In a message dated 7/21/2003 8:02:38 PM Pacific Standard Time,
vpFREE@yahoogroups.com writes:
Date: Mon, 21 Jul 2003 17:03:08 -0500 (EST)
From: "Ednar" <ednar@kconline.com>
Subject: RE: I beat the odds on NSUDI thought you might get a kick out of this. I believe it is VERY important
for people to see the balance. Every session will not a be a winner. You
must have an adequate bankroll to survive the swings. This is true
regardless of what "approach" of VP play you subscribe to.We are pretty disciplined and will only lose the bankroll session we take.
It is dissapointing to lose in long stretches but not too surpsiing. I
have run several simulations on Winpoker with NSUD .25 triple play and
found that our losses were on the low side but not the lowest (although
close). However I never had a simulation that showed me losing over $2000
which is where we were at our lowest point.I cannot imagine what teh downside must be for dollar ten plays. I am
certain daily losses nearing ten thousand would be very possible.
Occasionally play 4-6 hr sessions on $ 10-plays & probably worst session was
down about 5K.
However, do have a night burned into memory due to the streak that I was on.
It was late last year at the Venetian, playing for comps. Chose $5 JB for its
slightly better payback over $ five-play BP.
One hr, $16K of play, lost $4200. Tried 8 different machines (yeah you're
right machine-switching sure didn't make any difference). The 26% loss rate made
me wish that I'd played slots instead.
In for a penny, in for a pound. Went back later that night because those
machines "owed" me. Played for another 4-5 hrs, lost $7000, not one 4 of a kind.
First time ever that I've been a 5-figure loser. Misspoke earlier, should have
said those machines "owned" me.
Now I was "steaming" and went up to $10 JB figuring that this drought
couldn't last. Fortunately, I got 2 four-of-a-kinds & cut losses to $9K+.
Due to play, I had earned a lot of drawing tickets. The next day, I won the
drawing for $5K which cut losses in half.
After adding up all the little fractional advantages including drawing, CB &
something else I can't remember, the total was close to 0.5% positive if you
made no mistakes.
$ 5-play BP would have been friendlier as the swing most likely would have
been much smaller.
On $5 vp, I've gone 4 cycles without a RF so my luck has been bad (and maybe
my play too).
However, I subscribe to Jean's philosophy that I'm on one long session.
I don't spend any time on bankroll analysis because I believe (for long-term
players) that if you have to do this, you should step down a denomination or
two or stop gambling.
I do track how many RF4 misses that I have so that I can feel sorry for
myself & hopefully garner sympathy from my wife (will trade for one with more
empathy).
I don't agonize any more over how many std deviations it's been since I've
had a four-of-a-kind or four ducks.
Regarding bankroll analysis, I'll take some of that back because I guess I do
some of that. It's because of the games that I choose to play which are
normally lower-variance if the returns are close.
In any case, the only concrete relationship that I've found is that analysis
time is inversely related to playing time.
DISCLAIMER: statements above don't apply to occasional players, short-term
players, or players who believe in luck.
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