vpFREE2 Forums

random cyclicality in vp

#1

Denflo60 wrote .....

I am not trying to predict randomness, but I want to roll with the
swings and there definitely are swings. Remember I'm playing
somewhere between $125 and $1,250 betting 5 coins in 50 or 100 way
games or $25 in single hands games. I am not trying to make a
killing % wise on a session. One or two strong positive hands is all
it takes. If there's a downward trend that is too long for my
liking, I truncate the game. If I see what I consider a positive
trend I set a floor under how much I'm willing to give back and I may
increase the bet or go to a higher variance game as long as I remain
above the floor I set. None of this contradicts perfect play. Denny

Denny, if you really believe that the current hand you are playing is not related to the previous hands you have played, streaks and swings are just history reporting and shouldn't influence your decision on whether to keep playing or how much to bet.

I'd need a whole lot of hands to prove it but I'd hypothesize that your results for the next hand played after hitting 2 straights in a row are the same as your results after 2 non paying hands in a row. The previous hands don't affect the current hand. In blackjack, they do. In video poker, they don't.

When I played the 5 play full pay deuces at Arizona Charlies back in March, I managed to lose about $800 in 2 hours. Did I lose the last $200 ( after having lost $600) because I was on a bad streak? No, I lost because sometimes you lose a lot of money at FP Deuces. It sure seems like it sometimes but if I believed there was some other factor in determining my hand ( hot streaks, cold streaks, weekends vs weekdays, etc.) I would not put another dollar in a machine. I believe that my next hand still has the same EV as the previous hands, no matter how good or bad the previous hands have been.

If you play 10 hands of 9/6 JOB and hit 2 pair 5 times and get nothing 5 times, you are even after 10 hands. If in those same 10 hands, you got 2 pair the first 5 hands and got nothing the last 5 hands, you would still be even after 10 hands. You might inclined to think that 'I should have quit after 5 hands' but the bottom line is that you really don't know what the next hand will bring.

···

________________________________________________________________________
AOL now offers free email to everyone. Find out more about what's free from AOL at AOL.com.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, greeklandjohnny@... wrote:

I believe that my next hand still has the same EV as the previous

hands, no matter how good or bad the previous hands have been.

Exactly! A couple of months ago I reported on a little test I did of an
actual RNG. I evaluated each and every sequential hand that the RNG
generated to see if the RNG had imbedded hot or cold streaks. The
results demonstrated very little variation around the mean. In fact,
the variation decreased as more hands were examined which is exactly
what would be expected of ANY series of random hands (convergence to
the ER).

I don't believe that Denny disputes any of this. His idea is that he
can somehow detect short term swings and improve his results. The
problem with this approach is that there is no way to detect these
swings since, as Jean and others have pointed out, they only exist
historically. There is no reason to believe that the next session won't
continue a losing swing (or winning swing) since the swings are NOT
part of any machine's programming but are simply part of an
individual's ongoing play. Those of us who play a lot can easily verify
some pretty long good and bad swings.

Dick

#3

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, greeklandjohnny@ wrote:
> I believe that my next hand still has the same EV as the previous
hands, no matter how good or bad the previous hands have been.
>

Exactly! A couple of months ago I reported on a little test I did

of an

actual RNG. I evaluated each and every sequential hand that the RNG
generated to see if the RNG had imbedded hot or cold streaks. The
results demonstrated very little variation around the mean. In

fact,

the variation decreased as more hands were examined which is

exactly

what would be expected of ANY series of random hands (convergence

to

the ER).
------------------------------------------------------------------

gilbert wrote:
Believe IT or Not!!!
Random is random is random. And no matter how honest and random the
vp machines are...we should all agree that the casinos have these
machines on their floors --> for PROFIT.

In short, the randomness programmed in these vp machines are still in
favor of the casinos. Otherwise, they'll be gone by now and replaced
with Wheel Of Fortune machines or the 1c Blazing 777s.

...just my opinion...

I don't believe that Denny disputes any of this. His idea is that

he

can somehow detect short term swings and improve his results. The
problem with this approach is that there is no way to detect these
swings since, as Jean and others have pointed out, they only exist
historically. There is no reason to believe that the next session

won't

continue a losing swing (or winning swing) since the swings are NOT
part of any machine's programming but are simply part of an
individual's ongoing play. Those of us who play a lot can easily

verify

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "mroejacks" <rgmustain@...> wrote:

some pretty long good and bad swings.

Dick

#4

I'm not sure what you are getting at since your two paragraphs are
contradictory. The statement ... "the randomness programmed in these vp
machines are still in favor of the casinos" is not true. The PAY TABLES
set up on the majority of the machines are definitely in favor of the
casinos. A few machines (and getting fewer all the time) still favor
the advantage player.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "gilbert_616" <gilbert_616@...> wrote:

gilbert wrote:
Believe IT or Not!!!
Random is random is random. And no matter how honest and random the
vp machines are...we should all agree that the casinos have these
machines on their floors --> for PROFIT.

In short, the randomness programmed in these vp machines are still in
favor of the casinos. Otherwise, they'll be gone by now and replaced
with Wheel Of Fortune machines or the 1c Blazing 777s.

...just my opinion...