vpFREE2 Forums

Random Cyclicality in Video Poker

Denny,

I'd suggest reading the brand new edition of Burton Malkiel's A RANDOM WALK DOWN WALL STREET. Although I don't agree with all of his conclusions, I think he makes a convincing case for the futility of trying to capture short-term movements in the stock market and in trying to catch lightning in a bottle with technical analysis.

Our brains seem to be hard-wired to try to find relationships in events that prove to be random. All computers do is more easily find relationships that aren't necessarily meaningful in the stock market.

I don't think the EV in video poker is the equivalent of commission fees to a stock market investor. The pay schedule in VP limits your upside potential in a way a brokerage commission does not. I'd say that the gas money or airplane ticket necessary to get to the casino is more equivalent to the stock commission.

ยทยทยท

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David Feldman
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