During the last 5 outings, I have been extremely lucky in that I have
hit the deuces 7 times. Twice each during two different sessions.
Also, during those 5 sessions, I have had the deuces dealt to me twice.
My question is, what is the probablility of dealt deuces, and could
someone show me how to calculate it.
DWK
I hope I don't get this wrong, that would be embarassing:
There are 52 choose 5 possible combinations to be dealt to you. That
calculates 2598960.
To get 4 of a kind, there's one rank, 4 suites of that card, and the last
card can be any of the remaining 48 cards. So you get 13 choose 1 times 4
choose 4 times 48 choose 1. The 4 choose 4 is just 1, so your formula for
any 4 of a kind is 13 choose 1 times 48 choose 1. This turns out to be 624.
The probability of a dealt hand is 624 / 2598960. The odds are just
1/(624/2598960), or 4165. This is just any 4 of a kind. To get deuces
specifically, it is one out of the 13 possible ranks, so you multiply this
by 13. The final number is 54,145.
I did this a roundabout way on purpose, because it might be useful to
calculate something based on any 4 of a kind in the future. You can
calculate this number directly by just taking 48 choose 1 since you're only
interested in ONE particular 4 of a kind (and therefore the 13 choose 1
in the above is not relevant). You get 48. So 2598960 / 48 = 54145.
On 7/21/08, deuceswild1000 <deuceswild1000@yahoo.com> wrote:
During the last 5 outings, I have been extremely lucky in that I have
hit the deuces 7 times. Twice each during two different sessions.Also, during those 5 sessions, I have had the deuces dealt to me twice.
My question is, what is the probablility of dealt deuces, and could
someone show me how to calculate it.DWK
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
By the way, what might be even more interesting is, if you can estimate the
number of hands played, you can use a binomial distribution to determine the
odds that you do get 2 dealt quad 2s. Then you can see how lucky you REALLY
are!
On 7/21/08, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@gmail.com> wrote:
I hope I don't get this wrong, that would be embarassing:
There are 52 choose 5 possible combinations to be dealt to you. That
calculates 2598960.To get 4 of a kind, there's one rank, 4 suites of that card, and the last
card can be any of the remaining 48 cards. So you get 13 choose 1 times 4
choose 4 times 48 choose 1. The 4 choose 4 is just 1, so your formula for
any 4 of a kind is 13 choose 1 times 48 choose 1. This turns out to be 624.The probability of a dealt hand is 624 / 2598960. The odds are just
1/(624/2598960), or 4165. This is just any 4 of a kind. To get deuces
specifically, it is one out of the 13 possible ranks, so you multiply this
by 13. The final number is 54,145.I did this a roundabout way on purpose, because it might be useful to
calculate something based on any 4 of a kind in the future. You can
calculate this number directly by just taking 48 choose 1 since you're only
interested in ONE particular 4 of a kind (and therefore the 13 choose 1
in the above is not relevant). You get 48. So 2598960 / 48 = 54145.On 7/21/08, deuceswild1000 <deuceswild1000@yahoo.com> wrote:
During the last 5 outings, I have been extremely lucky in that I have
hit the deuces 7 times. Twice each during two different sessions.Also, during those 5 sessions, I have had the deuces dealt to me twice.
My question is, what is the probablility of dealt deuces, and could
someone show me how to calculate it.DWK
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]