Progressives

[pumpkin1034]

I can see the advantage of playing a FPVP progressive. That's gravy.

I don't see the advantage of playing a progressive, say 9/6 DB. Even
if the RF rises high enough to make it positive, is it really a
positive game? When that happens, the bank usually fills up and it is
a race. In the meantime one is giving up 5 coins on every FH and FL.
If you don't hit the RF, you have been playing a volatile game at a
big disadvantage.

You can play a positive volatile game like DDJ and if you keep playing
through the swings, you can eventually get ahead if you hit the bigger
payoffs, but when the player next to you hits the progressive, give it
up.

So, is playing a short play progressive when its positive just taking
a shot? Am I missing something?

[Tom_Robertson1]

I can see the advantage of playing a FPVP progressive. That's gravy.

I don't see the advantage of playing a progressive, say 9/6 DB. Even
if the RF rises high enough to make it positive, is it really a
positive game? When that happens, the bank usually fills up and it is
a race. In the meantime one is giving up 5 coins on every FH and FL.
If you don't hit the RF, you have been playing a volatile game at a
big disadvantage.

You can play a positive volatile game like DDJ and if you keep playing
through the swings, you can eventually get ahead if you hit the bigger
payoffs, but when the player next to you hits the progressive, give it
up.

So, is playing a short play progressive when its positive just taking
a shot? Am I missing something?

Yes. You're applying a principle inconsistently. You could just as
easily think of a positive game like DDJ as a negative game by
stipulating that you don't hit a royal. A short pay progressive is
more volatile and your opportunity to play at a positive value is
limited by the jackpot being hit resetting the meter, but it's only a
difference of degree.

[Harry_Porter]

pumpkin1034 wrote:

> I can see the advantage of playing a FPVP progressive. That's
> gravy.
>
> I don't see the advantage of playing a progressive, say 9/6 DB.
> Even if the RF rises high enough to make it positive, is it really
> a positive game? When that happens, the bank usually fills up and
> it is a race. In the meantime one is giving up 5 coins on every
> FH and FL.
> If you don't hit the RF, you have been playing a volatile game at
> a big disadvantage ...
>
> So, is playing a short play progressive when its positive just
> taking a shot? Am I missing something?

Tom Robertson wrote:

Yes. You're applying a principle inconsistently. You could just as
easily think of a positive game like DDJ as a negative game by
stipulating that you don't hit a royal. A short pay progressive is
more volatile and your opportunity to play at a positive value is
limited by the jackpot being hit resetting the meter, but it's only
a difference of degree.

Technically, Tom is correct. But pumpkin is expressing gut level
concerns that are very valid considerations in weighing a progressive
opportunity.

In plain words, the same factors that might make 10/7 DB w/ .25% cb
attractive to a given player may very well make a progressive with
100.42% ER a foolish proposition.

Variance is one factor, since obviously a game with subpar ER at reset
is going to have a high variance at an attractive meter.
Economically, the greater of portion of your bankroll required by game
risk the higher ER that you should demand in playing it.

Opportunity is another factor. If the meter at which you're playing
the progressive is one that is reached with a decent frequency (say,
once every couple of weeks or more), then the risk that someone will
hit it before you is of limited concern since you expect future
opportunity at it -- provided that the play presents a risk reasonably
comparable to the balance of your play (in other words, you aren't
overstretching your bankroll to play it).

However, if the game involved has a low reset ER and it requires a
meter that's reached very infrequently, then it's a limited
opportunity -- and if we're talking about it being of considerably
greater risk to the player, then it very much takes on the form of
being a "pot shot". Any losses incurred in failing to hit the jackpot
aren't going to represent a short-term impairment to your bankroll;
it's a hard hit that should be considered permanent -- other play
isn't on comparable terms so that it can't reasonably be expected to
compensate for this hit.

Tom's accurate is saying that these factors are a "matter of degree".
But the extent of that degree are sizable enough to warrant pumpkin's
perspective, to a "degreee" ;).

···

-------------

By way of example, I once watched a progressive with a reset ER of 98%
advance for weeks, going into months. Normally it's hit at or before
around a B/E level after 2 or 3 weeks. After it entered positive
territory, I watched in fascination but wasn't attracted to it. Once
hit, it wouldn't likely return to this level for a matter of many
months, and possibly a couple of years or more. The risk relative to
my bankroll, given the denomination, made it unlikely I'd offset any
losses via comparable plays in the medium term and that loss would be
significant if I didn't hit (assuming that I entered into the play
with a reasonable loss allocation).

The play pretty much staying off the radar of skilled players and yet
received an incredible amount of short-coin play; the meter continued
to rise until it presented a 4% ER. (I never had the nerve to ask one
of the short-coin players if they thought they were playing for the
progressive; I guarantee there were several short-coin royals hit in
the course of this meter rise).

I bit the bullet with a very definite pot shot. I can't say that I
jumped in with both feet, but definitely risked the bankroll
equivalent of 5 toes and a respectable number of metatarsals. You
likely guessed that the venture was successful. It's one of my most
satisfying wins to date.

- Harry

[Chandler1]

Maybe you're missing something and maybe not. Yes, chasing a prog is a
"race" in the sense that you want to get in as many hands while the
opportunity is present. Yes, playing a prog is taking a shot in the sense
that there is a good chance you will not be the one to hit it in your
session. OTOH, If you play enough hands at progressive opportunities over
time EV works its way out in the same fashion as non progressive
opportunities. The fact that more of game return is weighted towards the
less frequent RF means that it will be a longer and bumpier ride. Is it too
long and bumpy for you or me? Maybe.

When ever I consider playing options I take into account my goals and my
playing alternatives. My goals shift and I do not always have the
alternatives that I would like, but all things being equal, if I have a
choice between a prog opportunity at 100.7% and fpdw I am certainly going to
play the less volatile fpdw. If I am going to take on more risk I need to
be compensated with more reward, but others make different decisions. Some
might enjoy taking on more risk for the same reward or even less reward.
Some might have other value added goals that could trump ER/volatility as
well. Many may not have that fpdw alternative. Their only positive
opportunity might be a progressive.

Chandler

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com]On Behalf Of
pumpkin1034
Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2006 6:51 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Progressives

I can see the advantage of playing a FPVP progressive. That's gravy.

I don't see the advantage of playing a progressive, say 9/6 DB. Even
if the RF rises high enough to make it positive, is it really a
positive game? When that happens, the bank usually fills up and it is
a race. In the meantime one is giving up 5 coins on every FH and FL.
If you don't hit the RF, you have been playing a volatile game at a
big disadvantage.

You can play a positive volatile game like DDJ and if you keep playing
through the swings, you can eventually get ahead if you hit the bigger
payoffs, but when the player next to you hits the progressive, give it
up.

So, is playing a short play progressive when its positive just taking
a shot? Am I missing something?

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

[brucem]

I can see the advantage of playing a FPVP progressive. That's

gravy.

I don't see the advantage of playing a progressive, say 9/6 DB.

Even

if the RF rises high enough to make it positive, is it really a
positive game? When that happens, the bank usually fills up and it

is

a race. In the meantime one is giving up 5 coins on every FH and

FL.

If you don't hit the RF, you have been playing a volatile game at a
big disadvantage.

You can play a positive volatile game like DDJ and if you keep

playing

through the swings, you can eventually get ahead if you hit the

bigger

payoffs, but when the player next to you hits the progressive, give

it

up.

So, is playing a short play progressive when its positive just

taking

a shot? Am I missing something?

Tom and Harry are right on, but here's how I view progressives.
There are pluses and minuses. It depends on your situation.

Here are some minuses:

First, progressives are usually not positive. This turns off heavy
players. They look for positive games they can play for hours.

Second, as the progressive jackpots increase, so does the variance.
This also turns off heavy players.

Third, as the progressive increases, the "perfect" strategy changes,
in ways difficult to analyze. This turns off heavy players too, who
try to play perfectly.

Fourth, in some cases the progressive is tied only to very rare
hands, such as a Dealt RF or Reversible RF. Pros don't like that
either.

Fifth, most progressives tend to be lower denomination games. The
pros just aren't interested. But not everyone has this perspective.

Here are a few of the pluses:

First, suppose the casino in your locale has no positive VP? In that
case a progressive may be the only way to find a positive game.

Second, sometimes the return gets very high ... 103% or even higher.
This is much higher than the best fixed jackpot game. Should that be
ignored? Maybe yes, maybe no.

Third, some progressives have multiple progressives. The Rampart
Casino has a DDB game with 6 progressives. Sometimes it goes
positive, primarily due to the less rare quad hands. That is a good
playing opportunity, even if it doesn't last long.

So, as I said, it depends your situation. I would not dismiss
progressives because it seems like a fruitless chase. That is true
no matter what you play.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "pumpkin1034" <pumpkin1034@y...> wrote:

[Jean-Baptiste_Queru]

On the other hand, all else being equal (same location, same
denomination), I'll always play a progressive machine: play the best
machine. All else being equal, a progressive is just extra gravy.

E.g. at the Peppermill in Reno, you can play $2 9/6 JoB, or you can
play 10-coin $1 Prog 9/6 JoB, reset @$9400. You need to have some
pretty strong reasons to play the $2 variant (essentially, if you want
to play a bartop in the high-limit room vs. playing uprights or
slant-tops in the VP pit).

Like others said, progressive games have a higher variance than their
non-progressive counterparts, and playing them optimally requires a
good knowledge of strategy changes, which is especially hard on
machines that have multiple progressives.

JBQ

···

On 1/25/06, brumar_lv <brumar_lv@yahoo.com> wrote:
[...]