Reply To Paladin regarding "Four of a KInd Frenzy"

[vpFREE3]

Repeating a post from yesterday. I frankly expected either
Paladin or the Administrator to respond. Just in case it got
lost among all the Countdown posts, I post again.

<SNIP>

Finally, I find the following interesting:

SUNSHINE POLICY: ALL of the better video poker games that are
known to the Administrator will be shared by him with the
vpFREE membership.

I saw that you find the Sunshine Policy interesting ... Didn't know
you were looking for a response from me.

The Sunshine Policy and outing good plays have gotten a lot of ink
on vpFREE. Here's a couple of relevant Administrator posts from
the archives:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/39748

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/53051

vpFREE Administrator

···

On 23 Aug 2006 Adams Myth wrote:

[Adams_Myth]

Thanks for the links to the two past columns on the topic. I just read
both of them.

In the latter, you said - "However, you can never know for sure that
disclosure wouldn't have been a better option than secrecy in
preserving or prolonging a play."

The prevailing notion here is that when these machines are disclosed,
the riff-raff would come and play the machines, robbing the Dancers,
the Scotts, and the Paladins of their legitimate due! I think that is
far from the case. The riff-raff would not play with the intensity and
devotion of the royalty. They would not milk the machines dry as the
nobility would. In fact, with their not-so-perfect play, they may
reduce the drain on tha casino, and help to keep the machines in play
longer.

Sunshine and disclosure are always better. The casino people know what
they are doing; I guess we can assume that. I wouldn't presume to
divine their motivation in setting up some better paying machines for a
limited amount of time. A general disclosure on a forum like this would
benefit everyone who can go there.

I referred to the Sunshine Policy as interesting, implying that it
ought to be embraced by the members too.

If the casino withdraws them after a while, it is not because the
machines have been outed, but their function has been served; they may
have fulfilled their "loss-leader" assignment.

Finally, the people who were up in arms against taking advantage of a
malfunctioning machine in a casino, ("What would you have done" in
early August) are deafeningly silent about taking advantage of the
fellow player.

I saw that you find the Sunshine Policy interesting ... Didn't know

you were looking for a response from me.

The Sunshine Policy and outing good plays have gotten a lot of ink

on vpFREE. Here's a couple of relevant Administrator posts from the
archives:

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vp_free@...> wrote:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/39748
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/53051

[murphyfields]

Interesting thoughts. I think there are a number of issues here with
subtle and not-so-subtle moral implications. In the following
discussion, I am not suggesting that one approach is better than
another for financial or ethical reasons. Just putting out some
thoughts and general rambling.

What should be done about an obvious pay-table mistake where, with
perfect play, the EV is substantially over 100%, say 110%+. The first
reaction is to keep it to yourself and milk it for all that it is
worth. Or you could tell the casino about the mistake (morally
right?) Or you could post it here and be pretty certain that you will
never have the opportunity to play that machine again due to
competition. This would not be in your best interest, or the board in
general. Just in the best interest of the individuals who can take
advantage of it.

In the case of an overly hot progressive, you run the risk of a team
taking over the entire bank of machines.

For "good" machines, you still run the risk of added competition
(nothing worse than travelling an hour only to find the one decent
machine is in use). Why make things worse? If nobody knows about the
machines, the only people playing them will probably be losing money
in them, and they will stay around longer. As more knowledgeable
players find them, I would expect casino profits on these machines to
drop, increasing the chances of having them disappear or having comps
reduced on them.

But then again, I would never have found some of the decent machines
if not for the vpFREE database and other knowledgeable players, and
from what I have seen, there is no shortage of bad players out there.
But obviously something must be going on because CB and other comps
keep dropping.

I am afraid that, eventually, the good opportunities will dry up, and
it will be due, partly, to too much information being available to the
masses (VP books, strategy cards, etc.)

I really can't say where the proper balance is, but I sure wish I had
been in on it from the beginning.

- John

"Adams Myth" wrote:

···

The prevailing notion here is that when these machines are disclosed,
the riff-raff would come and play the machines, robbing the Dancers,
the Scotts, and the Paladins of their legitimate due! I think that is
far from the case. The riff-raff would not play with the intensity and
devotion of the royalty. They would not milk the machines dry as the
nobility would. In fact, with their not-so-perfect play, they may
reduce the drain on tha casino, and help to keep the machines in play
longer.

Sunshine and disclosure are always better. The casino people know what
they are doing; I guess we can assume that. I wouldn't presume to
divine their motivation in setting up some better paying machines for a
limited amount of time. A general disclosure on a forum like this would
benefit everyone who can go there.

I referred to the Sunshine Policy as interesting, implying that it
ought to be embraced by the members too.

If the casino withdraws them after a while, it is not because the
machines have been outed, but their function has been served; they may
have fulfilled their "loss-leader" assignment.

Finally, the people who were up in arms against taking advantage of a
malfunctioning machine in a casino, ("What would you have done" in
early August) are deafeningly silent about taking advantage of the
fellow player.

[dddddmike]

Well.

To respond to the last part, this is a highly "sensitive" subject which
few are courageous or foolhardy enough to engage in.

I'll try to put this as PC as possible. From what I've read here, it
comes to two fundamental questions:

1. How much clearance does the non-pro world owe to the local pros?

2. How much "work" should one be MADE to do in order to join the club?

Referring to #2, this goes to some of the criticims of Bob Dancer/Jean
Scott, et al, that they are wrecking all the good opportunities by
educating too many people. Many people here had to learn the hard way.
Already since you've been here, how many posts have you seen like
this: "I'm a newbie. Tell me everything I need to know to be an AP,
where are the $5 FPDW, how do I play it, and please sift through all
the material in the world and tell me what to buy and where to start."

First you see a lot of silence. Then you see some responses like "the
books and tables are over there, go figure it out yourself." Then
finally some really nice person will give them a 5 page treatise on the
subject, how to get started, and what to look for. Newbie usually says
thanks and goes on his way, never to be heard from again, and not
voting for the Hall of Fame. Another mouth to feed. Another light
turned on, where too much light results in power overload and darkness
for all. At least that's the view of some. They figure these folks
didn't pay their dues but they're feeding at my trough.

Outing the plays is an extension of this. I'm pretty sure they don't
fear a rec player. I for one already have job that pays more than
Silverton and it comes with health care and a 401(k). I don't have the
ability or the time to just chuck my job at a moment's notice to run
out to Silverton and stand in line for 3 hours with my bucket of
quarters.

But as you can see, the pro/high-functioning local "network" is not
quite all-inclusive. And the play you find is the play YOU find, often
with your own work, beating the streets and highways on your own. And
some are unhappy that it gets blabbed all over the place. There's
no "romance" in the game anymore, and you can't get REALLY ahead
because the play goes away too fast.

Is that "fair?" I don't know.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Adams Myth" <Adams_Myth@...> wrote:

The prevailing notion here is that when these machines are disclosed,
the riff-raff would come and play the machines, robbing the Dancers,
the Scotts, and the Paladins of their legitimate due! I think that is
far from the case.

Finally, the people who were up in arms against taking advantage of a
malfunctioning machine in a casino, ("What would you have done" in
early August) are deafeningly silent about taking advantage of the
fellow player.

[Adams_Myth]

quite all-inclusive. And the play you find is the play YOU find,
often with your own work, beating the streets and highways on your
own. And some are unhappy that it gets blabbed all over the place.

I think there are two kinds of "good plays" here. One is what the
Casino puts out there, deliberately, as a gimmick, without
publicizing it (do they do this sort of a thing? I don't know, I am a
newbie to this board as well as to VP itself, relatively speaking).
The other is a mistake on their part, such as not resetting the
Jackpot, or making the Royal Flush 8000 coins instead of 4000.

The former kind; the casino people know about it. Which enables them
to pimp them (like prostitutes under their care) for customers who
can grease their palms. You would think this is akin to insider
trading for which millionaires can go to jail; which is a good thing.
But casinos, despite claims to the contrary, are not like regular
businesses. If Sears is selling luggage at a loss, and if you go and
buy several, perhaps on several trips, can they read you the trespass
act and banish from the store? Apparently a casino can, if you play
on one of their better paying machines and make a fortune. If you
have a fantastic memory and remember all the cards dealt in the last
sevral rounds, apparently they can bar you from playing Black Jack.
(Which always makes me wonder; how come they haven't banished the
likes of a Bob Dancer? That's an academic question; I have an
admiration for his skill and an appreciation for his columns)

But I digress.

Perhaps the Royal Flesh here can have their own vp-not-FREE
(admission by a secret handshake) and trade information, and not
condescend to read all the finer points of fractional point carryover
from machine to machine!

Back to the good plays. The second kind is a result of a mistake by
the casino. Here, the opinion seems to be that select few that
are "in" on it should be allowed to profit as long as they could,
because divulging it would result in the casino correcting their
mistake. But this was the point behind all the PC posts on the topic
of "What Would You Have Done". If it is wrong take the $10 in coin
registered when you put in a $5 bill, it should be wrong to take
advantage of a mistake in the paytable which would give you a 102%
(or more) EV. Perhaps some people here would charter a jet to play
that machine. If a DW machine is registering 4 for FH instead of 3,
that would give a $5 player more than 4 times the return, a little
less than 10K per hour!

I said/posted too much already. Let me quit here.

One more thing. Information is becoming more and more available.
There is no use bemoaning this situation. However, not all people who
have access to books and software and information can and do play as
well as the strategy cards dictate, even if they have them taped on
to the machine they are playing. As Bob Dancer said last week,
playing to an optimum strategy, consulting a strategy card (he was
referring to Joker Poker) slows you down to the extent the resultant
gain in EV per hand is not worth the loss in the hourly return! There
is the dilemma! Thus these super players always have an advantage
that mere mortals do not possess. They need not worry. They are above
the Platinum and Diamond levels; perhaps Palladium!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dddddmike" <ddddmike@...> wrote:

But as you can see, the pro/high-functioning local "network" is not

[Harry_Porter]

Adams Myth wrote:

The former kind; the casino people know about it. Which enables them
to pimp them (like prostitutes under their care) for customers who
can grease their palms.

Where the heck, in your experience, have you ever encountered
something like this in the casino when it comes to vp? ... sounds like
the stuff of cheap fiction.

(Mind you, I'm not suggesting there aren't situations where a
strategically directed tip won't benefit the player, but something
like this?)

- H.

[WP_SF]

Amigo, you are taking this way too personally, and your inexperience
is showing. Tell you what...at least two places in AC have quarter All
American, not Anti-American, but FP AA, with decent cb. Between that
and the quarter 9-6 Jacks or Better with 1% meter (although lousy cb
and comps) If you spend half as much time working on mastering AA and
playing it as you spend here on VPFree, chances are in a few months or
so, you'll have a workable enough bankroll to play the dollar stuff in
AC. While dollar opportunities aren't as plentiful as they are in
Vegas, at least some decent ones exist. At least in theory. The more
time spent at the keyboard, the more EV lost, IMHO.

Most of the stuff I've done in a casino, and it's a long history, I've
figured out on my own. A lot of you have really unrealistic
expectations as to how the casino business works, but I've had that
rant too many times already, and decline to do so here.

Regarding the Sunshine policy, my interpretation of it is a little
different. The problem is, as has been noted by the more experienced
here, is that the wrong audience will take advantage of the
information. The wrong audience is not the gentle VPFree member, but
the professionals and the occasional knowledgable casino worker (and
believe me, they do exist, and have presence here). So, my calculus is
designed to exclude anything that could be a mistake. The Caesars
10-play was definitely a mistake. Finally, I've been really
forthcoming with info which casual players would find to be extremely
valuable; just ask the Admins here or others. In other words, you're
barking up the wrong tree here.

Anyone want to conduct a little experiment? I mean, wasn't the
Caesars-LVA adventure illustrative enough?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Adams Myth" <Adams_Myth@...> wrote:

Thanks for the links to the two past columns on the topic. I just read
both of them.

In the latter, you said - "However, you can never know for sure that
disclosure wouldn't have been a better option than secrecy in
preserving or prolonging a play."

The prevailing notion here is that when these machines are disclosed,
the riff-raff would come and play the machines, robbing the Dancers,
the Scotts, and the Paladins of their legitimate due! I think that is
far from the case. The riff-raff would not play with the intensity and
devotion of the royalty.

_______________________________________________________________________

paladingaming.net

[WP_SF]

In Northern NV a few years ago, it seemed like the "mistake" games on
the multi-line machines were the same-100.64 or 101% FPJWKB. There
were a number of theories expounded, but on a couple of them,
particularly the $5 5-line machine, bribery was suspect.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

Adams Myth wrote:
> The former kind; the casino people know about it. Which enables them
> to pimp them (like prostitutes under their care) for customers who
> can grease their palms.

Where the heck, in your experience, have you ever encountered
something like this in the casino when it comes to vp? ... sounds like
the stuff of cheap fiction.

(Mind you, I'm not suggesting there aren't situations where a
strategically directed tip won't benefit the player, but something
like this?)

[WP_SF]

Admin, I agree with both your linked posts. The problem lies in
reconciling the two tensions optimally. I've discussed it briefly below.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vp_free@...> wrote:

On 23 Aug 2006 Adams Myth wrote:

> Repeating a post from yesterday. I frankly expected either
> Paladin or the Administrator to respond. Just in case it got
> lost among all the Countdown posts, I post again.

_________________________________________________________________________

paladingaing.net

[Chandler1]

You can spot the casino employees pimping machines. Just look for the broad
brimmed hats and crushed velvet suits.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
Sent: Wednesday, August 23, 2006 4:44 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Reply To Paladin regarding "Four of a KInd Frenzy"

Adams Myth wrote:

The former kind; the casino people know about it. Which enables them
to pimp them (like prostitutes under their care) for customers who
can grease their palms.

Where the heck, in your experience, have you ever encountered
something like this in the casino when it comes to vp? ... sounds like
the stuff of cheap fiction.

[Skip_Hughes2]

paladingamingllc wrote:

So, my calculus is
designed to exclude anything that could be a mistake. The Caesars
10-play was definitely a mistake. Anyone want to conduct a little experiment? I mean, wasn't the
Caesars-LVA adventure illustrative enough? _____________________________________________________

Hey Paladin;
I think you are drawing some fine conclusions ("don't post or write about obvious mistakes") based on an invalid premise. That the CP 10-play was a mistake is NOW pretty obvious to me, but I only say that because I read what you had to say about it after the fact. But it was far from obvious when it was posted about here (unless I missed some key posts, which is possible). My guess is that 90% or more of the people here still have no idea why it was "definitely a mistake".

You mentioned that the game being played was primarily NSU. On the surface, this is hardly a glaring mistake in a casino that has NSU in $5 ($25 bet), $1 JB Multi Strike ($20 bet), quarter Five Play JB MS ($25 bet) and quarter 10-play JB STP ($15 bet) - all games with an equal or higher ER and a bigger bet than the 10-Play NSU. Even if one assumed the SA was the big game, there was nothing that was obvious about the machine being a mistake unless one knew about the incorrect theo and resulting bonus RCs. Maybe someone posted that information here. I looked for a post like that but did not find it. If someone did post that info, then I agree that was a real blunder.

  So I guess someone who had that knowledge (let's say someone who had played it or had been told about it) could have done the right thing and sent direct emails privately to all 6,000+ members of vpFREE warning them of this mistake... OK, that's silly. For one thing you just might be tipping off the very casino you wish to keep in the dark. For another, you don't have access to the email addresses. So maybe there is another way? I personally doubt it, but I can tell you that if someone had tipped me off (and I haven't been in CP in about a year) I certainly would not have written about it.

  OK, I know you have the obvious answer to this dilemma, since you have been so extraordinarily critical of the situation. What is it?

[WP_SF]

(Skip Hughes reply)

Skip, generally speaking, neither Caesars nor Harrahs as a general
rule to offer quarter-denom FPVP (we're talking Vegas here). HET's
marketing philosophy has long been that Vegas is a captive, or put in
other terms, seller's market; hence the poor paytables through their
Vegas casinos. I have written about this many times already on VPFree.
Yes, Caesars is an exception, but this was not originally a HET
property. Paladin speaks with HET execs occasionally, and finds those
conversations illuminating.

The biggest clue was that this machine did not have the traditional
configuration. Instead of the same five games set at 96-97%, it had a
number of FP paytables; 9-6 Jacks, 9-5 SDB, 8-5 SAB, 16-10 Deuces,
9-4-4 BDW, etc. The other half dozen or so machines were set
identically. I think someone coming upon this should assume that
something is not quite right with this picture. Common sense would
dictate that when one gets very large offers for a relatively small
amount of play ($60K coin in would certainly get a $500-$750 offer)
something might not add up here. An experienced player, and most
writers are experienced players, really should realize what's going on.

I wrote more in detail about this at
http://paladingaming.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=36&Itemid=1;
(parental discretion advised-graphic language).

[Skip_Hughes2]

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "paladingamingllc" Common sense would

dictate that when one gets very large offers for a relatively small
amount of play ($60K coin in would certainly get a $500-$750 offer)
something might not add up here. An experienced player, and most
writers are experienced players, really should realize what's going on.

The above, of course, assumes a lot, namely that said writer had
actually played the machine. And someone posting about it here after
playing would not have received any of those offers yet. They might
have noticed the extra bonus RCs, but that's expecting a lot of
analysis from the casual player.

As far as the menu beng non-standard, yes that is a small clue, but
far from being a definite mistake. CP has a record of introducing some
suprisingly decent games in as few as two machines (MS, 5-play MS). So
trying out a single ten-play with decent, but not that different,
expectations is not all that shocking. No sale there.

I wrote more in detail about this at

http://paladingaming.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=36&Itemid=1;

(parental discretion advised-graphic language).

Yes, I read your article (very well written by the way), about the
game and my point is simply that you are wrong. It was a mistake (and
a great play), but far from an obvious mistake. I guess we will just
have to disagree on that point.

[WP_SF]

The above, of course, assumes a lot, namely that said writer had
actually played the machine. And someone posting about it here after
playing would not have received any of those offers yet. They might
have noticed the extra bonus RCs, but that's expecting a lot of
analysis from the casual player.

John Kelly wrote about it, and his offers from the game, a couple of
months back.

As far as the menu beng non-standard, yes that is a small clue, but
far from being a definite mistake. CP has a record of introducing some
suprisingly decent games in as few as two machines (MS, 5-play MS). So
trying out a single ten-play with decent, but not that different,
expectations is not all that shocking. No sale there.

My analysis and premise would be different from yours'. There is a lot
which I would prefer not to discuss on a publc forum. But I will say
this, there is one program on 5-6 machines and another on a single
one, with a difference in 3.5-4% in payout. To say that the average
player might or might not recognize a mistake is debatable, but it is
clear that Caesars had no intention of putting out such a generous
paytable. Keep in mind those who would play the SAB have a $75/hr play
with relatively little risk compared to, say a $2 or $5 single line
player.

I have a great deal of respect for Anthony, but there's no need to be
putting this stuff out for the general public. At $50 a year, they're
getting excellent value already from the general information he offers
his clientele.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Skip Hughes" <skiphughes@...> wrote:

_______________________________________________________________________

paladingaming.net

[Chandler1]

Interesting article. The machine was kind of pokey, so your expected hourly
return might be a little lower. I played it in June and will fess up to not
noticing the extra comp points. Comp points were usually something I took
care to be cognizant of at the old pre HET Caesars, partly because they kept
on disappearing from my account, partly because it was often a mystery what
I would be earning and partly because I was often near the $1000 ceiling and
didn't want to waste my play by going over that. The value I assumed
(99.9%+.1% comps+value of marketing offers) did not have me putting the play
real high on an AP's play list, but at the time I thought it worked nicely
for a tourist interested in staying in plush digs on the Strip. I may have
been more keyed in on live poker that trip, but there is no doubt I mistook
the value of the play. I did consider the possibility that it was a casino
mistake, just not an especially valuable one. FWIW, I did not see much
skilled play on the machine during my short stay and it was often available.

I won't speak for JK or AC, but I doubt they have an interest in pointing
out casino mistakes or killing any golden geese. They do have an interest
in providing information, telling people where, when and how to. It's what
pays their bills. This interest naturally runs counter to someone
protecting a play on occasion.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
paladingamingllc
Sent: Friday, August 25, 2006 10:46 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Reply To Paladin regarding "Four of a KInd Frenzy"

(Skip Hughes reply)

Skip, generally speaking, neither Caesars nor Harrahs as a general
rule to offer quarter-denom FPVP (we're talking Vegas here). HET's
marketing philosophy has long been that Vegas is a captive, or put in
other terms, seller's market; hence the poor paytables through their
Vegas casinos. I have written about this many times already on VPFree.
Yes, Caesars is an exception, but this was not originally a HET
property. Paladin speaks with HET execs occasionally, and finds those
conversations illuminating.

The biggest clue was that this machine did not have the traditional
configuration. Instead of the same five games set at 96-97%, it had a
number of FP paytables; 9-6 Jacks, 9-5 SDB, 8-5 SAB, 16-10 Deuces,
9-4-4 BDW, etc. The other half dozen or so machines were set
identically. I think someone coming upon this should assume that
something is not quite right with this picture. Common sense would
dictate that when one gets very large offers for a relatively small
amount of play ($60K coin in would certainly get a $500-$750 offer)
something might not add up here. An experienced player, and most
writers are experienced players, really should realize what's going on.

I wrote more in detail about this at
http://paladingaming.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=36&Itemid
=1;
(parental discretion advised-graphic language).

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