vpFREE2 Forums

Risk of Ruin question

#1

During my 9 month hospital stay the last year all my funds, not just
VP bankroll. were depleted. I had nothing left by April of this year
when I was finally released from hospital. I am disabled and receive
a SSDI check each month of which i do designate $1000.00 each month
to my VP bankroll. My bankroll on May 15 was $2500. So lets make May
15 my starting date for my vp bankroll. From May 15 to August 15 i
added a $1000 each first of the month. That means 2500+June 1st 1000
+ July1st 1000 + August 1st 1000 for a total of $5500. Today I have
less than $300 bankroll. I consistently have lost funds by July 1st,
I had only my $1000 designated money. By August 1st, I once again had
only my $1000 designated deposit.

The RoR for .25 FPDW on $5500 is somewhere around 2.5%, but I never
at any time had $5500.

****However, is there any difference on RoR on the $5500 in a 3 month
period or $5500 cash on hand? I know that if I had a #1000 to start
that the RoR is slightly greater than 50%, but doesnt long term
bankroll equal the same return? What am I missing?

I do not believe my play is suspect because at home I play 900 hands
per hour at a 100.46% return opposed to 100.76% with perfect play,
I feel that I play higher than the 100.46% in the casino because the
machines play slower and I believe I make fewer mistakes.

Anyway, as always thanks for your help in advance.
TD

#2

"Body of message snipped"

I've had no Royals and behind several 4-deuces.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

During my 9 month hospital stay the last year all my funds, not just

#3

During my 9 month hospital stay the last year all my funds, not

just

VP bankroll. were depleted. I had nothing left by April of this

year

when I was finally released from hospital. I am disabled and

receive

a SSDI check each month of which i do designate $1000.00 each

month

to my VP bankroll. My bankroll on May 15 was $2500. So lets make

May

15 my starting date for my vp bankroll. From May 15 to August 15 i
added a $1000 each first of the month. That means 2500+June 1st

1000

+ July1st 1000 + August 1st 1000 for a total of $5500. Today I

have

less than $300 bankroll. I consistently have lost funds by July

1st,

I had only my $1000 designated money. By August 1st, I once again

had

only my $1000 designated deposit.

The RoR for .25 FPDW on $5500 is somewhere around 2.5%, but I

never

at any time had $5500.

The longterm RoR for 5-coin .25 FPDW with a $5500 bankroll is 5.6%.
You still had "less than $300" left. The RoR for a $5200 bankroll
is 6.6%, or about 1 in 15. That assumes no mistakes and no tips.

However, the chance of losing $5200 in the timeframe you described
would be less. For example, if you played 400 hours at 700
hands/hr, the chance of losing $5200 would be around 1.5%.

****However, is there any difference on RoR on the $5500 in a 3

month

period or $5500 cash on hand? I know that if I had a #1000 to

start

that the RoR is slightly greater than 50%, but doesnt long term
bankroll equal the same return? What am I missing?

It's pretty much the same, whether you start with $5500 or get to
$5500 along the way. A bigger issue is how to analyze the "1.5%"
RoR. When you don't pre-define an endpoint, then the analysis
becomes suspect.

If you had said back on May 15, "okay, I am going to play 280,000
hands of FPDW and see where I am at the end of play" then your
results would be an eyebrow raising 1.5% event. That's different
then playing until you have a really bad result and saying 'let's
see how bad it was'.

I realize you've been losing steadily, and that your results are no
doubt pretty unlucky. I'm just pointing out that it may not be
quite as unlucky as the stats would suggest.

--Dunbar

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

#4

Note that RoR figures assume perfect play. Therefore RoR increases as
more mistakes are made.

.SK56.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

I do not believe my play is suspect because at home I play 900 hands
per hour at a 100.46% return opposed to 100.76% with perfect play,

#5

<<>

I do not believe my play is suspect because at home I play 900 hands
per hour at a 100.46% return opposed to 100.76% with perfect play,>>

Do you have any extra benefits when you play - cashback, free play, bounce back, casino promos, etc.? Since we play negative VP, ALL our profit (and making up the VP losses) is due to these "extras." VP is too volatile, in my opinion, to depend on it 100% for profit.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://lasvegasadvisor.com/blogs/jscott/

#6

>
> I do not believe my play is suspect because at home I play 900

hands

> per hour at a 100.46% return opposed to 100.76% with perfect play,

Note that RoR figures assume perfect play. Therefore RoR increases as
more mistakes are made.

.SK56.

Right. And I should have included the error rate in my RoR comments.

If the poster is giving up 0.3% of the return, then the longterm RoR
of a $5200 bankroll jumps from 6.6% to 21%. If someone plays 400 hrs
of .25 FPDW at 700 hands/hr (as in my earlier example) giving up 0.3%
in errors, then the RoR for a $5200 bankroll jumps from around 1.5% to
around 3.5%.*

Good job of the original poster in testing his/her play and
recognizing that he/she is not playing perfectly. More people should
be thoroughly checking their play.

--Dunbar

*All calcs done with Dunbar's Risk Analyzer for Video Poker, v1.5

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "spamkiller56" <spamkiller56@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@> wrote:

#7

I guess we can assume you are playing in Nevada or some other
regular jurisdiction. I have heard results in Joe Truckers truck
stop off the interstate in nowheresville has less than expected
results.

Cheers...Jeep
.
.

During my 9 month hospital stay the last year all my funds, not

just

VP bankroll. were depleted. I had nothing left by April of this

year

when I was finally released from hospital. I am disabled and

receive

a SSDI check each month of which i do designate $1000.00 each

month

to my VP bankroll. My bankroll on May 15 was $2500. So lets make

May

15 my starting date for my vp bankroll. From May 15 to August 15 i
added a $1000 each first of the month. That means 2500+June 1st

1000

+ July1st 1000 + August 1st 1000 for a total of $5500. Today I

have

less than $300 bankroll. I consistently have lost funds by July

1st,

I had only my $1000 designated money. By August 1st, I once again

had

only my $1000 designated deposit.

The RoR for .25 FPDW on $5500 is somewhere around 2.5%, but I

never

at any time had $5500.

****However, is there any difference on RoR on the $5500 in a 3

month

period or $5500 cash on hand? I know that if I had a #1000 to

start

that the RoR is slightly greater than 50%, but doesnt long term
bankroll equal the same return? What am I missing?

I do not believe my play is suspect because at home I play 900

hands

per hour at a 100.46% return opposed to 100.76% with perfect play,
I feel that I play higher than the 100.46% in the casino because

the

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "TD" <tdavenport51@...> wrote:

machines play slower and I believe I make fewer mistakes.

Anyway, as always thanks for your help in advance.
TD