vpFREE2 Forums

Random Cyclicality in Video Poker

#1

Please bear with the long introduction.

The windmill chaser is back. So I will first address this question to
the administator so he/she can determine if this is a suitable
question for all, or is it better handled as private responses only
to me if such a thing is allowed on this website, or is it better
handled on freeVPfree (heaven forbid), or its just to stupid to
post. I think in the past my questions have been reasonable. For
example I find that there aren't many admitted higher rolling VP
players in the country who face a tax situation similar to mine.
Rather than repeating credentials I will just say I am a retired ex
businessman which with college technical and business degrees who
have played VP at progressively higher denominations for six or more
years. At my age I enjoy the kick of learning just for the sake of
learning and if I happen to turn it into a new profession that's
great, but if I fail I am no worth for wear other than time lost.
That said let me try a new version of of an old question that I have
voiced on this and other websites.

I know that if you play over the long run with perfect play you end
up with the summation of the results that the pay table states. I
also know that during this period of infinite play, there are random
repeated violent swings around the mean of the long run curve as time
goes from 0 to infinity. I also know that at least at the beginning
of (Pick a number 0-20,000 hands?) many of the swings quitting at an
appropriate time can leave you with more money than you started
with. The higher the variance of the game the more volatile the
swings. I also recognize that the swings while definitely random
over time will be present even if magnitude and duration are random.

So I say to myself how is this any different than speculation in for
example currency trading, high growth stocks, etc. I also say why
are the market transaction fees (amount could be) any different than
the casino edge in for example video poker. Let's take $5 Jacks or
better at Wynn just as an example and lets forget about any comps for
this disciussion other than cash back where the edge would be (1-
99.54) plus ,22 cashback for a total of .26% with long run perfect
play. While the number is small to any individual its huge to the
casino given total coin in and non perfect play which most of us do.
So is this .26% much different in principle than the brokerage fees
on a financial transaction (forget the exact amounts). So I says(sic)
to myself, given this transaction fee can the short term random
swings be played to overcome the transaction fees and end up a winner
in the (Here comes a bad word) short run. Now I don't know much
about momentum investors in financial market, and I admit many of
them go broke, but I believe that some professors out there have
come up with some mathematical formula that they have applied to
short term investing. So far the little I've read leads me to
believe that perhaps "game theory" (Von Neumann et al, can
theoretically provide such an answer even though it might be
impossible to implement in the real world. I read a recent short
article on this subject by Mike Caro as it applies to live poker
playing. It seemed to me instead of assuming that you're playing
against a live player, you're playing against a random number
generator as an opponent in video poker.

That said, who can direct me to the field of study, books, doctoral
theses etc, where this kind of subject is discussed. I am continuing
my search at the same time. Denny

Guidance please. Denny

#2

denflo60 wrote:

The windmill chaser is back. So I will first address this question to
the administator so he/she can determine if this is a suitable
question for all, or is it better handled as private responses only
to me if such a thing is allowed on this website, or is it better
handled on freeVPfree (heaven forbid), or its just to stupid to
post ... That said let me try a new version of of an old question
that I have voiced on this and other websites.

Denny, I suspect you mean to suggest a bit of windmill tilting (ala
Don Quixote)? :wink: So long as you post straightforward vp-related
questions, that's hardly the case (the replies from which you're free
to accept or reject as you see fit). If you want to dispute at length
any feedback, that might best be taken to fVPf (though I'm hardly the
one to make that call).

I know that if you play over the long run with perfect play you end
up with the summation of the results that the pay table states. I
also know that during this period of infinite play, there are random
repeated violent swings around the mean of the long run curve as time
goes from 0 to infinity. I also know that at least at the beginning
of (Pick a number 0-20,000 hands?) many of the swings quitting at an
appropriate time can leave you with more money than you started
with. The higher the variance of the game the more volatile the
swings. I also recognize that the swings while definitely random
over time will be present even if magnitude and duration are random.

So I say to myself how is this any different than speculation in for
example currency trading, high growth stocks, etc. I also say why
are the market transaction fees (amount could be) any different than
the casino edge in for example video poker ... So is this .26% much
different in principle than the brokerage fees on a financial
transaction (forget the exact amounts). So I says(sic)
to myself, given this transaction fee can the short term random
swings be played to overcome the transaction fees and end up a winner
in the (Here comes a bad word) short run.

There's no mystery or magic about the fact that higher volatility game
swings yield a higher strong win probability for any given session.
It's common sense. Of course, the offset to higher volatility is
higher probability of a substantial loss (sometimes well in advance of
ever achieving much of a short-term win at all). Call it the Yin/Yang
of vp (and some have their sights set on the "Yin" and disregard the
"Yang" altogether).

Forget the "transaction fee" analogy. Whether in finance or vp, if
you have a negative expectation proposition, your short term prospects
are negative -- and any decent number of simulations under any given
assumptions will bear that fact out. End of story.

But, the basic truth is that increased volatility will increase the
probability that you come out of any given session with a sizable win
above expectation. If that's your target, and you have much less
concern about the downside, volatility (whether derived through higher
variance games, denomination escalation, or variable length sessions)
is indeed your friend. It just won't boost your EV/ER.

So far the little I've read leads me to believe that perhaps "game
theory" (Von Neumann et al, can theoretically provide such an answer
even though it might be impossible to implement in the real world.

Game theory deals with the differing strategies by multiple
participants in a situation. VP is solitaire ... your strategy is the
only factor that's variable when it comes to playing a machine.
(Overall targeting of play in a casino is a different matter, but
that's outside the scope of play strategy and "money management", etc.)

That said, who can direct me to the field of study, books, doctoral
theses etc, where this kind of subject is discussed.

I would direct you to the very basics -- mastering game strategy in
addition to concepts of ER, EV, and bankroll requirements of each play
... plus astute gathering of intelligence on what each casino has to
offer.

Beyond that I, personally, will suggest you (or anyone) are chasing
rainbows :slight_smile: ... but that's simply my take -- everyone is welcome to
their own.

- Harry

#3

I know that if you play over the long run with perfect play you end
up with the summation of the results that the pay table states. I
also know that during this period of infinite play, there are random
repeated violent swings around the mean of the long run curve as time
goes from 0 to infinity.

"Approach" is a more accurate term than "end up with." There is no
such thing as a "period of infinite play" any more than you could ever
reach infinity by counting upwards, no matter how long you did it.

Guidance please. Denny

I thought Game Theory was only applicable to non random situations
involving the predictable will of human beings. One of the main
characteristics of randomness is its unpredictability. If stock
market investors can capitalize on trends, it's only because they've
found non-randomness and predictability. Yes, the "short run" is a
"bad word" because it implies that one has to get lucky to win and
can't expect to maintain it in the long run, whereas it sounds like
you're looking for a way to maintain it without depending on luck.
I've heard that video poker machines can't be completely random, but
I'm not aware of anyone taking advantage of that impossibility. The
first person to do it can probably make an unlimited amount of money
until his/her secret becomes known.

#4

A 9/6 DDB player with alot of gamble in him explained it to me like
this "To hell with percentages! The money gets thrown back and forth.
I try to quit when more money has been thrown my way than the other
way."

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

But, the basic truth is that increased volatility will increase the
probability that you come out of any given session with a sizable win
above expectation. If that's your target, and you have much less
concern about the downside, volatility (whether derived through higher
variance games, denomination escalation, or variable length sessions)
is indeed your friend. It just won't boost your EV/ER.

#5

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...>
wrote:

Rather than repeating credentials I will just say I am a retired

ex

businessman which with college technical and business degrees who
have played VP at progressively higher denominations for six or

more

years. At my age I enjoy the kick of learning just for the sake

of

learning and if I happen to turn it into a new profession that's
great, but if I fail I am no worth for wear other than time lost.
That said let me try a new version of of an old question that I

have

voiced on this and other websites.

First our backgrounds and current situations are quite similar.
But, since I live in the midwest and its a 3 hour drive to the
nearest decent casino, VP is a once monthly recreation. I like to
play good machines, and play well, but don't really have any
positive aspirations. For me its baseball analysis and the prospects
of getting positive edges there. But it's all just mental
entertainment in retirement.

That said, who can direct me to the field of study, books,

doctoral

theses etc, where this kind of subject is discussed. I am

continuing

my search at the same time.

Denny, I don't have anything that specifically addresses your wants,
but would recommend the book "Fortune's Formula" by William
Poundstone. You may have already read it, but if not it's fairly
entertaining. And it will cause you to think about gambling,
markets, and mathematics. What more is there?

#6

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

denflo60 wrote:
> The windmill chaser is back. So I will first address this

question to

> the administator so he/she can determine if this is a suitable
> question for all, or is it better handled as private responses

only

> to me if such a thing is allowed on this website, or is it better
> handled on freeVPfree (heaven forbid), or its just to stupid to
> post ... That said let me try a new version of of an old question
> that I have voiced on this and other websites.

Denny, I suspect you mean to suggest a bit of windmill tilting (ala
Don Quixote)? :wink: So long as you post straightforward vp-related
questions, that's hardly the case (the replies from which you're

free

to accept or reject as you see fit). If you want to dispute at

length

any feedback, that might best be taken to fVPf (though I'm hardly

the

one to make that call).

> I know that if you play over the long run with perfect play you

end

> up with the summation of the results that the pay table states.

I

> also know that during this period of infinite play, there are

random

> repeated violent swings around the mean of the long run curve as

time

> goes from 0 to infinity. I also know that at least at the

beginning

> of (Pick a number 0-20,000 hands?) many of the swings quitting at

an

> appropriate time can leave you with more money than you started
> with. The higher the variance of the game the more volatile the
> swings. I also recognize that the swings while definitely random
> over time will be present even if magnitude and duration are

random.

>
> So I say to myself how is this any different than speculation in

for

> example currency trading, high growth stocks, etc. I also say

why

> are the market transaction fees (amount could be) any different

than

> the casino edge in for example video poker ... So is this .26%

much

> different in principle than the brokerage fees on a financial
> transaction (forget the exact amounts). So I says(sic)
> to myself, given this transaction fee can the short term random
> swings be played to overcome the transaction fees and end up a

winner

> in the (Here comes a bad word) short run.

There's no mystery or magic about the fact that higher volatility

game

swings yield a higher strong win probability for any given session.
It's common sense. Of course, the offset to higher volatility is
higher probability of a substantial loss (sometimes well in advance

of

ever achieving much of a short-term win at all). Call it the

Yin/Yang

of vp (and some have their sights set on the "Yin" and disregard the
"Yang" altogether).

Forget the "transaction fee" analogy. Whether in finance or vp, if
you have a negative expectation proposition, your short term

prospects

are negative -- and any decent number of simulations under any given
assumptions will bear that fact out. End of story.

But, the basic truth is that increased volatility will increase the
probability that you come out of any given session with a sizable

win

above expectation. If that's your target, and you have much less
concern about the downside, volatility (whether derived through

higher

variance games, denomination escalation, or variable length

sessions)

is indeed your friend. It just won't boost your EV/ER.

> So far the little I've read leads me to believe that

perhaps "game

> theory" (Von Neumann et al, can theoretically provide such an

answer

> even though it might be impossible to implement in the real world.

Game theory deals with the differing strategies by multiple
participants in a situation. VP is solitaire ... your strategy is

the

only factor that's variable when it comes to playing a machine.
(Overall targeting of play in a casino is a different matter, but
that's outside the scope of play strategy and "money management",

etc.)

> That said, who can direct me to the field of study, books,

doctoral

> theses etc, where this kind of subject is discussed.

I would direct you to the very basics -- mastering game strategy in
addition to concepts of ER, EV, and bankroll requirements of each

play

... plus astute gathering of intelligence on what each casino has to
offer.

Beyond that I, personally, will suggest you (or anyone) are chasing
rainbows :slight_smile: ... but that's simply my take -- everyone is welcome to
their own.
  
Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments. Would you
folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly strange
intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as dealt
4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to one
or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing straight
through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose and I
can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time. Denny

···

- Harry

#7

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@>
wrote:
> Rather than repeating credentials I will just say I am a retired
ex
> businessman which with college technical and business degrees who
> have played VP at progressively higher denominations for six or
more
> years. At my age I enjoy the kick of learning just for the sake
of
> learning and if I happen to turn it into a new profession that's
> great, but if I fail I am no worth for wear other than time

lost.

> That said let me try a new version of of an old question that I
have
> voiced on this and other websites.

First our backgrounds and current situations are quite similar.
But, since I live in the midwest and its a 3 hour drive to the
nearest decent casino, VP is a once monthly recreation. I like to
play good machines, and play well, but don't really have any
positive aspirations. For me its baseball analysis and the

prospects

of getting positive edges there. But it's all just mental
entertainment in retirement.

> That said, who can direct me to the field of study, books,
doctoral
> theses etc, where this kind of subject is discussed. I am
continuing
> my search at the same time.

Denny, I don't have anything that specifically addresses your

wants,

but would recommend the book "Fortune's Formula" by William
Poundstone. You may have already read it, but if not it's fairly
entertaining. And it will cause you to think about gambling,
markets, and mathematics. What more is there?

  Lanke: The Poundstone book is what got my juices started on this
subject. I then read the recent book by Konik on the subject of
betting on football and basketball games which I do not do and the
juices flowed even more. Thank you. Denny

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "lanke" <lanke@...> wrote:

#8

Gamblers have been trying to find the secret for winning in the short term for thousands of years - well, maybe hundreds of years. There have been many "systems" to try to achieve this but they have always lead to ruin.

You CAN set tiny win goals and succeed in winning for MANY sessions, but eventually you will hit a losing one that will take all your wins AND your original bankroll. Try any system on a computer program and it will fail eventually. Unless you can find a non-random machine, it is futile to try to "time" your starting and stopping times to achieve a better EV than the math.

Most systems that recommend quitting at certain times appeal to your "human" desires, not math facts.

···

________________________________________
Jean $�ott - "FRUGAL VIDEO POKER"
This new book (autographed) and other
   frugal products are now available at my
   new Web site, http://queenofcomps.com/.
   E-mail address is queenofcomps@cox.net.

#9

denflo60 wrote:

Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments. Would you
folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly strange
intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as dealt
4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to one
or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing straight
through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose and I
can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time. Denny

Timing of play, by itself, has no impact one way or the other. There
are many other things various players are inclined to do that also
have no impact (e.g. changing machines when the current one goes "cold").

What I'll caution is that if you approach vp with the intent to
maximize what it can offer, related stresses ultimately pose a
formidable challenge to the player from time to time. For that reason
I suggest that a truly successful player will be one who is keenly
focussed on those variables that most strongly impact play outcome,
and reduces distraction posed by other elements lying on the periphery.

Another consideration is that if you employ a session timing method
that cuts some sessions/trips short, you may penalize yourself in the
bonuses, etc. that are offered for play. While not true of all, some
casinos value a consistent level of play trip to trip and place a
premium on it.

···

------

As a sidenote, you separately touch on "Fortune's Formula". In
digesting the content of that and similar books that touch on gaming
theory, take particular care to identify what elements are directly
applicable to video poker -- something which has very distinct
attributes that separate it from many other types of gambling and/or
speculative ventures.

VP isn't a multi-player situation, so most aspects of gaming theory
aren't applicable. The wager increments are so large ($1.25, $2.50,
$5, etc.) that Kelly betting is largely a moot subject. Within the
mechanics of the gaming equipment itself, short of an actual
malfunction there aren't any inefficiencies or statistical aberrations
of which an astute player can take advantage (the same isn't true when
it comes to the casino, promotions, et al).

What I'll offer up is that the mechanics of video poker are so
simplistic relative to most any other gambling game that a primer on
the essentials could be contained in a modest pamphlet. (Mind you,
you can always expand that into an encyclopedia, should you desire to
hold someone's hand from beginning to end -- and Jean Scott pretty
much did just that in her Frugal VP guide.)

The best advice I can offer is that you sift through those basics (all
of which are presented in this forum in one manner or another, at one
time or another) and ascertain through experience what works and what
doesn't for you -- then conduct your play as it suits you and don't
worry about what anyone else thinks.

- Harry

#10

As Harry and others have covered this topic extremely well let me
discuss a side issue. The human mind is a terrific pattern recognition
machine. Too good at times. In VP one sees patterns emerge that look
like they can be utilized to improve results. However, since these
patterns are simply random fluctuations there is really nothing there.
Many a gambler has gone broke attempting to take advantage of these
random events.

Why is that relevant? Anyone who approaches VP thinking there MUST be a
way to beat it are prone to this trap. As mentioned many times before,
a mathematical approach is the ONLY way to beat VP.

Dick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:

Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments. Would you
folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly strange
intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as dealt
4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to one
or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing straight
through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose and I
can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time. Denny

#11

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Harry Porter" <harry.porter@...>
wrote:

denflo60 wrote:
> Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments. Would

you

> folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly

strange

> intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as

dealt

> 4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to

one

> or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing

straight

> through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose and

I

> can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
> time. Denny

Timing of play, by itself, has no impact one way or the other.

There

are many other things various players are inclined to do that also
have no impact (e.g. changing machines when the current one

goes "cold").

What I'll caution is that if you approach vp with the intent to
maximize what it can offer, related stresses ultimately pose a
formidable challenge to the player from time to time. For that

reason

I suggest that a truly successful player will be one who is keenly
focussed on those variables that most strongly impact play outcome,
and reduces distraction posed by other elements lying on the

periphery.

Another consideration is that if you employ a session timing method
that cuts some sessions/trips short, you may penalize yourself in

the

bonuses, etc. that are offered for play. While not true of all,

some

casinos value a consistent level of play trip to trip and place a
premium on it.

------

As a sidenote, you separately touch on "Fortune's Formula". In
digesting the content of that and similar books that touch on gaming
theory, take particular care to identify what elements are directly
applicable to video poker -- something which has very distinct
attributes that separate it from many other types of gambling and/or
speculative ventures.

VP isn't a multi-player situation, so most aspects of gaming theory
aren't applicable. The wager increments are so large ($1.25, $2.50,
$5, etc.) that Kelly betting is largely a moot subject. Within the
mechanics of the gaming equipment itself, short of an actual
malfunction there aren't any inefficiencies or statistical

aberrations

of which an astute player can take advantage (the same isn't true

when

it comes to the casino, promotions, et al).

What I'll offer up is that the mechanics of video poker are so
simplistic relative to most any other gambling game that a primer on
the essentials could be contained in a modest pamphlet. (Mind you,
you can always expand that into an encyclopedia, should you desire

to

hold someone's hand from beginning to end -- and Jean Scott pretty
much did just that in her Frugal VP guide.)

The best advice I can offer is that you sift through those basics

(all

of which are presented in this forum in one manner or another, at

one

time or another) and ascertain through experience what works and

what

doesn't for you -- then conduct your play as it suits you and don't
worry about what anyone else thinks.

Harry: There is always some wisdom in what you say and as I have
mentioned in the past your comments are particularly valued by me.
Just a couple general remarks. I am beginning to recognize that game
theory is/are people singular or plural vs other people. (I am trying
to read some on this). However. what started as a study in the
1920's on one topic has expanded in scope over the years to cover
many others from anthropology to biology to macr economics. In my
own mind, correct or not, I see a video poker machine as an
individually who happens to act completely randomly.

With the money I have already put through video poker machines
winning or losing 6 figures over one trip, I now am surprisingly very
calm when I play my $1 100 way Jacks or better. The folks at Wynn's
will attest to that. I totally agree the Casino favors folks with
consistent play. I know what I have to play for my suite to be
RFB'd. That is what I play except for two times; one when I wanted
to make sure I ended the year in a fairly positive overall manner and
secodly when my accountant told me to play as a Corporation with a
tax EIN number and the Casino wouldn't let me play that way.

I appreciate everyone's input and value it, but decision making is my
own. This has been true when as a high school junior I skipped
school because of peer pressure for senior skip day and the nuns
wouldn't let me run for school president the following year. I told
myself then that I would never let peer pressure cloud my judgment.
That event, surprisingly had a greater impact on my life than any
other and I followed the same philosophy during my long work
career. With some exceptions, this philosophy has served me well and
I'm too old to change it now.

When I try something new now its only if I think I have the time and
stamina to see it through. You either do something all the way,
observe, read study, practice taking advantage of all resources
available, or you don't do it at all. My wife will vouch for that
statement as she has thought I'm a bit crazy after 42 years of
marriage. I've been told I'm crazy from everyone from the President
of a huge company to the leadership of one of the largest unions in
this country.

Finally, you'd probably be a fun guy to break bread with. If we're
ever in Vegas together I be pleased to have you join me or you and
your significant other join me/us for dinner at Restaurant Alex at
Wynn compliments of me. Thanks again. Denny

···

- Harry

#12

I think the need to check this tendency to see patterns where they
don't exist can be extrapolated into other areas of life, too. I used
to play a lot of tennis. "Playing my best" was very pleasing, but
then not playing up to that level was very frustrating. It never
occurred to me that there was a lot of probability in whether my shots
went where I wanted them to go or not and that both "playing well" and
"playing poorly" were illusions. My real skill level, which was
somewhere between the two, was the "expected value" of my play. A
golfer was telling me that he played well in a certain round and got a
good score. I told him it sounded like he was lucky in that round,
but he insisted that he had played well. I should have asked him why
he doesn't play that well every time if he likes it that much.

And, as far as chasing "rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time" goes, that seems inconsistent. If you'll end your session based
on irrelevant factors, why not also change your strategy for the same
reasons? Why play "right" in your strategy but "wrong" in the
duration of your session? Maybe, if, say, straight draws haven't been
getting there, you should stop drawing to them (or draw to them even
more, or whatever) for the same reason that you'd quit playing because
you had just hit a jackpot.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:

Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments. Would you
folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly strange
intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as dealt
4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to one
or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing straight
through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose and I
can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time. Denny

As Harry and others have covered this topic extremely well let me
discuss a side issue. The human mind is a terrific pattern recognition
machine. Too good at times. In VP one sees patterns emerge that look
like they can be utilized to improve results. However, since these
patterns are simply random fluctuations there is really nothing there.
Many a gambler has gone broke attempting to take advantage of these
random events.

Why is that relevant? Anyone who approaches VP thinking there MUST be a
way to beat it are prone to this trap. As mentioned many times before,
a mathematical approach is the ONLY way to beat VP.

Dick

#13

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <thomasrrobertson@...>
wrote:

>> Harry : I thank you and Tom previously for your comments.

Would you

>> folks then agree that starting and stopping play at seemingly

strange

>> intervals,for example after a big win in a 100 pay game such as

dealt

>> 4 of a kind, straight flush or even a full house plus drawing to

one

>> or two Royals,have no averse effect on play,versus playing

straight

>> through for several hours. If so then I have nothing to lose

and I

>> can continue to chase rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
>> time. Denny
>
>As Harry and others have covered this topic extremely well let me
>discuss a side issue. The human mind is a terrific pattern

recognition

>machine. Too good at times. In VP one sees patterns emerge that

look

>like they can be utilized to improve results. However, since these
>patterns are simply random fluctuations there is really nothing

there.

Tom just a quick comment. The patterns I see are not based on what
my mind thinks, They are from actual data I have taken while playing
thousands of hands on the Dancer Win Poker. I recognize his random
number generator is different than the one used by IGT but random is
random. Denny

>Many a gambler has gone broke attempting to take advantage of

these

>random events.
>
>Why is that relevant? Anyone who approaches VP thinking there MUST

be a

>way to beat it are prone to this trap. As mentioned many times

before,

>a mathematical approach is the ONLY way to beat VP.
>
>Dick

I think the need to check this tendency to see patterns where they
don't exist can be extrapolated into other areas of life, too. I

used

to play a lot of tennis. "Playing my best" was very pleasing, but
then not playing up to that level was very frustrating. It never
occurred to me that there was a lot of probability in whether my

shots

went where I wanted them to go or not and that both "playing well"

and

"playing poorly" were illusions. My real skill level, which was
somewhere between the two, was the "expected value" of my play. A
golfer was telling me that he played well in a certain round and

got a

good score. I told him it sounded like he was lucky in that round,
but he insisted that he had played well. I should have asked him

why

he doesn't play that well every time if he likes it that much.

And, as far as chasing "rainbows and tilting windmills at the same
time" goes, that seems inconsistent. If you'll end your session

based

on irrelevant factors, why not also change your strategy for the

same

reasons? Why play "right" in your strategy but "wrong" in the
duration of your session? Maybe, if, say, straight draws haven't

been

getting there, you should stop drawing to them (or draw to them even
more, or whatever) for the same reason that you'd quit playing

because

···

>--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@> wrote:
you had just hit a jackpot.

#14

Tom just a quick comment. The patterns I see are not based on what
my mind thinks, They are from actual data I have taken while playing
thousands of hands on the Dancer Win Poker. I recognize his random
number generator is different than the one used by IGT but random is
random. Denny

From Webster:

Main Entry: random
Function: adjective
1 a : lacking a definite plan, purpose, or pattern

Basing anything on patterns found in random events is exactly the trap
I mentioned. By definition (see above) there is no TRUE pattern to
random events.

You should also know ... random is NOT random. There are degrees of
randomness.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:
Date: 1565

#15

"Thousands of hands" is little more than statistical noise.

···

On 01 Apr 2007 10:05:11 -0700, denflo60 <dennis.florence@worldnet.att.net> wrote:

Tom just a quick comment. The patterns I see are not based on what
my mind thinks, They are from actual data I have taken while playing
thousands of hands on the Dancer Win Poker.

#16

mroejacks wrote:

You should also know ... random is NOT random. There are degrees of
randomness.

Something strikes me as inherently Orwellian here (ala "Animal Farm":
ALL ANIMALS ARE EQUAL, BUT SOME ARE MORE EQUAL THAN OTHERS :wink:

- H.

#17

> Tom just a quick comment. The patterns I see are not based on what
> my mind thinks, They are from actual data I have taken while

playing

> thousands of hands on the Dancer Win Poker.

"Thousands of hands" is little more than statistical noise.

King Fish: In one forum when I sayed tens of thousands of hands, one
responder said the cycles happened in a much shorter time. So I reduce
the number here to mere thousands and you tell me I didn't play enough
hands to see cyclicality. Can't please all people all of the time I
guess. Denny

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "King Fish" <vpkingfish@...> wrote:

On 01 Apr 2007 10:05:11 -0700, denflo60 > <dennis.florence@...> wrote:

#18

This is usually referred to as "small number statistics". One must accrue millions, if not 10's
of millions of "experiments" to approach meaningful probabilities in VP.

(As usual, this is just an expression of my opinion, but one hat is based upon some level of
understanding...some of it gained from reading thoughtful articles in this group)

.....bl

···

On 01 Apr 2007 10:05:11 -0700, denflo60 > <dennis.florence@...> wrote:

They are from actual data I have taken while playing

> thousands of hands on the Dancer Win Poker.

#19

The "cycles" being referred to there are those formed in a person's mind, caused by the
human brain's attempts at seeing "cycles" and "correlations" in the world around us. That is
how most human senses work.

If one looks to the mathematics, the "cycles" apparently seen in VP really do not exist and I
again repeat my thoughts that one must accrue millions or 10's of millons of experiments
before one gets out of the realm of "small number statistics".

.....bl

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:

King Fish: In one forum when I sayed tens of thousands of hands, one
responder said the cycles happened in a much shorter time. So I reduce
the number here to mere thousands and you tell me I didn't play enough
hands to see cyclicality. Can't please all people all of the time I
guess. Denny

#20

denflo60 wrote:

King Fish: In one forum when I sayed tens of thousands of hands, one
responder said the cycles happened in a much shorter time. So I
reduce the number here to mere thousands and you tell me I didn't play
enough hands to see cyclicality. Can't please all people all of the
time I guess. Denny

I'd presume you'd be out to please yourself ... and to gain the
understanding from which to have your own firm conviction of how many
hands need to be examined to find what you're looking for.

As far as the latter goes, I'd suggest that "vp cyclicality", as
suggested by the manner in which you refer to it, doesn't exist.

- H.