vpFREE2 Forums

Probability of 2 Consecutive Dealt RF's

#1

Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
RF also being dealt.

Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a dealt
RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
player strategy and type of game).

650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
average of course).

Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
dealt RF.

Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
low ... I thought it would higher.

#2

Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:

The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.

Rick

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
RF also being dealt.

Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a dealt
RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
player strategy and type of game).

650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
average of course).

Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
dealt RF.

Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
low ... I thought it would higher.

#3

Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:

Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:

Gosh, guess my calculator from a box of Captain Crunch came from the
same factory ...

- H.

#4

> Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at

calculating

> the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean

in

> 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the

next

> RF also being dealt.
>
> Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a

dealt

> RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on

the

> player strategy and type of game).
>
> 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
> average of course).
>
> Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by

another

> dealt RF.

You are calculating the probability that, starting now, the next two
rf's will be dealt ones. Why not wait until you get a first dealt
one. Then the next rf will be another dealt one about once in 16.25
times, as you calculated.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

#5

If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us your
solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.

···

On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:

Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:

The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.

Rick

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
> the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
> 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
> RF also being dealt.
>
> Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a dealt
> RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
> player strategy and type of game).
>
> 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
> average of course).
>
> Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
> dealt RF.
>
> Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
> low ... I thought it would higher.

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Yahoo! Groups Links

#6

You are saying the probability of hitting 2 DEALT royals back to back
is only 264 to one when the probability of hitting 1 DEALT royal is
650000 to one? Get real!

Rick

If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us your
solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.

> Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
> And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:
>
> The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.
>
> Rick
>
> > Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
> > the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
> > 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
> > RF also being dealt.
> >
> > Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a

dealt

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote:

On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> > RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> > approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
> > player strategy and type of game).
> >
> > 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
> > average of course).
> >
> > Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> > That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
> > dealt RF.
> >
> > Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
> > low ... I thought it would higher.
>
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

#7

It's been a while since I've done much math, but it seems to me the odds
of it happening are 650,000 squared to 1, assuming the odds of getting a
dealt royal were correct in the first place...

Not to say it can't happen...if you stay around a casino long enough,
you'll see just about everything :slight_smile:

"A Little Less Conversation, A Little More Action, Please"
Elvis Presley, 1968

···

-----Original Message-----
From: Steve Jacobs [mailto:jac…@…com]
Sent: Sunday, September 26, 2004 2:06 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Probability of 2 Consecutive Dealt RF's

If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us your
solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.

On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:

Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:

The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.

Rick

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
> the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
> 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
> RF also being dealt.
>
> Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a

dealt

> RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
> player strategy and type of game).
>
> 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
> average of course).
>
> Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
> dealt RF.
>
> Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
> low ... I thought it would higher.

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#8

I believe brumar_lv's math is correct. For Jacks or Better, the
probability is about (40,390/649740)^2 ~ 0.003864, and the
reciprocal of the last value is about 259. There may be a
misunderstanding of the question here...how about the re-
phrasing "What is the probability that your next 2 royal flushes
will both be dealt royal flushes?"

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Rick & Lucky Lucy"
<luckylucy39@e...> wrote:

You are saying the probability of hitting 2 DEALT royals back to

back

is only 264 to one when the probability of hitting 1 DEALT royal is
650000 to one? Get real!

Rick

> If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us

your

> solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
> approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.
>
> > Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY

off.

> > And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:
> >
> > The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.
> >
> > Rick
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...>

wrote:

> > > Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at

calculating

> > > the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't

mean in

> > > 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then

the next

> > > RF also being dealt.
> > >
> > > Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands.

Likewise, a

dealt
> > > RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are

just

> > > approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending

on the

> > > player strategy and type of game).
> > >
> > > 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is

dealt (on

> > > average of course).
> > >
> > > Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 =

264

> > > That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by

another

> > > dealt RF.
> > >
> > > Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds

are this

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote:
> On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:
> > > low ... I thought it would higher.
> >
> >
> > vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >

#9

Nobody is saying anything of the sort. Did you actually READ the
post that you were responding to? If so, you certainly missed this
key part:

"I don't mean in 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF
and then the next RF also being dealt."

···

On Sunday 26 September 2004 12:22 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:

You are saying the probability of hitting 2 DEALT royals back to back
is only 264 to one when the probability of hitting 1 DEALT royal is
650000 to one? Get real!

Rick

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote:
> If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us your
> solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
> approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.
>
> On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:
> > Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
> > And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:
> >
> > The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.
> >
> > Rick
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> > > Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at calculating
> > > the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean in
> > > 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the next
> > > RF also being dealt.
> > >
> > > Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a

dealt

> > > RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> > > approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
> > > player strategy and type of game).
> > >
> > > 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
> > > average of course).
> > >
> > > Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> > > That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by another
> > > dealt RF.
> > >
> > > Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
> > > low ... I thought it would higher.
> >
> > vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#10

Steve Jacobs wrote:

Nobody is saying anything of the sort. Did you actually READ the
post that you were responding to? If so, you certainly missed this
key part:

"I don't mean in 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF
and then the next RF also being dealt."

I think the approximation is correct.

More or less just lurking nowadays. Been busy with other things, in case anyone thinks I've given up playing. :slight_smile:

Cheers

Bill Velek

#11

You are right, I missed that little qualifier and took 2 consecutive
plays to mean ... well, consecutive. I stand corrected.

Rick

Nobody is saying anything of the sort. Did you actually READ the
post that you were responding to? If so, you certainly missed this
key part:

"I don't mean in 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF
and then the next RF also being dealt."

> You are saying the probability of hitting 2 DEALT royals back to back
> is only 264 to one when the probability of hitting 1 DEALT royal is
> 650000 to one? Get real!
>
> Rick
>
> > If you have a solution that isn't "WAY off" then please show us your
> > solution. I thought the 16.25 and 264 values were reasonable
> > approximations, but if I'm wrong I'd like to know why.
> >
> > > Well back to the old drawing board, your calculations are WAY off.
> > > And throw away that calculator from the Cracker Jax box. :wink:
> > >
> > > The 16.25 you are quoting is royal cycles not dealt hands.
> > >
> > > Rick
> > >
> > > > Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at

calculating

> > > > the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't

mean in

> > > > 2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then

the next

> > > > RF also being dealt.
> > > >
> > > > Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a
>
> dealt
>
> > > > RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
> > > > approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending

on the

> > > > player strategy and type of game).
> > > >
> > > > 650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is

dealt (on

> > > > average of course).
> > > >
> > > > Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
> > > > That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by

another

> > > > dealt RF.
> > > >
> > > > Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds

are this

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote:

On Sunday 26 September 2004 12:22 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Steve Jacobs <jacobs@x> wrote:
> > On Saturday 25 September 2004 05:38 pm, Rick & Lucky Lucy wrote:
> > > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:
> > > > low ... I thought it would higher.
> > >
> > > vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
> > >
> > >
> > > Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
> vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
>
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>

#12

When I first moved to VA, your driving licence would be suspended if you got 2 tickets in one year. A friend pointed out that it was really one in a year; the first one just started the one year counting period. Same thing with this Royal example.

Dick

#13

I replied early Sunday afternoon, but near 7 pm eastern time I don't
see my posting. What I said was that you might as well wait for the
first dealt royal, and start counting then. In that case you're
just interested in that next dealt royal, and its probability with
respect to all royals is just the 1 in 16.25 you calculated. AAM

Although this has no practical value, here's my stab at

calculating

the likelihood of getting 2 consecutive dealt RF's. I don't mean

in

2 consecutive plays ... I mean getting a dealt RF and then the

next

RF also being dealt.

Assume a RF comes, on average, every 40,000 hands. Likewise, a

dealt

RF comes, on average, every 650,000 hands (both figures are just
approximations ... the 40,000 figure varies a lot depending on the
player strategy and type of game).

650,000 / 40,000 = 16.25 That is, every 16.25 RF's is dealt (on
average of course).

Probability of it happening twice in a row: 16.25 x 16.25 = 264
That is, there is 1 chance in 264 of a dealt RF followed by

another

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

dealt RF.

Assuming this is correct, I'm somewhat surprised the odds are this
low ... I thought it would higher.

#14

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jeffcole2003oct" <jeff-cole@c...>
wrote:

There may be a
misunderstanding of the question here...how about the re-
phrasing "What is the probability that your next 2 royal flushes
will both be dealt royal flushes?"

I wish I'd used that phrasing in the first place! Thanks.

I guess there are two correct answers ... 16.25 and 264 ...
depending on whether we are referring to the next two RF's we get
being dealt (1 in 264), or the odds of the next RF being dealt after
getting a dealt RF (1 in 16.25).

The odds your next two RF's will be dealt is greater than the odds
that a 2 number Roulette bet will win in two consecutive wheel spins
(1 in 361), or rolling consecutive 3's or 11's in Craps (1 in 289).

#15

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jeffcole2003oct" <jeff-cole@c...>
wrote:
> There may be a
> misunderstanding of the question here...how about the re-
> phrasing "What is the probability that your next 2 royal flushes
> will both be dealt royal flushes?"
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I wish I'd used that phrasing in the first place! Thanks.

I guess there are two correct answers ... 16.25 and 264 ...
depending on whether we are referring to the next two RF's we get
being dealt (1 in 264), or the odds of the next RF being dealt

after

getting a dealt RF (1 in 16.25).

The odds your next two RF's will be dealt is greater than the odds
that a 2 number Roulette bet will win in two consecutive wheel

spins

···

on pick'em the probability is 100% --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "brumar_lv" <brumar_lv@y...> wrote:

(1 in 361), or rolling consecutive 3's or 11's in Craps (1 in 289).