I wrote:
> "Random Cyclicality" is an oxymoron. Something can not be both random
> and cyclical.Dan
"denflo60" <mailto:dennis.flore…@…net?Subject=
Re%3A%20Random%20Cyclicality%20in%20Video%20Poker>dennis.florence@worldnet.att.net
responded
Well Dan you wrote a book years ago of which I have read both
editions. Maybe my terms are not precisely correct but take a look at
DDB. I see huge randomness and cyclicality when you play your hands.
My definition here is big swings around a long term mean in the
positive and negatve directions which happen on random (irregular
swings of undeterminate magnitude which occur over irregular time
increments from 0 to infinity) of which I only utilize lets say only
consider the first few thousand max hands of play, because I stop and
start all over again. Call it what you will, but with a big enough
banroll if you don't go bankrupt you will see the swings. I not
trying to predict when you're going to go through an inflection point
but rather react to going through an inflection point. Call it what
you will. Denny
I call it random, as would most statisticians and game theorists.
If it's cyclical, it's not random. If it's random, it's not cyclical.
Big swings are random events. Some people have the misconception that
"random" implies even distribution. It does not. Randomness is
naturally clumpy. Random games naturally run in streaks, causing
fluctuations in your bankroll. Any game with small probabilities of
large payoffs (e.g., video poker) will be "streaky."
Honest video poker machines (i.e., those approved for use in Nevada
and Louisiana) are random. There are no cycles. The term "cycle" used
for the frequency of a royal flush is a misleading term that I try to
avoid; it is merely the reciprocal of the probability of a royal on
any one play.
Dan
···
--
Dan Paymar
Author of best selling book, "Video Poker - Optimum Play"
Developer of VP analysis/trainer software "Optimum Video Poker"
Visit my web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
"Chance favors the prepared mind." -- Louis Pasteur
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