vpFREE2 Forums

Progressive Play Disclaimer

#1

A very nice and obviously concerned vpFREE poster emailed me yesterday, worried after she read a post by another couple about their impending trip to Vegas to play the M progressive, that the risk factor hasn't been discussed enough.

Here's the skinny: math says that roughly 62% of all the people that play a progressive will hit at least 1 Royal in a single cycle, and at M this almost undoubtedly means making money. But what about the other 38%.

The variance is very high on these games and playing them with insufficient bankroll is unwise. I favor a $20,000 BR for quarters which renders only about a 1 in 1000 chance of going through that bankroll without getting a Royal.

MOST that play these will do fine. Some will not. It's still gambling and there are very few sure things under a casino's roof.

A few weeks ago people were disputing the return of the games and I was so focused on this, perhaps I did not stress the variance enough.

Yes the variance is high. Yes the return is high, if you play when the JP is up. With enough BR and enough hands (1,000,000) the higher return more than makes up for the big swings.

Without enough BR and enough hands, Nancy Regan's advice on drugs might be applicable. Just say no.

Hope this satisfies your email and thank you for bringing it to my attention.

~FK

#2

$20k for QUARTERS?

These machines should last forever.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:> The variance is very high on these games and playing them with insufficient bankroll is unwise. I favor a $20,000 BR for quarters which renders only about a 1 in 1000 chance of going through that bankroll without getting a Royal.

#3

Sounds great, Bring $20K to Las Vegas so you can hopefully hit a $4000 Royal!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "rob.singer1111" <rob.singer1111@...> wrote:

$20k for QUARTERS?

These machines should last forever.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:> The variance is very high on these games and playing them with insufficient bankroll is unwise. I favor a $20,000 BR for quarters which renders only about a 1 in 1000 chance of going through that bankroll without getting a Royal.

#4

And how much of a bankroll would you want to play for a "normal" $1000 royal, say on 9-6 JoB or something like that? About 4 or 5 times the royal? And Frank DID mention something like a 1 in a 1000 risk of ruin. Sounds like Frank is a cautious man. Nothing wrong with that.

But don't let me stop you from putting a negative spin on it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "the7thwarrior" <Judy@...> wrote:

Sounds great, Bring $20K to Las Vegas so you can hopefully hit a $4000 Royal!

#5

Interesting question Bob.

I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game, you are expected to lose whatever you bring to the table. Using the same equations I did for the M progressive would put the BR requirement at infinite. Play enough, you lose, end of story.

I believe the reason Judy is having trouble understanding these numbers is because she hasn't crunched the numbers for the games she feels are safer. Let's do that now.

Using the Risk of Ruin formula in VPW for quarters, to have a 1 in 1000 RoR we need the following bankrolls for these four popular games:

FPDW = $17,620

5-7-T Dbl BoPo = $92,672

NSUD = Infinite

9/6 JoB = Infinite

Taken in context the $20,000 amount I stated as a BR requirement for M is very reasonable and only slightly more than what you are supposed to have to play quarter Full-Pay Deuces Wild.

My guess is that most people are playing everything with less than recommended bankroll and therefore take issue when a reasonable BR requirement is posted for an individual game without a frame of reference handy for comparison. If I had know that this was needed I would have posted it sooner. Sorry. I thought everyone was familiar with RoR calculations.

If you own a copy of VPW or OpVP, they both contain RoR calculations. I recommend running your game of choice though, and enter ".01" in the chance of ruin field, and then click on calculate BR requirement.

You'll find that $20,000 is not only reasonable it's on the low side.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@...> wrote: And how much of a bankroll would you want to play for a "normal" $1000 royal, say on 9-6 JoB or something like that? About 4 or 5 times the royal? And Frank DID mention something like a 1 in a 1000 risk of ruin. Sounds like Frank is a cautious man. Nothing wrong with that.

···

But don't let me stop you from putting a negative spin on it.

#6

Isn't 0.01% going to give you the 1 in 10,000 chance of going broke instead of 1 in 1000? I think you mean 0.1% which will give you a smaller bankroll requirement for FPDW, $13,215.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Interesting question Bob.

I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game, you are expected to lose whatever you bring to the table. Using the same equations I did for the M progressive would put the BR requirement at infinite. Play enough, you lose, end of story.

I believe the reason Judy is having trouble understanding these numbers is because she hasn't crunched the numbers for the games she feels are safer. Let's do that now.

Using the Risk of Ruin formula in VPW for quarters, to have a 1 in 1000 RoR we need the following bankrolls for these four popular games:

FPDW = $17,620

5-7-T Dbl BoPo = $92,672

NSUD = Infinite

9/6 JoB = Infinite

Taken in context the $20,000 amount I stated as a BR requirement for M is very reasonable and only slightly more than what you are supposed to have to play quarter Full-Pay Deuces Wild.

My guess is that most people are playing everything with less than recommended bankroll and therefore take issue when a reasonable BR requirement is posted for an individual game without a frame of reference handy for comparison. If I had know that this was needed I would have posted it sooner. Sorry. I thought everyone was familiar with RoR calculations.

If you own a copy of VPW or OpVP, they both contain RoR calculations. I recommend running your game of choice though, and enter ".01" in the chance of ruin field, and then click on calculate BR requirement.

You'll find that $20,000 is not only reasonable it's on the low side.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@> wrote: And how much of a bankroll would you want to play for a "normal" $1000 royal, say on 9-6 JoB or something like that? About 4 or 5 times the royal? And Frank DID mention something like a 1 in a 1000 risk of ruin. Sounds like Frank is a cautious man. Nothing wrong with that.
>
> But don't let me stop you from putting a negative spin on it.
>

#7

You are correct. .01 would be for a 1 in 10,000. Did you recalculate it for DBL BoPo?

Of course the two negative games would remain infinite.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Lucy" <luckylucyano9@...> wrote:

Isn't 0.01% going to give you the 1 in 10,000 chance of going broke instead of 1 in 1000? I think you mean 0.1% which will give you a smaller bankroll requirement for FPDW, $13,215.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
>
>
> Interesting question Bob.
>
> I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game, you are expected to lose whatever you bring to the table. Using the same equations I did for the M progressive would put the BR requirement at infinite. Play enough, you lose, end of story.
>
> I believe the reason Judy is having trouble understanding these numbers is because she hasn't crunched the numbers for the games she feels are safer. Let's do that now.
>
> Using the Risk of Ruin formula in VPW for quarters, to have a 1 in 1000 RoR we need the following bankrolls for these four popular games:
>
> FPDW = $17,620
>
> 5-7-T Dbl BoPo = $92,672
>
> NSUD = Infinite
>
> 9/6 JoB = Infinite
>
> Taken in context the $20,000 amount I stated as a BR requirement for M is very reasonable and only slightly more than what you are supposed to have to play quarter Full-Pay Deuces Wild.
>
> My guess is that most people are playing everything with less than recommended bankroll and therefore take issue when a reasonable BR requirement is posted for an individual game without a frame of reference handy for comparison. If I had know that this was needed I would have posted it sooner. Sorry. I thought everyone was familiar with RoR calculations.
>
> If you own a copy of VPW or OpVP, they both contain RoR calculations. I recommend running your game of choice though, and enter ".01" in the chance of ruin field, and then click on calculate BR requirement.
>
> You'll find that $20,000 is not only reasonable it's on the low side.
>
> ~FK
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@> wrote: And how much of a bankroll would you want to play for a "normal" $1000 royal, say on 9-6 JoB or something like that? About 4 or 5 times the royal? And Frank DID mention something like a 1 in a 1000 risk of ruin. Sounds like Frank is a cautious man. Nothing wrong with that.
> >
> > But don't let me stop you from putting a negative spin on it.
> >
>

#8

$69504 for 10/7 Double Bonus.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

You are correct. .01 would be for a 1 in 10,000. Did you recalculate it for DBL BoPo?

Of course the two negative games would remain infinite.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Lucy" <luckylucyano9@> wrote:
>
> Isn't 0.01% going to give you the 1 in 10,000 chance of going broke instead of 1 in 1000? I think you mean 0.1% which will give you a smaller bankroll requirement for FPDW, $13,215.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Interesting question Bob.
> >
> > I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game, you are expected to lose whatever you bring to the table. Using the same equations I did for the M progressive would put the BR requirement at infinite. Play enough, you lose, end of story.
> >
> > I believe the reason Judy is having trouble understanding these numbers is because she hasn't crunched the numbers for the games she feels are safer. Let's do that now.
> >
> > Using the Risk of Ruin formula in VPW for quarters, to have a 1 in 1000 RoR we need the following bankrolls for these four popular games:
> >
> > FPDW = $17,620
> >
> > 5-7-T Dbl BoPo = $92,672
> >
> > NSUD = Infinite
> >
> > 9/6 JoB = Infinite
> >
> > Taken in context the $20,000 amount I stated as a BR requirement for M is very reasonable and only slightly more than what you are supposed to have to play quarter Full-Pay Deuces Wild.
> >
> > My guess is that most people are playing everything with less than recommended bankroll and therefore take issue when a reasonable BR requirement is posted for an individual game without a frame of reference handy for comparison. If I had know that this was needed I would have posted it sooner. Sorry. I thought everyone was familiar with RoR calculations.
> >
> > If you own a copy of VPW or OpVP, they both contain RoR calculations. I recommend running your game of choice though, and enter ".01" in the chance of ruin field, and then click on calculate BR requirement.
> >
> > You'll find that $20,000 is not only reasonable it's on the low side.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Bob Bartop" <bobbartop@> wrote: And how much of a bankroll would you want to play for a "normal" $1000 royal, say on 9-6 JoB or something like that? About 4 or 5 times the royal? And Frank DID mention something like a 1 in a 1000 risk of ruin. Sounds like Frank is a cautious man. Nothing wrong with that.
> > >
> > > But don't let me stop you from putting a negative spin on it.
> > >
> >
>

#9

A $4,000 bankroll will let you play about 10,000 hands of 9/6 JOB at the $1.00 level with less than a 1% ROR.

Thus, at the $0.25 level, $1,000 should suffice for 10,000 hands.

···

At least according to Dunbar's and Dancer's software. ..... bl --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game

#10

Sorry Peter, there may be a misunderstanding. RoR (at least the one I used) assumes infinite hands. Therefore, for negative games the RoR is always 100% with infinite bankroll.

I think you are looking at the bankroll calculator in VPW. The RoR feature is in the bottom right of that screen. It is a different equation.

I'm not familiar with Dunbar's software.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Peter" <bornloser1537@...> wrote:
A $4,000 bankroll will let you play about 10,000 hands of 9/6 JOB at the $1.00 level with less than a 1% ROR.

Thus, at the $0.25 level, $1,000 should suffice for 10,000 hands.

At least according to Dunbar's and Dancer's software. ..... bl --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:

I can't list a recommended bankroll for 9/6 JoB because as it is a negative expectancy game