent.
  To get a quick rough idea, I often use a rule of thumb of about 10% of Variance for everything, so a 5-play game would have 1.4 times the variance of single play. If it was one of those higher jackpot games it would actually be a little higher about 1.5).
  The exact numbers don't really matter in this discussion - the priniciple is the same - a multiplay game with the same bet as a single play game will have a (much) lower variance.

  The 100-play nickel machine that Hockeystl caught a dealt royal on has about the same overall variance as a single play fifty-cent machine, even though his bet was the same as a five-dollar machine.

None of this is relevant to short-term bankroll considerations, BTW.
Skip

bornloser1537 wrote:

···

IMHO, I think that this answers the question as satisfactorily as it can be answered. Thanks to everyone for their patience (and their contributions).

Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the covariance for VP games, we can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL hint...hint....hint

In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can understand it too.

.....bl

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, John Thomas <jfthomas3@c...> wrote:

You will have a different result, won't you? But mathematically it
doesn't matter in the long run?>>>

Mathematically, it doesn't matter in the short run, either -- for any given hand, the chances are the same.

So, I see you got confused too.
You said "it seems very obvious that the outcome would be almost
certainly be different" and then later you said "the card you need is
already underneath your discard". If the card is already "underneath
your discard", how can the outcome be different whether you hit the
DRAW button in 3 seconds or 3 minutes?

The point that, I think, was attempting to be made is that the outcome is fixed when you hit "draw" on a 10-card-draw machine, but it somehow is undetermined if the machine draws 5 cards then re-draws the replacements.

But again, this is a distinction without a difference. If the degree of randomness is the same, and you can't determine from the outside of the VP machine (i.e., as a player pushing buttons and looking at the screen, not as someone with a logic probe on the motherboard and access to the memory registers of the computer inside the machine.... I think the casinos wouldn't take kindly to you hooking up a logic analyzer to IC's on the inside of the machine during play....) then the card(s) you get on the draw are the cards you're going to get on the draw -- period. The outcome, if you will, is the same.

Nothing the player does can change this, even a little. No matter when the card is determined, the only determination that matters is the one that is in place after you press "draw." Any other outcomes are just possibilities, not actualities. Pushing "draw" determines the outcome.

Debating whether the result will be "different" depending on when you push the button or when the machine determines the card is like debating the fate of Schrodinger's cat. If you want to debate whether the cat is dead or alive, I suggest you visit this site: http://www.phobe.com/s_cat/s_cat.html

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

--
Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#10

Skip Hughes wrote:

  I don't know how to compute covariance, but Jazbo's site...

Forgot to list the URL:
http://www.jazbo.com/

Thanks!
Skip
http://www.vpinsider.com

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...>
wrote:

Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the

covariance for VP games, we

can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL

hint...hint....hint

In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can

understand it too.

.....bl

Amen, heavy on the clear language for dummies.

#12

Do you know how to calculate variance?

wrote:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@y...>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537" <bornloser1537@y...>
wrote:

> Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the
covariance for VP games, we
> can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL
hint...hint....hint
>
> In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can
understand it too.
>
> .....bl

Amen, heavy on the clear language for dummies.

#13

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

Do you know how to calculate variance?

wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537"

<bornloser1537@y...>

> wrote:
>
> > Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the
> covariance for VP games, we
> > can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL
> hint...hint....hint
> >
> > In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can
> understand it too.
> >
> > .....bl
>
>
> Amen, heavy on the clear language for dummies.

Yes

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@y...>

#14

Draw poker can be split into two parts, the deal and then the draw.
So, calculate the variance of the deal, call it the dealt variance,
and then calculate the variance of the draw and call it drawn
variance. The drawn variance is hardest to calculate because there are
lots of possibilites, however, you already know the total variance of
the single line game. Total variance = dealt variance + drawn
variance, or in the
case of multiple draws based on the same dealt hand, dealt variance
plus (drawn variance/N). If you know Total variance for a single line
game, and you solve for dealt variance, then you know
drawn variance. Once you know drawn variance, you can then calculate
the total variance of a multiplay game.
Steps:
1. Calculate total Variance of single line game
2. Calculate dealt Variance of single line game
3. drawn Variance = total Variance - dealt Variance
4. multiplay Variance = dealt Variance + (drawn Variance/N) where
N=number of drawn hands per dealt hand
Example:
1. fpdw total variance = 26
2. fpdw dealt variance = 3
3. fpdw drawn variance therefore = 26 -3 = 23
4. fpdw multiplay variance therefore = 3 + 23/N

wrote:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@y...>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:
> Do you know how to calculate variance?
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000"
<deuceswild1000@y...>
> wrote:
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "bornloser1537"
<bornloser1537@y...>
> > wrote:
> >
> > > Now, if we can just get the answer to how one computes the
> > covariance for VP games, we
> > > can get this multiple-line variance thing settled. LOL
> > hint...hint....hint
> > >
> > > In as clear a language as possible, so that we dummies can
> > understand it too.
> > >
> > > .....bl
> >
> >
> > Amen, heavy on the clear language for dummies.

Yes

#15

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

Draw poker can be split into two parts, the deal and then the draw.
So, calculate the variance of the deal, call it the dealt variance,
and then calculate the variance of the draw and call it drawn
variance. The drawn variance is hardest to calculate because there

are

lots of possibilites, however, you already know the total variance

of

the single line game. Total variance = dealt variance + drawn
variance, or in the
case of multiple draws based on the same dealt hand, dealt variance
plus (drawn variance/N). If you know Total variance for a single

line

game, and you solve for dealt variance,

Is calc dealt variance easier said than done?

then you know

drawn variance. Once you know drawn variance, you can then

calculate

the total variance of a multiplay game.
Steps:

1. Calculate total Variance of single line game

Ok, just to make sure we are communicating what is the formula. I
use Sum probability of hand *(payback of hand- expected value)^2 If
this is correct then your Google reference does answer this,but does
not address co-variance, dealt variance, and draw variance. In fact
most on line articles that I read don't even deal with video poker.
That is why I am looking for references.

2. Calculate dealt Variance of single line game

Ok, that is one of my question for which I asked for help and
hopefuly a reference.

3. drawn Variance = total Variance - dealt Variance

Ok, but most research I have done uses variance and co-variance but
maybe this is where I need help. I definitely need help learning to
calc co-variance

4. multiplay Variance = dealt Variance + (drawn Variance/N) where
N=number of drawn hands per dealt hand

Ok this is a BIGGY. I do NOT find that formula in any reference
that I have found on line. Either that or you have transposed it to
a form that I do not recognize. Reiterating, I am of the
impression that we can use variance and co-variance also. So if
possible would prefer to work with that.

Then finally how does one turn this number into the answer to the
question that I asked for 4900 pushes of the deal button at five
lines per push at 5 credits per line at 5c per credit = $1.25 so
that I would have the same amount of money at risk as if I were
playing 4900 games of single line 25c at full coin of 5. You said
that I had done the calc correctly for single line. Now if I can
get this answer, I can make a direct comparison of these sets of
conditions.

I figured if some one could tell me how to calc covariance, how to
use it to figure Total std dev (BY THIS I MEAN MULTIPLE LINES AT
MULTIPLE PUSHES OF THE DEAL BUTTON-----no I am not shouting, but
underling or italics are not possible on this forum). Then I could
taylor that info to other games and combinations and denominations.

Example:
1. fpdw total variance = 26
2. fpdw dealt variance = 3
3. fpdw drawn variance therefore = 26 -3 = 23
4. fpdw multiplay variance therefore = 3 + 23/N

Most of the references that I understood gave co-variance adnd total
variance per hand, at least that is my understanding. That is why I
concentrated on co-variance and total var. per hand rather than
dealt var. In WoO he uses n and n that appear to me to be two
different numbers and then references single variance and co-
varaince. I tried to follow his examples but got lost. So I asked
for help using variance and covariance. If it can only be explained
using dealt variance then lets start there.

Lastly vpFREE adm. I will take this off forum if you would like.
However there are three reasons for leaving it on forum.

1)It seems to pertain to vp more than rental codes, quality of
steaks, and some of the other off topic posts.

2)The results are scrutinized by others who may have a different
take on the subject (and I hope they will chime in if they do).

3)Or maybe more importantly, may have a different way of explaining
the
subject that finally lights up the scene. I am sure all have
experienced that where hearing it a differnt way suddenly breaks
through.

Skip your reply is appreciated, but am still trying to make the
calculations.

Your call Tom.

DWK

#16

wrote:

Is calc dealt variance easier said than done?

Hmm, well you have to know the possible hands, their probabilities and
their average returns. 5 card stud tables are a start, for example:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/pokerodd.html
http://www.math.sfu.ca/~alspach/computations.html

> 1. Calculate total Variance of single line game
Ok, just to make sure we are communicating what is the formula. I
use Sum probability of hand *(payback of hand- expected value)^2

If

this is correct then your Google reference does answer this,but

does

not address co-variance, dealt variance, and draw variance. In

fact

most on line articles that I read don't even deal with video poker.
That is why I am looking for references.

Your formula for variance is correct. You should also find info on
covariance, which in the case of multiplays is the same as dealt
variance. There are some sites on Poker math, for example Alspach's
cited above.

> 2. Calculate dealt Variance of single line game
Ok, that is one of my question for which I asked for help and
hopefuly a reference.

see above

> 3. drawn Variance = total Variance - dealt Variance
Ok, but most research I have done uses variance and co-variance but
maybe this is where I need help. I definitely need help learning

to

calc co-variance

for multiplays, covariance=dealt variance

> 4. multiplay Variance = dealt Variance + (drawn Variance/N) where
> N=number of drawn hands per dealt hand
Ok this is a BIGGY. I do NOT find that formula in any reference
that I have found on line. Either that or you have transposed it

to

a form that I do not recognize. Reiterating, I am of the
impression that we can use variance and co-variance also. So if
possible would prefer to work with that.

N-play var = covar + ((1-play var - covar)/N)

Why is this formula correct? Off the top of my head I'm not sure I can
come up with a straightforward answer.
I'll give it a shot, but it's probably confusing:
It's similar to playing multihands in Blackjack. The dollar variance
is the dollar variance of the first hand plus the dollar covariance of
each additional hand (because of the definition of covariance), so,
here goes the algebra:
net var = var + (N-1)x covar
but we need to normalize at variance per bet so we can compare apples
to oranges, assuming the same base bet, for multiplays the total bet
is N times larger, so, divide by N:
N-play var = (1-play var)/N + covar x (N-1)/N
= ((1-play var) + covar x N - covar))/N
= covar + ((1-play var) - covar)/N

Then finally how does one turn this number into the answer to the
question that I asked for 4900 pushes of the deal button at five
lines per push at 5 credits per line at 5c per credit = $1.25 so
that I would have the same amount of money at risk as if I were
playing 4900 games of single line 25c at full coin of 5. You said
that I had done the calc correctly for single line. Now if I can
get this answer, I can make a direct comparison of these sets of
conditions.

std. dev. = sqrt( plays x variance ) bets
fpdw variance = 3 + 23/N
dollar std. dev. = std. dev. x (bet per play)
fpdw 25c single play at 4900 plays, $sd=sqrt(4900 x 26) x $1.25
fpdw 5c 5-play at 4900 plays, $sd=sqrt(4900 x 7.6) x $1.25

I figured if some one could tell me how to calc covariance, how to
use it to figure Total std dev (BY THIS I MEAN MULTIPLE LINES AT
MULTIPLE PUSHES OF THE DEAL BUTTON-----no I am not shouting, but
underling or italics are not possible on this forum). Then I could
taylor that info to other games and combinations and denominations.

Sure, why not?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deuceswild1000" <deuceswild1000@y...>