vpFREE2 Forums

Progressive Strategy

#1

The other day I was playing a progressive .25 9/6 JOB at my local casino. The royal was at $2,384. I was playing the basic JOB strategy.

When I got home, in the mail was Southern Gambling Magazine. It had an article by Linda Boyd about JOB. Linda said that when a progressive jackpot is high, you change your play and should hold 3 to the royal instead of a paying pair. I wasn't aware of this method until I read it.

This brings me to two questions.

1. Is this the correct play that Linda mentioned?

2. What other changes, if any, should one consider with a high royal progressive?

Thanks,

Kurt

#2

Was this a ten coin game or a five coin game? If it's ten coins, in my
opinion (don't take this as fact) there probably aren't that many strategy
changes. If it's a 5 coin game there would be quite a few changes.

Generally other strategy changes include holding a suited AT, and KT even in
penalty card situations. There are probably lots of others as well.
Eventually it just gets to the point where you hold a J if you have another
unsuited high card if the progressive is high enough. For example, in the
hand Js 3s 4d Th Ad, WinPoker reports that holding the jack only is a "minor
error" given your progressive and a 5 coin bet. The EV of AJ is 2.3716 and
the EV of J only is 2.3607. If the progressive got a little higher, holding
the J only would be the correct play.

A sample hand of Jd Jh Qh Kh 5c gives an EV of 12.5634 for holding the 3 to
a royal, and 7.6827 for holding the pair of jacks. It's not even close.

···

On Fri, Jul 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM, kingofkurtopia <kingofkurtopia@gmail.com>wrote:

The other day I was playing a progressive .25 9/6 JOB at my local casino.
The royal was at $2,384. I was playing the basic JOB strategy.

When I got home, in the mail was Southern Gambling Magazine. It had an
article by Linda Boyd about JOB. Linda said that when a progressive jackpot
is high, you change your play and should hold 3 to the royal instead of a
paying pair. I wasn't aware of this method until I read it.

This brings me to two questions.

1. Is this the correct play that Linda mentioned?

2. What other changes, if any, should one consider with a high royal
progressive?

Thanks,

Kurt

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#3

Just for fun I ran an analysis: the theoretical optimal payback is 102.80%.
If you use 9-6 Jacks or Better strategy without making ANY modifications,
the return drops to 102.33%.

···

On Fri, Jul 16, 2010 at 1:03 PM, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@gmail.com> wrote:

Was this a ten coin game or a five coin game? If it's ten coins, in my
opinion (don't take this as fact) there probably aren't that many strategy
changes. If it's a 5 coin game there would be quite a few changes.

Generally other strategy changes include holding a suited AT, and KT even
in penalty card situations. There are probably lots of others as well.
Eventually it just gets to the point where you hold a J if you have another
unsuited high card if the progressive is high enough. For example, in the
hand Js 3s 4d Th Ad, WinPoker reports that holding the jack only is a "minor
error" given your progressive and a 5 coin bet. The EV of AJ is 2.3716 and
the EV of J only is 2.3607. If the progressive got a little higher, holding
the J only would be the correct play.

A sample hand of Jd Jh Qh Kh 5c gives an EV of 12.5634 for holding the 3 to
a royal, and 7.6827 for holding the pair of jacks. It's not even close.

On Fri, Jul 16, 2010 at 10:31 AM, kingofkurtopia <kingofkurtopia@gmail.com > > wrote:

The other day I was playing a progressive .25 9/6 JOB at my local casino.
The royal was at $2,384. I was playing the basic JOB strategy.

When I got home, in the mail was Southern Gambling Magazine. It had an
article by Linda Boyd about JOB. Linda said that when a progressive jackpot
is high, you change your play and should hold 3 to the royal instead of a
paying pair. I wasn't aware of this method until I read it.

This brings me to two questions.

1. Is this the correct play that Linda mentioned?

2. What other changes, if any, should one consider with a high royal
progressive?

Thanks,

Kurt

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#4

Because the OP stated the then-current amount of the progressive meter as a dollar amount, not a number of coins.

···

On Fri, 16 Jul 2010, kelso 1600 wrote:

What difference does it make if it is ten coins or five coins?

#5

Using vp software I can easily determine the return of progressives when proper strategy modifications are used. I do not know how to determine a progressive's return if strategy modifications are not used. Is this a feature of VPW or Frugal I have overlooked?

Thanks,
Don

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@...> wrote:

Just for fun I ran an analysis: the theoretical optimal payback is 102.80%.
If you use 9-6 Jacks or Better strategy without making ANY modifications,
the return drops to 102.33%.

#6

If you think about it, whenever the EV is based on "dynamic" hand values such as progressive jackpots, then at some point, you will have to alter a "static" strategy.

For example, I'm looking at Jazbo's 8/5 JoB strategy cards (I also have his 8/6 JoB but no 9/6 JoB). The BEP is about 1,734 for 1 or a RF at $2,167 in quarters (royal cycle is now 32,601 hands). At 1,840 for 1 or a RF at $2,300 (royal cycle is 32,351), the game is 100.504% and you use a second strategy. At 2,060 for 1 or $2,575 (royal cycle is now 32,236), the game is 101.008% and there is a third strategy. At 2,222 for 1 or $2,778 (royal cycle is 31,919), the game returns 101.514% and you use the last strategy provided. While there isn't a lot of changes between the 4 strategies, 3-card royals and QTs, JTs did move up in the list, respectively.

Lastly, if you were hitting royals at $2,384 as opposed to $1,000, wouldn't you want to alter your strategy to maximize your well-being.

···

-- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kingofkurtopia" <kingofkurtopia@...> wrote:

The other day I was playing a progressive .25 9/6 JOB at my local casino. The royal was at $2,384. I was playing the basic JOB strategy.

#7

We used to chase progressives on Quarter and 50 cent machines quite often, although we seldom do so now. Here's something to consider:

Maximum EV requires strategy changes and this increases volatility. If you DON'T hit the RF your loss per hour will be greater than on the base game.

Strategy changes need to be learned and there are different jackpot values for the various changes. This brings up the questions:

1. How well do you know the changes?
2. How many hands-per-hour can you play accurately while making the adjustments? If you have to refer to a card often your rate of play will decrease quite a bit.
3. Playing fewer hands per hour reduces the chance that YOU will hit the RF at the bonus level before someone else. It also reduces your points earned, although at the Quarter and Half level the amount isn't much unless point multipliers are in play.

For us, the answer was usually to make either no changes in strategy or just a few simple ones. Although this resulted in a lower EV for the game it also allowed us to play more hands per hour, and with lower volatility. In our case this was the right decision. Everyone's situation is different.

Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com

#8

It was a five coin game. Thank you very much for the information that you and everyone else provided. I'm a casual player, maybe 5 hours each week at the casino. I play about 99% perfect, but get perplexed at some of the odd hands a bit but don't usually worry about it. Just trying to make the best of what's available when I do play. Thanks again

Kurt

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@...> wrote:

Was this a ten coin game or a five coin game?

#9

No. I wrote a program that does the following:

1. You give it 2 paytables, your "strategy" paytable and your "test"
paytable.
2. For each of the 52 choose 5 hands, you find the optimal hold for your
"strategy" paytable
3. You calculate the expected value for that hold on your "test" paytable.
4. You sum the expected values for all 52 choose 5 hands, and use that to
calculate your payback for using the "strategy" paytable's strategy on your
test paytable

If you've already written a calculation program, it's not very difficult to
modify it so it does this. The Wizard of Odds has some very excellent
resources on how to write a calculation program on his website, and even how
to optimize it, if you are so inclined. It's not very hard to do, but the
debugging can be fairly tedious.

It's a useful program, and it's especially useful for me because I only
really know 9/6 JoB and 10/6 and 9/6 DDB at a "playable" level and often
wonder how much I am giving up by using a 9/6 JoB strategy on, say, an 8/5
BP or 9/5 JoB, etc.

···

On Fri, Jul 16, 2010 at 3:01 PM, Don <don_boats@yahoo.com> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE%40yahoogroups.com>, Jason Pawloski
<jpawloski@...> wrote:
>
> Just for fun I ran an analysis: the theoretical optimal payback is
102.80%.
> If you use 9-6 Jacks or Better strategy without making ANY modifications,
> the return drops to 102.33%.

Using vp software I can easily determine the return of progressives when
proper strategy modifications are used. I do not know how to determine a
progressive's return if strategy modifications are not used. Is this a
feature of VPW or Frugal I have overlooked?

Thanks,
Don

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#10
#11

Nudge, Thanks for the detailed information. It may be a bit above my comprehension level to remember it all while playing, but it will certainly help.

Now, if I could only get rid of this royal virgin status that I've had since I started playing VP 5 years ago, I would feel much better!

Kurt

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nudge51" <nudge51@...> wrote:

I figure that if you are not interested in my chart, there may
be novice players who might benefit from this, so I am posting it.

#12

Kurt,

Don't worry, when the time is right, it'll happen. And you'll always remember
your first time!

Guru

Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you
can’t win. -Lazarus Long

In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice,
there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation
to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

···

________________________________

Now, if I could only get rid of this royal virgin status that I've had since I
started playing VP 5 years ago, I would feel much better!

Kurt

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

For most people - like non-anal ones :slight_smile: or those who play progressives a lot - learning a strategy for a progressive will be easiest if they do only a basic strategy that DOES NOT take into consideration penalty cards. And for someone who only plays progressives occasionally, a chart that contains changes only at large-range points is best. Like for a quarter machine, learn the changes at 4500, 5000, 5500, etc.

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#14

A while ago someone on here always had posted links to a "VP pappy" article? I think? It was always so funny to read. The one that stands out the most is one time he was playing drunken deuces. Is he still around? Links? Is that even his name?

Thank you
Patrick

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#15

Correction:

<<For most people - like non-anal ones :slight_smile: or those who DO NOT play progressives a
lot - learning a strategy for a progressive will be easiest if they do only
a basic strategy that DOES NOT take into consideration penalty cards. >>

···

________________
Jean $�ott, Frugal Gambler
http://queenofcomps.com/
You can read my blog at
http://jscott.lvablog.com/

#16

He last posted on vpFREE on 23 June 2010, message #107769:

http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/107769

You can find other posts by searching the message archives
for "vppappy" on vpFREE and vpFREE_Detroit.

···

On 4 Aug 2010 at 16:07, patrick wrote:

A while ago someone on here always had posted links to
a "VP pappy" article? I think? It was always so funny to read.
The one that stands out the most is one time he was playing
drunken deuces. Is he still around? Links? Is that even his name?

#17

It is easy to do this with just a calculator. On 9/6 when the royal flush is 800 per unit, VPW tells you that with perfect play the royal flush is contributing 1.98% to the return and the odds of a royal flush are 1 in 40,390.55. If you want to be exact, the odds of getting a royal flush are 493512264 in 19933230517200. Multiply this by the per coin payout of 800, and you'll get 0.01980661 rounded to 8 decimal places (or 1.980661%). It is on the Wizard of Odds website:
http://wizardofodds.com/videopoker/tables/jacksorbetter.html

Using a progressive strategy increases the odds of a royal flush because there are more situations where going for the royal flush is the better play. But if you are playing non-progressive optimal strategy, the odds of getting a royal flush will stay the same regardless of jackpot level. The only thing that changes is your payout if you get the royal flush. So all you have to do is take the percentage increase in the payout, multiply it by 1.98%, and add it to the normal expected return.

For example, on a dollar machine, if the royal flush pays $5,000, you're getting an extra 25%. Multiply 1.980661% x 0.25, and you're getting an extra 0.495165%. Add that to the normal return of 99.543904% and that gives you 100.039069% - or basically from 99.54% to 100.04%. In this case optimal strategy gives you about 100.07%, only 0.03% more.

You might notice that as the progressive jackpot increases, the added benefit of modifying your strategy also increases. At lower levels the discrepancy is minimal because there are fewer strategy changes. But as the jackpot increases, you get more and more situations where you need to modify your strategy, and by using a non-progressive strategy you miss out on more and more opportunities to increase your return.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Don" <don_boats@...> wrote:

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@> wrote:
>
> Just for fun I ran an analysis: the theoretical optimal payback is 102.80%.
> If you use 9-6 Jacks or Better strategy without making ANY modifications,
> the return drops to 102.33%.

Using vp software I can easily determine the return of progressives when proper strategy modifications are used. I do not know how to determine a progressive's return if strategy modifications are not used. Is this a feature of VPW or Frugal I have overlooked?

Thanks,
Don