vpFREE2 Forums

Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

#21

I think you got that one pegged.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dealt4oak" <dealt4oak@...> wrote: I wanted to address the misconception that you posted about end machines paying more. It can be seen in two ways, we see it as not correct because we know the math behind VP machines, but the average person just sees the hits they witness when they are walking down the isles of machines. The average joe sees more hits on these machines because they are played more often and the amount of hands played on these machines allows for these hits. No one can deny end machines are not played more frequently. You dont see hits on a machine that is not played, thus, the idea of the end machines are luckier comes into play. Slot directors use this thought in the placement in their reel slots at many casinos. Slots such as Double Diamond and Red, White and Blue 7s are placed at the ends of isles because they are a high frequency hit machine. The hits are small but this allows people walking by to see "more" hits, which entices them to play. As multipliers go up the frequency goes down such as the 10X or 12X machines, but the jackpots are big. When I walk into a casino and walk to the other side to sit at my machine I definitely notice people hitting quads or slot jackpots on the end because its right in front of me.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Here's what I was hoping to see in this thread. Above is a really good real world example of where real people, in this case flight instructors, came to exactly the wrong conclusions even though they're observations were correct.
>
> Since this is vpFREE I thought people might want to chime in with VP related cognitive errors like thinking that end machines are luckier, because they hit more.
>
> State a casino misconception and then talk about what causes it. You're on your own for a few days, but I'll check in on Saturday.
>

#22

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Pat Nashick <patnashick@...> wrote: The biggest misconception that I see all the time is people avoiding playing a particular machine because "it just hit." If the previous player shows a big cash out amount they play another machine. That and the idiocy of changing machines in the same bank because, after a minimal amount of play, they decide the machine is "cold." Then there are the folks who keep cashing out and putting the ticket back in. What does that do besides make the machine run out of paper?

Well one thing it does is to give people a sense of illusory control. It may change nothing, but when they win, which they will every now and then, it gives them something THEY DID on which to place the credit.

~FK

#23

Hay outstanding contributions all around, This turned into a really interesting thread. I'm afraid that's all I have for time for this weekend.

Be well all. I'll be back March 1st.

#24

Oh there was one more thing I wanted to say before I sign off for a week. Absolutely nothing I've said on the subject of psychology is anything special. I've just read a lot of books on the subject and if any of you are interested in the subject, my level of understanding is but a few months of reading away.

What you may not know is that psychology has seen a remarkable renaissance in the last decade, so even if you did study psychology back in high-school or college, you'll want to brush up on the latest information.

~FK

#25

Along those lines - the guy who cashes - for whatever reason - constantly. "Machine knows you are winning if a bunch of credits/coins are on the meter"! This was a real annoyance when everything was coin droppers. To each his own.... There was an old guy who played the sportsbook bar at LVH a few years ago - when they had the coin droppers - and FP pick-'em. He was a chain smoker and cashed all the time. Drove the slot guys nuts always having to do his fills. I tried not to get too close....(-;

Jigger

"My anger management class pisses me off"

"You can"t drink all day if you don't start in the morning"

···

--- On Sat, 2/25/12, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:

From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, February 25, 2012, 3:55 PM
OK that will do for a talking point.

So in your opinion, if I understand you, playing machines
with a negative expectancy qualifies as a misconception to
you, and you don't understand why people do it. I'll try to
answer.

I'm sure people are gong to disagree with you, so I won't
get involved in that, but here's what I know about the
heuristic that may be involved in the dynamic.

The Availability Heuristic, makes things which are more
easily remembered dominate our decision making process.
Combined with reduced sensitivity to negative stimuli and
increased sensitivity to positive stimuli a net negative
situation can be enjoyable to some people.

Imagine a totally hypothetical situation where flipping a
coin heads was positive, and having it come up tails was
negative. Now imagine that the person flipping the coin
remembers disproportionately the times they win over the
times they lose. And lastly try to imagine that they don't
"feel" the loss that much, but they get very excited by the
wins.

In this fashion one could derive enjoyment from flipping a
coin even though the activity was net neutral from a
financial point of view.

Does that help explain it?

It's hard to put a price on enjoyment and entertainment, and
I see no fundamental problem with money spent on
entertainment as long as people know that's what they are
doing.

The line of "problem" is only crossed if the think they are
winning when they are not. (Here I'm not talking about
expectancy, I'm talking about actual results.) The easiest
way to avoid this trap is keeping accurate lifetime records.
Your brain might only remember the wins, but a piece of
paper should be immune to this heuristic.

~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
"jim_mason7" <7711-jimmason@...> wrote:
The concept must be above my pay grade. I play VP to win
$$.
> As long as the play is positive it is worth my time and
risk.
> I personally do not understand other people's
motivation to
> play any casino game for a result the would yield less
in the long run. However, this is still a free
country, so as long as one can afford it, each to his own.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
"Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> >
> > Wow...I'm surprised that in two days no one has
posted their favorite casino misconception and discussed
what heuristic might cause it.
> >
> > I thought that since this was vpFREE, a site
devoted to VP, I'd see tons of chatter. I could provide a
few to get the ball rolling, but that would defeat the
purpose, since I'm more interested in what's interesting to
all of you.
> >
> > I already know what I think...or at least I think
I do.
> >
> > ~FK
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com,
"Frank" <frank@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Here's what I was hoping to see in this
thread. Above is a really good real world example of where
real people, in this case flight instructors, came to
exactly the wrong conclusions even though they're
observations were correct.
> > >
> > > Since this is vpFREE I thought people might
want to chime in with VP related cognitive errors like
thinking that end machines are luckier, because they hit
more.
> > >
> > > State a casino misconception and then talk
about what causes it. You're on your own for a few days, but
I'll check in on Saturday.
> > >
> >
>

------------------------------------

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#26

If the player is otherwise knowledgeable I'd put this in the category of a harmless quirk or superstition, or in a 6 hour session just something to do. Changing from one to another identical machine has no negative statistical consequence.

What's bad is at casinos that mix in good and bad paytables on the same row; 9/6 JOB mixed in with 8/6 for example. Players who change from the "cold" 9/6 to the 8/6 are making the bad decision based on the misconception.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Pat Nashick <patnashick@...> wrote:

The biggest misconception that I see all the time is people avoiding playing a particular machine because "it just hit." ... That and the idiocy of changing machines in the same bank because, after a minimal amount of play, they decide the machine is "cold."

#27

Coming in late on this, but here's the most surprising one I've heard.

Several years ago we were in Reno and playing a $1 progressive 8/5 BP that was up over $6k. Sitting next to me was a guy I met the year before. He had previously been a blackjack dealer and he knew all the dealers at this place. He played correctly, and we talked about a few adjustments based on the level of the progressive.

He dropped about $500 and said he'd had enough for the night. I said something about it being expensive to chase these progressives and he replied "yeah, especially when they tighten them up as the jackpot gets higher". I thought he was joking and said "since you know so many people around here you should ask the fellow in the back room to flip the switch for you." "Oh no", he says, "they can't do it on individual players, they'd lose their gaming license, they just tighten the whole bank.". My jaw must have actually dropped open.

Why does he believe this? My best guess is that he remembers those big losses while chasing progressives. Also maybe the seed was planted in his mind by someone who he thought was knowledgeable.

Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com

... favorite casino misconception and discussed what heuristic might cause it.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

#28

There is nothing wrong with changing machines. If Im playing a non progressive and the next machine, or a machine on another bank, has the same full pay game I move because I just cant sit at the same machine for long periods of time. If it doesn't matter mathematically to change it shouldn't matter if I move to create a break or see some new scenery. Sometimes a good stretch is good enough but my back and ass thank me for moving around the casino. Cold and hot machines are part of the psychology of playing vp. I see no problem with making myself feel better about moving to a machine with the same game because I cant hit a quad after 1000+ hands. Full pay machines are full pay machines, its one long session.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Pat Nashick <patnashick@...> wrote:

The biggest misconception that I see all the time is people avoiding playing a particular machine because "it just hit." If the previous player shows a big cash out amount they play another machine. That and the idiocy of changing machines in the same bank because, after a minimal amount of play, they decide the machine is "cold." Then there are the folks who keep cashing out and putting the ticket back in. What does that do besides make the machine run out of paper?

________________________________
From: Mickey <mickeycrimm@...>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, February 25, 2012 3:32 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A
  
Â

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> Wow...I'm surprised that in two days no one has posted their favorite casino misconception and discussed what heuristic might cause it.
>
>
I live in an area where there are plenty of machine players but no one has any concept of how a video poker or video keno game works. Here's one of the misconceptions I observe: If you see someone dump a bunch of money in a machine without hitting anything, then that's the machine you want to play because it's due to hit. The only thing I can attribute to this way of thinking is just pure ignorance.

And the other morning I was in a casino checking meters. The slot attendent, a twentysomething kid, asked if he could help me find a game. I said I was checking the meters and said "why should I play for a low meter when I can play for a high one?" His response was "I've found the game plays better when the meter is low." I hadn't had my morning coffee yet and wasn't suffering the fool very well. Not finding a play I walked out the door muttering to myself about dumasses and idiots.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#29

dealt4oak wrote:

There is nothing wrong with changing machines. If Im playing a non progressive and the next machine, or a machine on another bank, has the same full pay game I move because I just cant sit at the same machine for long periods of time. If it doesn't matter mathematically to change it shouldn't matter if I move to create a break or see some new scenery. Sometimes a good stretch is good enough but my back and ass thank me for moving around the casino. Cold and hot machines are part of the psychology of playing vp. I see no problem with making myself feel better about moving to a machine with the same game because I cant hit a quad after 1000+ hands. Full pay machines are full pay machines, its one long session.

Didn't we just discuss this recently?

There might be nothing wrong with changing machines, but there is
something "wrong" with the misconceptions that can motivate it. If
it's all "one long session," why change machines if you "cant hit a
quad after 1000+ hands?"

#30

I answered that in the second to last sentence. It makes me feel better. If its the same pay scale no harm/no foul. Im not sure why its so hard for people to understand. I gamble for enjoyment not to make a living or earn comps. If I hit well or earn a nice $100 dinner than so be it. I do play quite a lot so I would rather enjoy myself than be bored or flustered. I'm the type of person that doesn't like to sit in one spot too long. The only exception is a high progressive or there just isn't any other machines available. Id rather go home than sit at a machine that isn't hitting anything for several hours. There are days when I can hit 15-20 quads and some days its a struggle to get a few. I understand the long term and math and I play using correct strategy so at the end of the year I pretty much break even which covers my gambling habit. By the way I have been over royaled(I only play single line) for the last 6 years and my outcome is pretty close to the expected percentages. I would worry more about the people that play very shorted games as I will only play full pay VP. If that not available I head over to the Pai Gow table.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

dealt4oak wrote:

>There is nothing wrong with changing machines. If Im playing a non progressive and the next machine, or a machine on another bank, has the same full pay game I move because I just cant sit at the same machine for long periods of time. If it doesn't matter mathematically to change it shouldn't matter if I move to create a break or see some new scenery. Sometimes a good stretch is good enough but my back and ass thank me for moving around the casino. Cold and hot machines are part of the psychology of playing vp. I see no problem with making myself feel better about moving to a machine with the same game because I cant hit a quad after 1000+ hands. Full pay machines are full pay machines, its one long session.

Didn't we just discuss this recently?

There might be nothing wrong with changing machines, but there is
something "wrong" with the misconceptions that can motivate it. If
it's all "one long session," why change machines if you "cant hit a
quad after 1000+ hands?"

#31

If changing machines to a lower paytable made you feel better, would
you?

dealt4oak wrote:

···

I answered that in the second to last sentence. It makes me feel better. If its the same pay scale no harm/no foul.

#32

I cant explain it any better than I have. Why would playing a lower pay table make me feel better? I think you need to improve your critical thinking skills if you cant comprehend my explanation. Im not sure how anyone could be successful at gambling if they cannot comprehend simple explanations. Do you want a physical presentation of what I do and why, perhaps we can meet at GVR one of these days? Ive had this conversation with Kneeland and he understood it. Another point Id like to make is that I take what anyone says here with a grain of salt. Ive seen so called advantage players talk the talk and not play like they preach. I see them switching games, I see them switching machines or worse, playing sub par pay tables with nothing going on to make it a positive play. Ive talked with some of these players and it comes down to the mind games the machines play with people. There are some out there that are very disciplined but they are few and far between. Just look at the jackpot pics on this forum and others. Makes you wonder.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

If changing machines to a lower paytable made you feel better, would
you?

dealt4oak wrote:

>I answered that in the second to last sentence. It makes me feel better. If its the same pay scale no harm/no foul.

#33

Tom Robertson wrote:

There might be nothing wrong with changing machines, but there is something "wrong" with the misconceptions that can motivate it. If
it's all "one long session," why change machines if you "cant hit a quad after 1000+ hands?"

Top 10 reasons to change machines: (with apologies to David Letterman)
to take a break, to spend some quality time in the porcelain throne room, to move away from annoying drafts, players or smoke wafting into your eyes,
to stretch out from the seated position, to change the lighting pattern hitting the machine, to move from an upright to a slant top or vice versa, to have a different set of noises assaulting your eardrums, to move closer to or further from a significant other.
Any or all of which can just relax you, energize you and ensure that you will play as error-free as your training and skills will allow you.

Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

________________________________
From: <007@embarqmail.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, February 26, 2012 1:28 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: Prelude to Post of Dr. William G. McCown Q&A

dealt4oak wrote:

There is nothing wrong with changing machines. If Im playing a non progressive and the next machine, or a machine on another bank, has the same full pay game I move because I just cant sit at the same machine for long periods of time. If it doesn't matter mathematically to change it shouldn't matter if I move to create a break or see some new scenery. Sometimes a good stretch is good enough but my back and ass thank me for moving around the casino. Cold and hot machines are part of the psychology of playing vp. I see no problem with making myself feel better about moving to a machine with the same game because I cant hit a quad after 1000+ hands. Full pay machines are full pay machines, its one long session.

Didn't we just discuss this recently?

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#34

dealt4oak wrote:

I cant explain it any better than I have. Why would playing a lower pay table make me feel better?

Who knows? You wrote that you'd rather play Pai Gow than nothing.
Feelings are very unpredictable. Is there any reason the gain you see
in leaving a "cold" machine is necessarily less than the loss you see
in a lower paytable?

Ive seen so called advantage players talk the talk and not play like they preach.

I agree. Misconceptions can easily co-exist with discipline. I try
to be as disciplined as I can and I've been at it for a long time, but
I still catch myself thinking such nonsensical things as "this machine
is running bad" when I know I should say "just ran."

#35

For a full time gambler it takes monumental discipline to stay away from the negative expectation bets. I'm inured to it, but it wasn't always that way. Boredom can be a huge factor. You'll have times where a positive play is not readily available. So what do you do? Some so called advantage gamblers call it "taking a shot." That's playing a negative expectation game and trying to get lucky. After getting my feathers singed I learned not to "take a shot." I'd rather be bored than broke.

It helps if one has live poker in their arsenal. That way you always have something to fall back on when a good machine play is not presently available. It's always a part of my equation. Should I be playing poker or should I be pounding on that machine play? If they both carry about the same hourly rate then I'm gonna go with the lower variance of poker.

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Tom Robertson <007@...> wrote:

dealt4oak wrote:

>Ive seen so called advantage players talk the talk and not play like >they preach.

#36

I really like this post of yours because it perfectly illustrates the exact same dynamics I talked about in the original post on heuristics.

Just like the air force instructors, here the casino employ has noticed something and his only flaw in thinking may be the direction of causation. He felt that casinos tighten machines when a jackpot gets high, without considering that a jackpot gets high because machines have been tight. "Have been tight" isn't the same thing as "are tight", but it's a distinction not all people can make.

It's perfectly normal on fair random machines for jackpots to to go long periods without being hit. Indeed, if this didn't happen we would be even more concerned about machines being truly random, since it's predicted by math.

What he seems to have fallen pray to is similar to what's known as the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy, where you fire at the side of a barn and then draw the target after you're done shooting. He's waiting until after a period where the machines have taken in an unusual amount of money without paying out a jackpot, hence the high progressive, and assumed that the reason the machines have taken in so much money is because the jackpot is high.

It's a very good example, thanks for your input. ~FK

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "casino_camper" <mac_mcclellan@...> wrote: Coming in late on this, but here's the most surprising one I've heard.

···

Several years ago we were in Reno and playing a $1 progressive 8/5 BP that was up over $6k. Sitting next to me was a guy I met the year before. He had previously been a blackjack dealer and he knew all the dealers at this place. He played correctly, and we talked about a few adjustments based on the level of the progressive.

He dropped about $500 and said he'd had enough for the night. I said something about it being expensive to chase these progressives and he replied "yeah, especially when they tighten them up as the jackpot gets higher". I thought he was joking and said "since you know so many people around here you should ask the fellow in the back room to flip the switch for you." "Oh no", he says, "they can't do it on individual players, they'd lose their gaming license, they just tighten the whole bank.". My jaw must have actually dropped open.

Why does he believe this? My best guess is that he remembers those big losses while chasing progressives. Also maybe the seed was planted in his mind by someone who he thought was knowledgeable.

Mac
www.CasinoCamper.com