From: Dan <vptimes@lvcm.com>
"Even in a very short session, a higher ER translates to a higher probability of coming away a winner."
Let's all agree on that!
Proper "bankroll" in "short-term" play -- How do you do that?
"Even in a very short session, a higher ER translates to a higher
probability of coming away a winner."
Let's all agree on that!
No Rob, with all due respect, let's not. The second part of the above
statement from the same poster was more applicable. It said, "In a short
session, however, variance becomes the dominant factor."
Short term results are almost entirely determined by variance and are
unpredictable. ER has little or no relevence in the short term.
The salient question is: can you predict results with any accuracy either
long term or short term? The answer is in the short term no, in the long
term yes.
I believe that both statements are completely accurate. The higher E.V. machine has a higher probability of providing a winner, and the variance is the dominant factor.
i.e. In a short term session you have to get lucky.
The salient question is: can you predict results with any accuracy either
long term or short term? The answer is in the short term no, in the long
term yes.
but the likliehood of winning is still greater on the higher E.V. machine .
Regards
A.P.
···
----- Original Message -----
From: Lawrence Boxer
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, April 26, 2003 2:47 AM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Proper "bankroll" in "short-term" play -- How do you do that?
>
> "Even in a very short session, a higher ER translates to a higher
probability of coming away a winner."
>
> Let's all agree on that!
No Rob, with all due respect, let's not. The second part of the above
statement from the same poster was more applicable. It said, "In a short
session, however, variance becomes the dominant factor."
Short term results are almost entirely determined by variance and are
unpredictable. ER has little or no relevence in the short term.
The salient question is: can you predict results with any accuracy either
long term or short term? The answer is in the short term no, in the long
term yes.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
I believe that both statements are completely accurate. The higher E.V.
machine has a higher probability of providing a winner, and the variance is
the dominant factor.
i.e. In a short term session you have to get lucky.
I'm going to back off ever so slightly on my previous answer, which in
retrospect was too adamant. I don't think there's any question that in
short term play variance dictates results to a huge degree, and can't be
depended on as a predicator of outcome. BUT since ER is figured on a per
hand basis (not accounting for long or short term) it makes absolute sense
to determine holds according to the highest ER. Even so, there are no
realistic expectations in short term play.