Most VP software (VPW, Frugal, Win Poker, etc. Even the old Stanford Wong
software did this which I used to analyze 10-7DB.) shows the value of all
possible holds when analyzing a hand. If you take the difference between the
"best" hold and the "RF" hold and multiply it by 47 for a 4RF, 1081 for a
3RF, 16215 for a 2RF and 178365 for a stiff high card the result is the
amount the progressive must increase to make the "RF" hold equal in value to
the "best" hold. If your software is set to 4000 for the RF add 4000 to the
product calculated above for the progressive strike value.
This method is an easy shortcut for most games. I just want to point out to
those who have not used it, that it does not work in all situations. Two
games that I have worked on recently are 9-5 DDB 3-play 5 way progressive
and 7-5 SAB 3-play. In both of these games you will find that a one card
royal draw is superior to a two card royal draw at reset. Huh? Consider
that in each game an ace in one suit is superior to a TQ or TJ in another
suit. I play a fair amount of the 7-5 SAB progressive game, as the three
royal total often winds up in positive territory. It may seem to you that
you should just use the "formula" above and take the EV of TJ and subtract
it from the EV of the bare ace and then multiply x 4000 for your strike
number, but that will only let you close in on the figure. In most games
when you compare two different holds to determine when you make a change,
like a TK suited to a QK unsuited, from a TQK, one hold is static and the
other dynamic. In other words, the value of TK suited will always be
increasing as the royal amount rises, and the value of the QK unsuited will
not rise as this hold is not part of a royal, so it's value is static. If
you go back to the SAB hand of TJ suited and the bare A in another suit, you
can see that both of these holds are dynamic, always rising as the royal
meter goes up. Sure the value of the 4 Aces is static, it will always be
2,000 coins, but as the royal meter rises both hold values, the TJ suited
and the A, also rise, albeit at a different rate. Say your hand is TJc Ad
5h and 6s, the formula will say that your strike pint is 7,627 coins ( or
$1957 ). Now you have to deploy your hunt and peck tools, picking royal
amounts and re-analyzing the holds until both EV's are equal. You should
find that the strike point to prefer TJ suited over the A is 8210 coins ( or
$2,052 ), almost $100 higher than the formula.
Nudge
···
From: "Howard W. Stern"
Subject: [vpFREE] Progressive Adjustments