Lawrence Boxer wrote:
>>In practice, short term play can deviate quite a bit from
being Normal (or "Gaussian"), and a slightly lager short term
bankroll is recommended.<<
The above is the most important point of "short term" play, but imho the
concluding statement is incorrect. There are NO bankroll requirements for
short term play. That is, due to the extreme role of variance and the
closed-ended nature of play, no minimum bankroll will guarantee anything
approaching success. Even with perfect play, a bankroll of $1700 can as
easily be lost as a bankroll of $400 could result in a major win. That is
the nature of variance in the short term.
I'm positive that no one was suggesting any sort of a guarantee. Rather, I believe the suggested long-term 'bankroll' as well as the short-term 'trip stake' are merely the amounts necessary to _statistically_ carry you through the characteristic dips associated with a game's variance. That is, if you want to know how much of a 'stake' you will need to have a 95% chance of not having to sit there 'busted' for a part of the afternoon while your friends continue to play, you calculate your risk of ruin for the game you intend to play and it suggests the necessary bankroll. I think we all realize that you could certainly lose a thousand consecutive hands, or that you can start with your first bet and never drop below that. But it's nice to have an idea of how much you will need to play a particular game for the duration (the length of your planned visit). That way, you will know whether to play dollars, quarters, or nickels ... and God forbid, even play short-coin as opposed to just taking a nap in the car waiting for your friends.
My point is, don't feel as
though you must strain financially in order to meet a minimum bankroll
requirement. Bet what you can afford to lose, play for highest EV, and
hope for a fortunate outcome.
I basically agree with that, but with a qualifier. Play for the highest EV that you can afford and know how to play; this is based on the assumption that you are there gambling for fun as opposed to trying to make it into an investment. Two weeks ago I went through nearly all of my 'stake' playing full-coin JOB 9/6 (yes, I have seen the light and play full-coin now, and took more money than usual in anticipation of that). However, I hit a long dry spell and no quads for quite some time, and got down to my last twenty of my stake. My wife and kids weren't ready to leave yet; they were actually having some luck playing table games, so I switched to short-coin and that twenty then lasted me the rest of the day.
By the way, Larry, are you the Larry Boxer who I knew from another group a couple of years ago, or is my mind playing tricks on me and I just remember you from these VP groups?
Cheers.
Bill Velek