There's been a number of postings in the past couple of months of
some players having bad runs at making four of a kind in various
games. All of which has heightened my sense of smell. I played
blackjack professionally (and baccarat before they elimiated the
profitable side bet) in Nevada in 1962 (prior to publication of Ed
Thorp's book) and 1963 but quit becase the cheating, especially for
someone who'd made the casino mugbook, became too rampant-- and don't
waste your time with the Gaming Control Board -- I speak from
personal experience and if you think things may have changed in 40
years then ask yourself if politicans still take graft.
Ok, now to the current status. I play, among other video poker
games, All American -- I play it well (99.9% or better, although
only at about 400 to 500 per hour as there's just so much to watch
for). I'm guessing I've played 33,000 to 35,000 hands since
I "mastered" this game, with over 28,000 hands for
sure this year. Did well at first but a noticeable and unsettling
trend has set in. In the last 7203 hands I've hit quads only five
times and all five of these by drawing to a pair.
Question Number One: What's the probability of making only five
quads in 7203 hands? With a cycle of 444.1 for quads my rusty math
comes out to .0838 % (less than 1 tenth on 1%) -- hope someone can
verify this.
Question Number Two: Within that same 7203 hands what is the
probability of not converting any trips to quads? I make the
probability of having a "drawable" three of kind on the flop at 1 in
47.3295. 7203 hands gives just over 152 "cycles" for a drawable
three of a kind. Probabiltiy of not converting trips to
quads: .1336%. Can anyone verify?
Here's more fuel for the fire: At the same casino I've played 22,845
hands of FPDW this year. Caught the deuces twice, once by holding
one and snagging the other three and once by converting a pair to
quads -- but not by holding three and catching the fourth.
Question Number Three: Would you play in this casino?
Wait, there's more: I've seen and heard of other players holding
three deuces and catching the fourth so...
Question Number Four: What would happen if I played in this casino
but did not use my slot card (other than loosing perks)? Or, even
better, are there any players out there who've tried this, and, if
so, with what results?
I'm getting a strange feeling (call it Occam's razor if you prefer)
that I'm coming up against Frank Garcia's fourth test. (Marked Cards
and Loaded Dice by Frank Garcia, Prentice-Hall, 1962, page 200).
Quadbuster
Question Number One: What's the probability of making only five
quads in 7203 hands? With a cycle of 444.1 for quads my rusty math
comes out to .0838 % (less than 1 tenth on 1%) -- hope someone can
verify this.
i get the same number
Question Number Three: Would you play in this casino?
i certainly wouldn't play that machine and probably not ones just like
it and probably wouldn't play at that casino and probably wouldn't
play at any sister casinos (owned/managed by same company)
in nevada i believe you can anonymously report a machine to the gaming
commission and i would do just that (giving them machine number and
data collected but nothing that would allow them to trace it back to
you)
i would also post the casino and machine number here
maybe other people have had the same trouble, maybe other people might
like to know which machines to shy away from
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "zzyzxvault" <zzyzx@c...> wrote:
That really isn't all that unlikely. A little worse than a 1 in 1000
event. Stuff like that is going to happen if you play a lot of VP.
I've had similar bad luck, and I've also hit 3 quads in 4 hands.
There's been a number of postings in the past couple of months of
some players having bad runs at making four of a kind in various
games. All of which has heightened my sense of smell. I played
blackjack professionally (and baccarat before they elimiated the
profitable side bet) in Nevada in 1962 (prior to publication of Ed
Thorp's book) and 1963 but quit becase the cheating, especially for
someone who'd made the casino mugbook, became too rampant-- and
don't
waste your time with the Gaming Control Board -- I speak from
personal experience and if you think things may have changed in 40
years then ask yourself if politicans still take graft.
Ok, now to the current status. I play, among other video poker
games, All American -- I play it well (99.9% or better, although
only at about 400 to 500 per hour as there's just so much to watch
for). I'm guessing I've played 33,000 to 35,000 hands since
I "mastered" this game, with over 28,000 hands for
sure this year. Did well at first but a noticeable and unsettling
trend has set in. In the last 7203 hands I've hit quads only five
times and all five of these by drawing to a pair.
Question Number One: What's the probability of making only five
quads in 7203 hands? With a cycle of 444.1 for quads my rusty math
comes out to .0838 % (less than 1 tenth on 1%) -- hope someone can
verify this.
Question Number Two: Within that same 7203 hands what is the
probability of not converting any trips to quads? I make the
probability of having a "drawable" three of kind on the flop at 1
in
47.3295. 7203 hands gives just over 152 "cycles" for a drawable
three of a kind. Probabiltiy of not converting trips to
quads: .1336%. Can anyone verify?
Here's more fuel for the fire: At the same casino I've played
22,845
hands of FPDW this year. Caught the deuces twice, once by holding
one and snagging the other three and once by converting a pair to
quads -- but not by holding three and catching the fourth.
Question Number Three: Would you play in this casino?
Wait, there's more: I've seen and heard of other players holding
three deuces and catching the fourth so...
Question Number Four: What would happen if I played in this casino
but did not use my slot card (other than loosing perks)? Or, even
better, are there any players out there who've tried this, and, if
so, with what results?
I'm getting a strange feeling (call it Occam's razor if you prefer)
that I'm coming up against Frank Garcia's fourth test. (Marked
Cards
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "zzyzxvault" <zzyzx@c...> wrote:
and Loaded Dice by Frank Garcia, Prentice-Hall, 1962, page 200).
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "billkennedy3" <billkennedy3@y...>
wrote:
That really isn't all that unlikely. A little worse than a 1 in
1000
event. Stuff like that is going to happen if you play a lot of
VP.
I've had similar bad luck, and I've also hit 3 quads in 4 hands.
In the last 7203 hands I've hit quads only five
> times and all five of these by drawing to a pair.
I agree that this isn't necessarily indicative of a cheating machine
at all, it's just one of those bad streaks that casino players will
experience. I can remember playing a long 10 hour session of 9/6 JOB
several years ago at a casino in Biloxi, and getting exactly 1 quad
all day (and no str. flushes or Royals). This means that I got one
quad out of about 6000 hands. Yes, I had a terrible day that day,
but I have no reason to suspect cheating. For one thing, I moved
around to several different machines that day - it wasn't all just on
one machine. For another thing, these were all normal IGT machines.
Finally, my lifetime results from this casino have been reasonable.
I was just at the far negative end of the bell curve that day.
EE
"I agree that this isn't necessarily indicative of a cheating
machine at all, it's just one of those bad streaks that casino
players will experience. I can remember playing a long 10 hour
session of 9/6 JOB several years ago at a casino in Biloxi, and
getting exactly 1 quad all day (and no str. flushes or Royals).
This means that I got one quad out of about 6000 hands. Yes, I had
a terrible day that day, but I have no reason to suspect cheating.
For one thing, I moved around to several different machines that
day - it wasn't all just on one machine. For another thing, these
were all normal IGT machines. Finally, my lifetime results from this
casino have been reasonable. I was just at the far negative end of
the bell curve that day.
EE"
Didn't Zaroff make a post about how this was impossible or
something?
Second, question to EE, how much did you lose or, what was your
return for that day? I'm curious.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "eecounter" <eecounter@h...> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
> In the last 7203 hands I've hit quads only five
> > times and all five of these by drawing to a pair.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I have been practicing BP with WinPoker for a couple of hours per day
and since this thread started, I have been keeping track of dealt
trips. I have been dealt 45 trips, and NONE have resulted in quads.
I have had a few quads, but every one of them came when I was dealt a
pair.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "fordscks" <jason_c_vp@y...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "eecounter" <eecounter@h...> wrote:
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
>
> > In the last 7203 hands I've hit quads only five
> > > times and all five of these by drawing to a pair.
> >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>"I agree that this isn't necessarily indicative of a cheating
machine at all, it's just one of those bad streaks that casino
players will experience. I can remember playing a long 10 hour
session of 9/6 JOB several years ago at a casino in Biloxi, and
getting exactly 1 quad all day (and no str. flushes or Royals).
This means that I got one quad out of about 6000 hands. Yes, I had
a terrible day that day, but I have no reason to suspect cheating.
For one thing, I moved around to several different machines that
day - it wasn't all just on one machine. For another thing, these
were all normal IGT machines. Finally, my lifetime results from this
casino have been reasonable. I was just at the far negative end of
the bell curve that day.EE"
Didn't Zaroff make a post about how this was impossible or
something?Second, question to EE, how much did you lose or, what was your
return for that day? I'm curious.
This occured several years ago, so my memory is kind of fuzzy, but as
I recall I lost about $500 on the day playing single line quarter
machines (not counting cash back). If we assume 600 hands per hour
for 10 hours, this means my loss rate was $500 / (6000 x $1.25) =
6.67%. This is just about what one would expect - maybe even a bit
better - given the lack of big hits.
EE
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "fordscks" <jason_c_vp@y...> wrote:
Second, question to EE, how much did you lose or, what was your
return for that day? I'm curious.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
that is the problem with small samples, the odds of getting a quad
from dealt trips is 1 in 23.5, so after getting dealt 47 trips you
would think you would get quads 2 times, but in reality you could
easily get it 2 out of 3 times or 0 out of 99 times, that is the
volitility/luck factor of the games and why some who play terrible can
win while others who play nearly perfect can lose.
hope you get a dealt royal
Jim
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jkw98038" <jkw98038@y...> wrote:
I have been practicing BP with WinPoker for a couple of hours per day
and since this thread started, I have been keeping track of dealt
trips. I have been dealt 45 trips, and NONE have resulted in quads.
I have had a few quads, but every one of them came when I was dealt a
pair.