vpFREE2 Forums

'Professional' VP Players a thing of the past?

#1

should be more like 1.6 million hands per year
40 x 50 x 800=1.6 million
(about 35 royal cycles, 326 deuces cycles)
as for losing seven royals, yeah it could happen
fpdw R(1)=0.999346831
risk of ruin=R(1)^(bankroll in bets)
risk of ruin of 7 royals=0.999346831^(7x800)=0.025759824=2.6%
that's more than a 2sd loss however:
average return=.0076(1.6million)=12,160bets
standard deviation=sqrt(26x1.6million)=6,450bets
-5600=12,160-N(6,450), solving for N: N=2.75, so 2.75sd loss
you can also use this tool to get bankroll risk:
http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

Never read the story, but the 160,000 hands figure sounds off. A

thousand

hands per hour, a relaxed pace for a highly competent player, would

mean he

played 4 40 hour weeks. and I believe 160,000 hands is indeed a

very small

sample when it comes to a degree of confidence that you will

approach an

expected return.

  _____

From: cheesy1012001 [mailto:steve@v…]
Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 3:16 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] 'Professional' VP Players a thing of the past?

*

I almost toyed with this idea myself until I read a frankly
disturbing article in Strictly Slots which detailed one years real
world play from a semi-pro player who lives in Vegas. He dropped
$7,000 in twelve months (playing .25 machines) despite playing only
100%+ games and taking advantage of any slot club promotions,

coupon

deals etc. He was playing 40 hours a week (retired I believe) so

you

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...> wrote:

couldn't say that these results were based on a small sample, he
estimated he had played 160,000 hands.

.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000"
<nightoftheiguana2000@y...> wrote:

should be more like 1.6 million hands per year
40 x 50 x 800=1.6 million
(about 35 royal cycles, 326 deuces cycles)
as for losing seven royals, yeah it could happen
fpdw R(1)=0.999346831
risk of ruin=R(1)^(bankroll in bets)
risk of ruin of 7 royals=0.999346831^(7x800)=0.025759824=2.6%
that's more than a 2sd loss however:
average return=.0076(1.6million)=12,160bets
standard deviation=sqrt(26x1.6million)=6,450bets
-5600=12,160-N(6,450), solving for N: N=2.75, so 2.75sd loss
you can also use this tool to get bankroll risk:
http://www.gamblingtools.net/vp/vpanalyzer.html

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Chandler" <omnibibulous1@c...>

wrote:

> Never read the story, but the 160,000 hands figure sounds off. A
thousand
> hands per hour, a relaxed pace for a highly competent player,

would

mean he
> played 4 40 hour weeks. and I believe 160,000 hands is indeed a
very small
> sample when it comes to a degree of confidence that you will
approach an
> expected return.
>
>
>
> _____
>
> From: cheesy1012001 [mailto:steve@v…]
> Sent: Tuesday, November 30, 2004 3:16 PM
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: [vpFREE] 'Professional' VP Players a thing of the past?
>
>
>
> *
>
> I almost toyed with this idea myself until I read a frankly
> disturbing article in Strictly Slots which detailed one years

real

> world play from a semi-pro player who lives in Vegas. He dropped
> $7,000 in twelve months (playing .25 machines) despite playing

only

> 100%+ games and taking advantage of any slot club promotions,
coupon
> deals etc. He was playing 40 hours a week (retired I believe) so
you
> couldn't say that these results were based on a small sample, he
> estimated he had played 160,000 hands.
>
> .
>
>
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

Ok, I may have been off in the amount of hands played, and I agree
that Bob Dancer's personal finances are irrelevant to this
discussion. What i would like someone to address is the point about
whether it is possible to make a decent living, lets say to clear
50,000 dollars per year, purely from VP in the current environment.

#3

it's possible, but it's no job, it's a gamble
it takes money to make money and you always face the risk of the big
running net losing streak that will end your venture (most people
don't like to think about it but everyone has a breaking point,
whether they are pro's or clueless amateurs, math is always math
whether you believe in it or not)
if your goal is to make a living gambling, texas hold'em live and
online is where most of the pro's are
here's a good place to get started:
http://tinyurl.com/6lget

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cheesy1012001" <steve@v...> wrote:

What i would like someone to address is the point about
whether it is possible to make a decent living, lets say to clear
50,000 dollars per year, purely from VP in the current environment.