vpFREE2 Forums

RNG Operation and Bankroll

#1

Can someone can give me an appropriate answer to this question?
  Two people were heading to the same machine that was located next
to me. A decision was made as to who should play the machine (Deuces
Wild - NSUD version). Immediately, the first hand dealt was 3 deuces
with the 4th deuce coming on the draw for $1,000. You can imagine
the problem the other customer had with what had just happened. The
person was more depressed than upset. I believe, and tried to
explain, that he would not have received the same good fortune if he
was the person who got to sit at the machine.
  Am I correct in assuming that thousands of possible hands are being
generated at all times and thousands of draws are also being
generated after a hold and that it is almost impossible for the
timing of the deal or the draw ever being the same for both
individuals in this case?
  Would not have many new RNG draws have been generated each second,
or is the next deal sitting there ready for the next push of the deal
button? And also, even if the first deal is 3 deuces, either because
the deal is sitting there waiting for a push of the button, or
because of the luck of the RGN stopping on another 3 deuces, the
timing of the draw would not have been the same for the other
individual in the likely different amount of seconds for that person
to have hit the draw button.
  I tried to best explain this was not a case of one person winning
with this specific hand and that it probably would have gone to the
other person if they had sat down. I do not think I was successful
in consoling the other person and I hope my explanation was not too
inaccurate! Any comments would enlighten me and I guess a concise
and accurae answer would be valuable to know for any future situation
and or discussion with others on this topic.

  A second and related question --- Are not these RGN making
everything always random and thus each hand, and for that matter each
session, part of one big random VP session without any connection to
any specific timing? If this is true, is not bankroll basically
insignificant? I know you need to have the dollars to make the next
play or you go home. However, do you not have one lifetime bankroll
and all VP play in life just one big random session. The VP game,
the pay schedule and playing strategy, etc. are important other
issues. But if you play the same game with the same play strategy in
over your lifetime, then it doesn't matter when the next hand is
played, but whether or not it is played, as far as bankroll is
concerned. Is this over simplification or just not true?

Thanks, I am always trying to learn and appreciate even some off
topic information. I just scroll through and stop where I know some
posters are usually making valuable contributions, or another person
is asking a question of interest.

Bob

#2

  Can someone can give me an appropriate answer to this question?
   A second and related question --- Are not these RGN making
everything always random and thus each hand, and for that matter

each

session, part of one big random VP session without any connection

to

any specific timing?

Yes absolutly ,but not everybody agrees, Singer comes to mind.

If this is true, is not bankroll basically

insignificant? I know you need to have the dollars to make the

next

play or you go home. However, do you not have one lifetime

bankroll

and all VP play in life just one big random session. The VP game,
the pay schedule and playing strategy, etc. are important other
issues. But if you play the same game with the same play strategy

in

over your lifetime, then it doesn't matter when the next hand is
played, but whether or not it is played, as far as bankroll is
concerned. Is this over simplification or just not true?

Interesting concept, I would agree.
Short term=next spin
long term=till death do we part
M J

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:

#3

Bob,

As to the non-bankroll part you have the operation of the RNG right.
The RNG is constantly cycling. At the instant you hit the deal button
5 cards are selected. When you hit the draw button replacement cards
are selected. For information please see my article in the Sept 2005
Strictly Slots. Even though I didn't have space to specifically
address VP the principles are the same.

Manufacturers other than IGT might (but probably don't) pick 10 cards
to start. Except for the VLT's in Oregon that might be required to
deal 10 cards (I haven't pinned this down).

Always remember, the only thing that matters mathematically is that
the machines are effectively random. Psychologically, you might like
to know that if you had waited an instant your results would have
been different.

Regards,

Bill

···

At 08:37 AM 9/30/2005, you wrote:

  Can someone can give me an appropriate answer to this question?
  Two people were heading to the same machine that was located next
to me. A decision was made as to who should play the machine (Deuces
Wild - NSUD version). Immediately, the first hand dealt was 3 deuces
with the 4th deuce coming on the draw for $1,000. You can imagine
the problem the other customer had with what had just happened. The
person was more depressed than upset. I believe, and tried to
explain, that he would not have received the same good fortune if he
was the person who got to sit at the machine.
  Am I correct in assuming that thousands of possible hands are being
generated at all times and thousands of draws are also being
generated after a hold and that it is almost impossible for the
timing of the deal or the draw ever being the same for both
individuals in this case?
  Would not have many new RNG draws have been generated each second,
or is the next deal sitting there ready for the next push of the deal
button? And also, even if the first deal is 3 deuces, either because
the deal is sitting there waiting for a push of the button, or
because of the luck of the RGN stopping on another 3 deuces, the
timing of the draw would not have been the same for the other
individual in the likely different amount of seconds for that person
to have hit the draw button.
  I tried to best explain this was not a case of one person winning
with this specific hand and that it probably would have gone to the
other person if they had sat down. I do not think I was successful
in consoling the other person and I hope my explanation was not too
inaccurate! Any comments would enlighten me and I guess a concise
and accurae answer would be valuable to know for any future situation
and or discussion with others on this topic.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

I go to Windsor Casino a couple of times a month. Yes, I play those short pay machines but it may all be coming to an end as they are replacing the almost good machines with various "new" machines that never seem to hit 4 of a kind. They have replaced at least 200 VP machines with nickel slots and another 50-60 or more fairly good machines with these ones that never hit or with really bizarre games of VP.
I am wondering if there is any Canadian gaming laws that they have to abide by. When they purchase new machines (or put new guts/fronts) on the machines they already have, can they buy a lower payout percentage machine or is there some standard?
Just wondering?
thanks
mj

#5

<<But if you play the same game with the same play strategy in over your
lifetime, then it doesn't matter when the next hand is played, but whether
or not it is played, as far as bankroll is concerned. Is this over
simplification or just not true?>>

When people speak of the bankroll requirement to play a game, they generally
are speaking as if you had a fixed amount of money and you were doing
nothing with it other than playing that game. A bankroll requirement is
always a function of the risk of ruin you are willing to accept. It is a
mathematical computation based on your advantage and the variance of the
game.

If you have an income and are not exclusively gambling to make a living, and
you plan to play hundreds of thousands of hands of video poker, you are
probably more concerned with a number some call "drain" -- the expected loss
when the rare jackpots are not hit. In FPDW, the drain without hitting
Deuces or a Royal is about 5%, so for budgeting purposes you should assume
you could lose 5% of your coin in until you are lucky enough to hit those
rare events.

There is also the concept of a "trip bankroll." This is the amount you need
to bring to the casino with you to ensure you won't run out due to an
unlucky streak. This is also related to drain, but you need to start looking
at some of the more frequent payouts as well. It's not uncommon to lose 20%
of coin in during an unlucky day.

Cogno

#6

I checked around the Ontario Lottery and Gaming Corporation web site. This is the government agency that the Casinos report to. I couldn't find any information
there, but I can't see why they couldn't use whatever payoffs the manufacturer provides.

Regards
A.P.

···

----- Original Message -----
  From: Mary Jean
  To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
  Sent: Friday, September 30, 2005 2:44 PM
  Subject: [vpFREE] Canadian Gaming Laws

  I go to Windsor Casino a couple of times a month. Yes, I play those short
  pay machines but it may all be coming to an end as they are replacing the
  almost good machines with various "new" machines that never seem to hit 4 of
  a kind. They have replaced at least 200 VP machines with nickel slots and
  another 50-60 or more fairly good machines with these ones that never hit or
  with really bizarre games of VP.
  I am wondering if there is any Canadian gaming laws that they have to abide
  by. When they purchase new machines (or put new guts/fronts) on the machines
  they already have, can they buy a lower payout percentage machine or is
  there some standard?
  Just wondering?
  thanks
  mj

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#7

Well, you've brought up some VERY interesting but somewhat subtle subjects.

  A second and related question --- Are not these RGN making
everything always random and thus each hand, and for that matter each
session, part of one big random VP session without any connection to
any specific timing?

Timing aside for a moment, you are not far-off in your understanding here. Before you
start to play, you can (mathematically) lump all the VP you might play over your entire life
from that moment on into one big long term session. Actually, you can ALWAYS lump all
possible FUTURE plays into on big future session. That said, as soon as you do play a
hand and therefore get an actual return, the statistics of your overall (cummulative) return
(which includes BOTH all future play and the played hand) must be adjusted for the actual
return that you received. That is, after playing that first hand, you must adjust your
bankroll to account for the actual outcome of the hand. The same needs to be done after
the second hand, third hand, or n-th hand. So If you play a session and lose $3000, you
have ACTUALLY lost $3000... no screwing around with long-term play statistics can make
your expected total (cumulative) EV positive (for any VP game I know). Why? If each hand
is truly independent (I have no reason to suspect otherwise), once it is played it can not
effect the long-term outcome of a series of future hands (which must approach, on
average the theoretically EV). So, while there is a finite probability of overcoming any
actual loss, if you play forever (after such a loss), your expected TOTAL long-term return
will always be affected by that loss. Sorry, but that's how it goes. Many otherwise very
smart people believe in "regression to the mean" for VP. But once you deviate from the
mean in VP, there is no restoring force. If you lose $3000, no amount of future play WILL
guarantee that you will end up in the long run achieving the EV of the game. Well, in
truth, you certainly have a chance (finite,>0 probability) of coming out ahead and making
up for that $3000 loss. But that is not regression to the mean. Really. Summary: if you do
plan to lump all hands into "one big random VP session" take some care to understand
the (statistical and philosophicall) differences between already played and to-be-played
hands. Yup, if you lose a lot early, on average, you never come back. Good thing none of
us are all that likely to acheive the the long run average [in fact, the longer we play, the
less likely this is, since the variance increases (at least) linearly with the number of hands
played (for any non-anomilous random walk process)]

If this is true, is not bankroll basically
insignificant?

No. Bankroll (or stake, etc) is very significant. Ignore it at your peril

I know you need to have the dollars to make the next
play or you go home. However, do you not have one lifetime bankroll
and all VP play in life just one big random session.

I already addressed this some above. While you might have a theoretical lifetime bankroll,
as soon as you start to actually play, that bankroll changes. Really.

The VP game, the pay schedule and playing strategy, etc. are important other issues.

Yes.

But if you play the same game with the same play strategy in
over your lifetime, then it doesn't matter when the next hand is
played, but whether or not it is played, as far as bankroll is
concerned.

Yes, Yes, Yes! But let me put it a different way. The only "timing" issue that is relevant is
whether a hand has already been played or it is a to-be-played hand (future) hand.
Assuming that we are incapable of accurate enough button pushing to cause non-random
(and then even on-independent) plays, "timing" should have no other relevance (so long
as the game itself doesn't change).

Is this over simplification or just not true?

Neither. Instead it is, IMHO, amazing insight! You have been talking about some
advanced ideas (bravo!) , including, Stationarity/ergodicity (that the machine doesn't
change, that all future plays on any machine when assembled together in any order should
give results as if they were "drawn" from a single distribution) and conditional probabilities
(that there is a difference between a hand that has been played and one that hasn't yet and
that one could ask the "reverse" questions, namely, what is the probability that I had lost X
after playing n hands, given I had won Y after M>N hands ?, etc)

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "futrend" <futrend@y...> wrote:

#8

Hi there

Last time I was in Canada, Niagra falls, there was almost 100%
Pick'em. I would guess they use a fair deck. Don't know though. The
thing I liked when up there was no W2Gs issued for any wins. The gal
that paid me 4 $1000 bills for a $1 jackpot said Canada believes one
pays taxes on their money before they brought it to the casino. Makes
a lot of sense to me.

Cheers....Jeep
.

I go to Windsor Casino a couple of times a month. Yes, I play those

short

pay machines but it may all be coming to an end as they are

replacing the

almost good machines with various "new" machines that never seem to

hit 4 of

a kind. They have replaced at least 200 VP machines with nickel

slots and

another 50-60 or more fairly good machines with these ones that

never hit or

with really bizarre games of VP.
I am wondering if there is any Canadian gaming laws that they have

to abide

by. When they purchase new machines (or put new guts/fronts) on the

machines

they already have, can they buy a lower payout percentage machine

or is

···

.--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mary Jean" <mjfish@b...> wrote:

there some standard?
Just wondering?
thanks
mj

#9

Do I correctly understand this to say that none of us will ever play enough for the negative impact of one losing session to devastatingly affect our potential outcome?

MAJOR SNIP

. Good thing none of

···

----- Original Message ----- From: "cdfsrule" <groups.yahoo@verizon.net>

us are all that likely to acheive the the long run average [in fact, the longer we play, the
less likely this is, since the variance increases (at least) linearly with the number of hands
played (for any non-anomilous random walk process)]