vpFREE2 Forums

Random Number Generation (RNG), cards drawn, and the 'Deuces...

Just to follow up on Harry's lead, chances of no deuces on the deal is:

48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48 = .65884

So, chances of one or more deuces is 1 - .65884 = .34116, or one hand in
1/.34116 = 2.9312. Just as Mickey calculated. Good job!

Brian

···

=========================================

In a message dated 12/10/2007 8:00:48 PM Pacific Standard Time,
harry.porter@verizon.net writes:

mickeycrimm wrote:

Harry, I don't know everything. I'm an amateur mathematican and still
learning tricks. I've been a pirate of other people's math tricks as
relates to a 52 card deck for a long time.

You know that I'm just giving you a gentle poke in the ribs :wink: The
beauty of "card math" is that most problems require little more than
8th grade arithmetic skills -- the challenge is all in structuring the
problem so that it can be readily cracked. Toss in a few carefully
chosen words like "variance" or "sigma" and you can fool some people
into thinking that it takes an advanced degree to tackle the math.

- H.

**************************************See AOL's top rated recipes
(http://food.aol.com/top-rated-recipes?NCID=aoltop00030000000004)

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Just to follow up on Harry's lead, chances of no deuces on the deal

is:

48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48 = .65884

So, chances of one or more deuces is 1 - .65884 = .34116, or one

hand
in

1/.34116 = 2.9312. Just as Mickey calculated. Good job!

Brian

There is another possible angle to this, although I don't know
whether its true or not. Are there more 5 card redeals, and more
discards, playing deuces wild than regular VP? This seems plausible
because in regular VP we tend to hold face cards (and there are 16 of
them) as compared to deuces (only 4). So isn't it possible the
player will see more cards playing deuces than is true of standard
VP? If so, might that make it more likely to catch a deuce than in
standard VP, simply because you see more cards?

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bjaygold@... wrote:

brumar_lv wrote:

There is another possible angle to this, although I don't know
whether its true or not. Are there more 5 card redeals, and more
discards, playing deuces wild than regular VP? This seems plausible
because in regular VP we tend to hold face cards (and there are 16 of
them) as compared to deuces (only 4). So isn't it possible the
player will see more cards playing deuces than is true of standard
VP? If so, might that make it more likely to catch a deuce than in
standard VP, simply because you see more cards?

Don't be quite so tentative here ... it's a good question to raise and
an intriguing possible explanation as to why one might perceive that
deuces appear more frequently in DW.

In taking a peak at this I chose to take advantage of the hold
statistics that can be found in any of the currently marketed vp
programs (e.g. Frugal, VP Winners, Wolf). This information can be
used to find an accurate expected number of cards from the deck that
are displayed each play, and thus how much more likely a deuce would
appear in one game vs. another.

The results suggest this is an unlikely explanation though. In FPDW,
you expect to turn 8.08 cards per play; in 9/6 JB you turn 7.91. That
translates to seeing an extra deuce about once every 76 plays in DW.
I'd question whether a player who plays 600 hph would really discern
the difference in seeing 373 deuces an hour (on average) playing DW vs
365 in JB. (nonetheless, the greater frequency is consistent with an
assertion earlier in this thread.)

I suspect that what's involved in the OP's perception that you see
deuces turn up more frequently in DW is two things: you're just much
more preoccupied with deuces and, because you hold dealt deuces more
frequently, you see more deuces in the final hands - reinforcing the
perception if it should form.

···

------

I'm digressing now and getting something off my chest: At least two
posts have alluded to trollish behavior by the OP. I find that
unattractive and offensive. This isn't an effort on my part to act as
self-imposed moderator ... I simply abhor any behavior that serves to
dissuade the earnest participation of others.

Now, I'll grant that I have a certain blindness when it comes to
trolls (and in one instance didn't give due credit until one had sunk
it's teeth into my nose and tried to pry part of my face ... ok, so I
exaggerate a bit :wink: But I prefer to reserve adverse judgment where
there's no real harm to be found and there's reason to allow that
someone may be earnest in their questions.

I draw on my own early experience with these groups. When I had a
question about the underlying probabilities for spinpoker the first
response I received was that this had been all been hashed out before
and shown that they were no different from any other vp play and this
was all generally accepted by all now. <Slam Dunk> Translate:
"Well, you're kind of an idiot for asking that."

That experience left me eternally patient for questions that might
show a gap in grasping certain vp fundamentals -- even in those cases
where there might be some (not incessant) resistance to the facts.

I look for one of two behavior traits that characterize a "troll":

-- They raise a question that is known to create modest controversial
reply, and then sit back to enjoy the show (egging things on if they
start to lag).

-- They engage in a dialogue that proceeds something like this:

Troll: "I had x experience that leads me to suspect that the earth
may not be entirely round."

Responded to with cogent explanation why the experience isn't a good
indicator of anything contrary to "earth is round".

Troll then heatedly comes back with 5 obvious justification why the
earth is indeed flat. (And rubs hands in anticipation that someone
will be fool enough to engage in the argument.)

With respect to the OP's history on this group (referred to by someone
who alleged the troll-like behavior), neither of these represent his
posts. I find his questions to be earnestly put forth and the
responses accepted and not challenged (beyond a reasonable attempt to
better understand and test them against existing comprehension).

------

There's a sizable body of members here that are novice players who
seek to better understand the game (and who are somewhat intimidated
from actively contribution). Questions similar to that raised by OP
(original poster), if not that exact question, rest in the minds of
more than one or two. At the very least, OP gives voice to those
questions and a simple cogent explanation (without judgment) serves
many. It does a disservice to the group to discourage such questions.
Save the "troll" lobs for when someone's behavior actually becomes
disruptive.

Harry wrote:

With respect to the OP's history on this group (referred to by someone
who alleged the troll-like behavior), neither of these represent his
posts. I find his questions to be earnestly put forth

I try to give the benefit of the doubt, too, but his "as we all know"
comment seemed a bit trollish to me, which made me hesitate to
participate.

I wrote:

> With respect to the OP's history on this group (referred to by
> someone who alleged the troll-like behavior), neither of these
> represent his posts. I find his questions to be earnestly put
> forth

Tom Robertson replied:

I try to give the benefit of the doubt, too, but his "as we all know"
comment seemed a bit trollish to me, which made me hesitate to
participate.

I'm with you -- in most any context, a post that leads off with "as we
all know" is cause to put your guard up. But I found room, all things
considered, that this reflected a misperception that was so strong as
to have conviction that others certainly had noticed it as well.
Finding nothing to concretely dispel that notion, I went with it.

There were two prudent responses to the post -- to stab at the
misperception a bit to clarify things, or to just set it aside (as you
did).

- H.

I thought about this a little bit also. Despite Harry's numbers I
thinks there's more to this. In deuces wild you tend to hold 3 or 4
cards more often as well as no cards (compared to JoB type games).
Therefore, I suspect you do run into the situation you decscribed more
often and increase the chances of drawing a deuce when one is not
present in the original deal.

It would take a little more work to determine if this was true then
simply checking the "total" number of cards per hand.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@...> wrote:

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
There is another possible angle to this, although I don't know
whether its true or not. Are there more 5 card redeals, and more
discards, playing deuces wild than regular VP? This seems plausible
because in regular VP we tend to hold face cards (and there are 16 of
them) as compared to deuces (only 4). So isn't it possible the
player will see more cards playing deuces than is true of standard
VP? If so, might that make it more likely to catch a deuce than in
standard VP, simply because you see more cards?

Just to follow up on Harry's lead, chances of no deuces on the deal

is:

48/52 * 47/51 * 46/50 * 45/49 * 44/48 = .65884

So, chances of one or more deuces is 1 - .65884 = .34116, or one

hand in

1/.34116 = 2.9312. Just as Mickey calculated. Good job!

Brian

=========================================

Brian, thanks for the math clinic. Your way gets to the bottom line
extremely fast.

Usually, every time I solve a math problem, it leaves me with more
questions. I came up with a single deuce appearing on the deal every
3.4 times. This would mean that a card of any rank, for example,
Aces, Kings, etc., should appear every 3.4 games. And if you specify
suit with the card you would just multiply by 4, wouldn't you? Like
the deuce of hearts should appear every 13.6 deals. And, by logic,
that would be the probability of any specific card appearing on the
deal.

And you can make the calculation for any combination of cards, like,
how often would we see the deuce of hearts along with the ace of
spades together on the deal. You could do this for all the two-card
combinations. This can be extended to three-card, four-card and five-
card combinations.

Since all of these probabilites can be calculated wouldn't this be
one of the ways State of Nevada. Division of Gaming tests the RNG.
By collecting statistics from billions of deals they would be able to
see if there are any statistical irregularities, wouldn't they?

Just some thoughts. Anyways, I don't have time for "fun with
numbers" this morning. I have to go out and make some money. Good
luck.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, bjaygold@... wrote:

mickeycrimm wrote:

I came up with a single deuce appearing on the deal every
3.4 times. This would mean that a card of any rank, for example,
Aces, Kings, etc., should appear every 3.4 games. And if you specify
suit with the card you would just multiply by 4, wouldn't you? Like
the deuce of hearts should appear every 13.6 deals. And, by logic,
that would be the probability of any specific card appearing on the
deal.

This number should be 10.4, with 52 cards competing for 5 spots each
time. You forgot that your number of 3.4 is how often one of each
rank occurs without any other card of that rank, not the reciprocal of
the average of how many of that rank occurs.

brumar_lv wrote:

> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> There is another possible angle to this, although I don't know
> whether its true or not. Are there more 5 card redeals, and more
> discards, playing deuces wild than regular VP? This seems
> plausible because
> in regular VP we tend to hold face cards (and there are 16 of
> them) as compared to deuces (only 4). So isn't it possible the
> player will see more cards playing deuces than is true of standard
> VP? If so, might that make it more likely to catch a deuce than in
> standard VP, simply because you see more cards?

mroejacks replied:

I thought about this a little bit also. Despite Harry's numbers I
thinks there's more to this. In deuces wild you tend to hold 3 or 4
cards more often as well as no cards (compared to JoB type games).
Therefore, I suspect you do run into the situation you decscribed
more often and increase the chances of drawing a deuce when one is
not present in the original deal.

It would take a little more work to determine if this was true then
simply checking the "total" number of cards per hand.

Dick, I'm not 100% sure I draw the distinction you're making between
what I suggested and what you're stating ... other than arriving at a
different conclusion.

Just as a refresher, what I asserted was that in DW you draw an
average of 3.08 cards per draw; in JB you pull an average of 2.91
cards -- such a small difference that I doubted anyone would notice in
play a difference in the frequency with which deuces appeared.
Between draw and deal, the frequency with which deuces appear in the
two games differs by only 2%.

Now, as far as how draws are distributed between number of cards held
in each game, you're correct in saying that you hold 3 cards more
often in DW. However, 4 cards are held with roughly the same
frequency. It's also the case that you hold 2 cards broadly more
often in JB, and toss all 5 cards much more often in DW. I stick with
the position that it's only when you look at "total" average number of
cards held per hand that you get the full picture.

For what it's worth, here are the frequencies with which you hold 0-5
cards in each game:

Hold 0 . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 .. Avg draw

DW: 19% 14% 37% 17% 10% 02% . 3.1 cards
JB: 03% 15% 64% 06% 11% 01% . 2.9 cards

- Harry

mickeycrimm wrote:

>I came up with a single deuce appearing on the deal every
>3.4 times. This would mean that a card of any rank, for example,
>Aces, Kings, etc., should appear every 3.4 games. And if you
>specify suit with the card you would just multiply by 4, wouldn't
>you? Like the deuce of hearts should appear every 13.6 deals. And,
>by logic, that would be the probability of any specific card
>appearing on the
>deal.

Tom Robertson <madameguyon@...> wrote:

This number should be 10.4, with 52 cards competing for 5 spots each
time. You forgot that your number of 3.4 is how often one of each
rank occurs without any other card of that rank, not the reciprocal
of the average of how many of that rank occurs.

Just to reconcile, Tom's 10.4 is readily arrived at. Extending his
logic, you have 5 cards in a hand in which the selected card may
appear, therefore the odds of appearing in any given hand are 5/52.
The number of hands over which you expect to see the card appear once
is the reciprocal: 52/5 = 10.4

Mickey wasn't terribly off track. The slip was in overlooking that
the "3.4 hands" was the frequency with which AT LEAST one deuce would
appear on the deal. On those appearances, of course, there can be one
or more deuces. On average, you'll actually see 1.3 deuces in a dealt
hand containing deuces.

This tells us that the ratio of dealt hands to each individual deuce
that appears is 2.6 (3.4/1.3). This is the value that you can
multiply by 4 if you want to determine, in the manner desired by
Mickey, how frequently a deuce of a given suit appears.

- Harry

Harry wrote:

the "3.4 hands" was the frequency with which AT LEAST one deuce would
appear on the deal.

That's how often exactly one deuce occurs. At least one deuce occurs
every 2.9312 hands.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

Dick, I'm not 100% sure I draw the distinction you're making between
what I suggested and what you're stating ... other than arriving at

a

different conclusion.

Just as a refresher, what I asserted was that in DW you draw an
average of 3.08 cards per draw; in JB you pull an average of 2.91
cards -- such a small difference that I doubted anyone would notice

in

play a difference in the frequency with which deuces appeared.
Between draw and deal, the frequency with which deuces appear in the
two games differs by only 2%.

Now, as far as how draws are distributed between number of cards

held

in each game, you're correct in saying that you hold 3 cards more
often in DW. However, 4 cards are held with roughly the same
frequency. It's also the case that you hold 2 cards broadly more
often in JB, and toss all 5 cards much more often in DW. I stick

with

the position that it's only when you look at "total" average number

of

cards held per hand that you get the full picture.

For what it's worth, here are the frequencies with which you hold 0-

5

cards in each game:

Hold 0 . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 .. Avg draw

DW: 19% 14% 37% 17% 10% 02% . 3.1 cards
JB: 03% 15% 64% 06% 11% 01% . 2.9 cards

Harry, my point was that you'll see final hands with a single deuce
more often simply because of the dynamics of the hold situations. If
you're dealt a deuce you already have one but you typically are
holding more cards. When you are not dealt a deuce then you are
tossing more cards on average which provides more room for a deuce
draw. Nothing too significant, but it may lead to the perception of
more deuces that Gilbert was getting at.

Dick

It occurs to me that in analyzing a DW game an important factor is missing, perfect play.
The way a game is played influences the probability outcomes. If it didn't, then game
strategy cards would be useless. In an estimate of a deuce appearing in every 2 to 3 hands,
and DW perfect play calls for a lot of five card redraws. Then a five card redraw would count
as a hand, so if I'm dealt a hand, discard it, redraw another without any deuces in it, then
it would be reasonable to expect my next dealt hand to contain a deuce while technically
it is only my second hand, therefore an increase in deuces recieved.

Jackie

···

----- Original Message -----
From: Harry Porter
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, December 11, 2007 12:10 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Random Number Generation (RNG), cards drawn, and the 'Deuces...

brumar_lv wrote:

There is another possible angle to this, although I don't know
whether its true or not. Are there more 5 card redeals, and more
discards, playing deuces wild than regular VP? This seems plausible
because in regular VP we tend to hold face cards (and there are 16 of
them) as compared to deuces (only 4). So isn't it possible the
player will see more cards playing deuces than is true of standard
VP? If so, might that make it more likely to catch a deuce than in
standard VP, simply because you see more cards?

Don't be quite so tentative here ... it's a good question to raise and
an intriguing possible explanation as to why one might perceive that
deuces appear more frequently in DW.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

It occurs to me that in analyzing a DW game an important factor is

missing, perfect play.

The way a game is played influences the probability outcomes. If

it didn't, then game

strategy cards would be useless. In an estimate of a deuce

appearing in every 2 to 3 hands,

and DW perfect play calls for a lot of five card redraws. Then a

five card redraw would count

as a hand, so if I'm dealt a hand, discard it, redraw another

without any deuces in it, then

it would be reasonable to expect my next dealt hand to contain a

deuce while technically

it is only my second hand, therefore an increase in deuces recieved.

Every hand is independent (as required by law). As a result the
PROBABILITY of getting a deuce on any hand is the same no matter what
has transpired previously. This is a point that most people simply do
not get. However, if you ever want to understand VP (or gambling in
general) it is a concept you need to understand.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jackie" <ajackiek@...> wrote:

It occurs to me that in analyzing a DW game an important factor is missing, perfect play.
The way a game is played influences the probability outcomes. If it didn't, then game
strategy cards would be useless. In an estimate of a deuce appearing in every 2 to 3 hands,
and DW perfect play calls for a lot of five card redraws. Then a five card redraw would count
as a hand, so if I'm dealt a hand, discard it, redraw another without any deuces in it, then
it would be reasonable to expect my next dealt hand to contain a deuce while technically
it is only my second hand, therefore an increase in deuces recieved.

Jackie

And, conversely, if deuces appear in a hand, they're less likely to
appear in the next hand, thus drastically reducing its expected value.
When you play Deuces Wild, Jackie, do you reduce your bet after a hand
in which a deuce has appeared and then increase it after 2 hands in
which one hasn't occurred? Wouldn't "perfect play" have to
continually adjust for the always changing probability that deuces
will occur based on how many deuces have occurred in recent hands?
How do you make such adjustments when you play? Have books been
written based on studies of these "cycles?" If they really exist,
those who master them should be making far more money than
professionals do who assume they don't exist.

I think it's ironic that approximately as many people seem to believe
in each of 2 conflicting, but similarly based, theories. One is
commonly called the "due" theory, which Jackie is suggesting, and the
other can be called the "momentum" (or "anti-due") theory, which
suggests that machines that are "hot" will stay hot and machines which
are "cold" will stay cold.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@>
wrote:
> Dick, I'm not 100% sure I draw the distinction you're making

between

> what I suggested and what you're stating ... other than arriving

at

a
> different conclusion.
>
> Just as a refresher, what I asserted was that in DW you draw an
> average of 3.08 cards per draw; in JB you pull an average of 2.91
> cards -- such a small difference that I doubted anyone would

notice

in
> play a difference in the frequency with which deuces appeared.
> Between draw and deal, the frequency with which deuces appear in

the

> two games differs by only 2%.
>
> Now, as far as how draws are distributed between number of cards
held
> in each game, you're correct in saying that you hold 3 cards more
> often in DW. However, 4 cards are held with roughly the same
> frequency. It's also the case that you hold 2 cards broadly more
> often in JB, and toss all 5 cards much more often in DW. I stick
with
> the position that it's only when you look at "total" average

number

of
> cards held per hand that you get the full picture.
>
> For what it's worth, here are the frequencies with which you hold

0-

5
> cards in each game:
>
> Hold 0 . 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 .. Avg draw
>
> DW: 19% 14% 37% 17% 10% 02% . 3.1 cards
> JB: 03% 15% 64% 06% 11% 01% . 2.9 cards

Harry, my point was that you'll see final hands with a single deuce
more often simply because of the dynamics of the hold situations.

If

you're dealt a deuce you already have one but you typically are
holding more cards. When you are not dealt a deuce then you are
tossing more cards on average which provides more room for a deuce
draw. Nothing too significant, but it may lead to the perception of
more deuces that Gilbert was getting at.

Dick
-------------------------------------------------------------------

gilbert wrote:
Thank you guys for all your valuable inputs - slowly but surely
correcting all my bad perceptions to the game. With very little play
I do on Deuces Wild and mainly playing the JoB and Bonus games, maybe
my eyes were really seeing double on the amount of 2s displayed on a
DW game. I have WinPoker and FVP programs and just too lazy to do my
own analysis. If I get the time, maybe I can apply what I learned
from the responses here and do analysis on frequency of the "Ace" in
both DB and DDB games versus the TDB game.

And I'm really sorry for the stupid mistake of typing the "as we all
know" stuff. On a scale of 1 to 10 where 10 is highest, I know that
many of the people in this forum are in the 7 or 8 and higher level
while the people I play vp with most of the time plus myself are in
the level 2 or 3 or lower. So when I say "we" (now or in the
future), I mean "me and my co-rookies in the vp game" and NOT "me and
the vp gurus, experts, pros like many here".

Regarding the "trolling" thing, I don't even know what it means even
if I had seen the movie "Troll in Central Park" a couple of times
with the kids. And now that someone had provided some definition of
it, it will be a no-brainer to be a troll IF necessary -- a simple
Copy and Paste from some of RS previous messages should do it.

Next time I have a similar question, maybe I should just asked
someone like Dean Zamzow or Jim Wolf.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote: