I just did a RS simulation and it was horrible. I started at nickels
and finally in the five dollars denomination it ended, with a loss of
over $12,500, many times what I had won in the other winning
sessions. The pudding really got rotten. I almost had a heart attack
while playing. I know in a real casino I would not have gone that
high up. Anyway, I see now why a lot of people insult RS. These are
probably people that tried the systems in a casino and encountered a
session like this one I just finished. I can't blame them for being
furious. What is my conclusion? I don't know. Certainly RS systems
are "dangerous". One has to approach them carefully. I would not dump
them in the trash since they did work for many circuits before. I
think gambling is an art as well as a science. If we believe RS's
results, then he is lucky, and he has perfected his art; but us
players have to be very, very careful.
Refreshing Information.
One more thing to think about. RS admitted he lost $900 his second
day in Reno. How is this possible if he follows his own system with
perfect discipline?
Dick
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:
I just did a RS simulation and it was horrible. I started at
nickels
and finally in the five dollars denomination it ended, with a loss
of
over $12,500, many times what I had won in the other winning
sessions. The pudding really got rotten. I almost had a heart
attack
while playing. I know in a real casino I would not have gone that
high up. Anyway, I see now why a lot of people insult RS. These are
probably people that tried the systems in a casino and encountered
a
session like this one I just finished. I can't blame them for being
furious. What is my conclusion? I don't know. Certainly RS systems
are "dangerous". One has to approach them carefully. I would not
dump
···
them in the trash since they did work for many circuits before. I
think gambling is an art as well as a science. If we believe RS's
results, then he is lucky, and he has perfected his art; but us
players have to be very, very careful.
Well, you will have losing sessions using any system, there is no
foolproof system.
I will take the position -unless I'm proven wrong- that RS tells the
truth. Then I have to conclude that he likes to gamble with a
bankroll orders of magnitude larger than I'd be willing to, and that
he is much luckier. This is not unusual, I can say the same of other
notorious VP gamblers, even of the 'advantage' ilk. RS does report on
his gambling tours of losing a lot here, and winning a lot there.
I could never use his system the way he does. I could not go to five
dollar machies after losing in dollar machines and below. I can go up
in denomination if losing, of course, but only if I feel comfortable
in the denomination I'll be playing. For me, then, using an RS
progressive system would have to be starting at denominations far
below those I usually play. I mostly play quarters and dollars, so I
would start at cents or nickels, and then go up to quarters, or
sometimes dollars, by way of any available intermediate
denominations. Actually -again, I'm talking about adapting this for
my taste, others might prefer doing something else- using an RS
system this way would be distracting, amusing and, if I start at
denominations much lower than those I usually play, then I see plenty
of good things in the systems: they will save me money and, it is to
be hoped, they will give me winning sessions more often than just
playing at one machine. I'll see.
···
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:
One more thing to think about. RS admitted he lost $900 his second
day in Reno. How is this possible if he follows his own system with
perfect discipline?Dick
It's not the win/loss result I'm questioning, it's the amount. It
seems to me if you start at $1 and progress 5 levels, betting 400
credits at each level, you will lose around 400*(1+2+5+10+25)
=$17,200, with a few 40 credits additions to nominally lower this
amount. A far cry from $900.
Did I misunderstand your explanation?
Dick
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:
Well, you will have losing sessions using any system, there is no
foolproof system.
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...>
wrote:
> One more thing to think about. RS admitted he lost $900 his
second
> day in Reno. How is this possible if he follows his own system
with
···
> perfect discipline?
>
> Dick
>
>
superquadfullhousroyalistic wrote:
I just did a RS simulation and it was horrible. I started at nickels
and finally in the five dollars denomination it ended, with a loss
of over $12,500, many times what I had won in the other winning
sessions.
Just to understand thoroughly, did you incorporate the shift in play
from lower volatility to higher volatility at the same denomination
that seems to be typical of his reports, or did you merely advance
directly up the denomination ladder.
I forget the details of his published strategy, but a direct
procession up denomination is going to be particularly volatile ...
not that bumping volatility won't be.
I'm not suggesting anything about the validity of his strategy. I
just want to know if your report follows it accurately.
By the way, he makes no bones about the bankroll risk of a given
session. But I'll note that, taken at face value, his results suggest
a fortunate degree of favorable play.
That said, I don't expect that your results are that off base from
whatever his precise strategy might call for. His strategy can't
alter the overall ER of play. But it may very well increase the
likelihood of achieving a given target for profit, after which the
player is to quit altogether (mind you, at considerable risk).
- Harry
You should read my article on the trip before you assume anything.
This trip was not according to my strict rules since I was flown up
by Harrah's. After my win I would have driven straight home if I
drove, but I decided to play a few more sessions. I also went up to
try out a rented Dodge Magnum Hemi that I'm interested in buying.
they are not yet available at the rental cos. in Phoenix or LV. The
ONLY result that means anything is that I came home with a profit,
and that this particular short-term burst was successful.
E: Did you ever wonder why you didn't have a good sim on Friday the
13th?
I can't comment on the exact reason for your result, but I have had 6
losses in double figures. I've also had a dozen sessions end with
RF's on $5 or higher, and if a player owns the proper bankroll as I
spell it out to be, as well as have a firm grip on special plays,
historical data strongly dictates that the player will profit
greatly.
···
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:
One more thing to think about. RS admitted he lost $900 his second
day in Reno. How is this possible if he follows his own system with
perfect discipline?
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:
Then I have to conclude that he likes to gamble with a
bankroll orders of magnitude larger than I'd be willing to, and
that he is much luckier. This is not unusual, I can say the same of
other notorious VP gamblers, even of the 'advantage' ilk. RS does
report on his gambling tours of losing a lot here, and winning a lot
there.
A gambling bankroll is just that--a gambling bankroll. It was saved
only for playing vp as I do it. The order of magnitude is related to
the fact that I play the game for a living as well as how I want to
live. Being 'willing to' is not a factor. If it were then you would
be playing with living expense money. When I play it is not money,
but rather 'units of play'. I do get a bit nervous at the $10 and
higher games, but my determination carries me through. Discipline,
Determination, Goals & Bankroll. If gamblers walked thru casino doors
with those 4 words slapped to their foreheads, no casino manager
would allow them to stay.
That's not the Play Strategy I used. It was RTT and not Single-Play.
···
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rgmustain" <rgmustain@a...> wrote:
It's not the win/loss result I'm questioning, it's the amount. It
seems to me if you start at $1 and progress 5 levels, betting 400
credits at each level, you will lose around 400*(1+2+5+10+25)
=$17,200, with a few 40 credits additions to nominally lower this
amount. A far cry from $900.Did I misunderstand your explanation?
Dick
Hi,
I have been trying simulations of his different strategies. This
particualr one that gave me the steep loss is the second one listed
on his page, it is the multi play strategy. In this strategy you do
not change games going up in volatility (I do like these strategies
with a progression in volatility better, they seem to have a greater
chance of working); you play in a high volatility game, he advises
five play, and you go up in denomination. He plays from dollars up,
but I adapted it from nickels up for the simulation, since I consider
simulations a sort of rehearsal. Also, of course, I did not
incorporate changes in strategy, since I'm not clear on when to do
that. In any case, no matter what I do, one has to expect swings like
this. One can look at it simply, there is no guarantee that on a
given series of sessions machines in any denomination will grace you
with a quad or any nice hit. We have all had, not matter what system
we play, days when we just don't win. This is what happened in this
simulation. I kept losing the 2,000 credits on each denomination
fast. Reminds me of that song, "you got to know when to run".
E
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@v...>
wrote:
superquadfullhousroyalistic wrote:
> I just did a RS simulation and it was horrible. I started at
nickels
> and finally in the five dollars denomination it ended, with a
loss
> of over $12,500, many times what I had won in the other winning
> sessions.Just to understand thoroughly, did you incorporate the shift in play
from lower volatility to higher volatility at the same denomination
that seems to be typical of his reports, or did you merely advance
directly up the denomination ladder.I forget the details of his published strategy, but a direct
procession up denomination is going to be particularly volatile ...
not that bumping volatility won't be.I'm not suggesting anything about the validity of his strategy. I
just want to know if your report follows it accurately.By the way, he makes no bones about the bankroll risk of a given
session. But I'll note that, taken at face value, his results
suggest
···
a fortunate degree of favorable play.
That said, I don't expect that your results are that off base from
whatever his precise strategy might call for. His strategy can't
alter the overall ER of play. But it may very well increase the
likelihood of achieving a given target for profit, after which the
player is to quit altogether (mind you, at considerable risk).- Harry
Well, in some message boards I have been told that perhaps I should
find a hobby other than gambling, since I hate so much the prospect
of losing money. Perhaps that advice is a good one. In any case, I'm
willing to try different systems, the more the better, as long as I
can psychologically tolerate the risk.
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "superquadfullhousroyalistic"
<erchalb@c...> wrote:
Then I have to conclude that he likes to gamble with a
> bankroll orders of magnitude larger than I'd be willing to, and
that he is much luckier. This is not unusual, I can say the same of
other notorious VP gamblers, even of the 'advantage' ilk. RS does
report on his gambling tours of losing a lot here, and winning a
lot
there.
>
A gambling bankroll is just that--a gambling bankroll. It was saved
only for playing vp as I do it. The order of magnitude is related
to
the fact that I play the game for a living as well as how I want to
live. Being 'willing to' is not a factor. If it were then you would
be playing with living expense money. When I play it is not money,
but rather 'units of play'. I do get a bit nervous at the $10 and
higher games, but my determination carries me through. Discipline,
Determination, Goals & Bankroll. If gamblers walked thru casino
doors
···
--- In FREEvpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "deadin7" <deadin7@y...> wrote:
with those 4 words slapped to their foreheads, no casino manager
would allow them to stay.