Exactly.
Dancer churns $20 million (I think he's used that number) and a coupla tenths of a percent is serious money. For $500,000 a year I can afford to play JOB with a little cashback and get great vacations for a small fraction of their real value to me. Anything better, from Super Double Bonus to NSUD to Double Bonus is gravy. And I enjoy the action.
···
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Elliott L. Shapiro wrote:
> All of this discussion has been interesting and I assume that it
> is a fun machine to play, but it is NOT a positive playIn these discussions, I sometimes get the idea that people make a
huge distinction between, say, an opportunity that returns 99.9% and
one that returns 100.1%. I can see that for someone who truly looks
at VP as profession, the distinction is important: once the
expectation goes above 100%, then & only then is there the
possibility of making a living from the game if sufficient cash is
put through.But for those of us who play recreationally, the difference between
99.9% EV and 100.1% may be no more significant than, say, the
difference between 99.5% and 99.7%. It's possible to attach
importance to the 100% figure in cases where it defies logic. For
many of us, 100% EV is no more magic than Dow 10,000.For myself: several times a year, I like to take little vacations, a
weekend or a long weekend, to various gambling spots. I usually go
with at least one friend. Say I find a casino that'll provide a nice
free room & food for $10K coin-in (between the two of us), and the
best return available is 99.9%. For my $5000/day, I can expect an
average loss of <$5.Considering the value I place on the weekend vacation, & considering
the long-term loss in relation to my total budget... it's simply a
trivial matter whether my expectation swings $10 or $20 a day. Yeah,
sure, it's more fun to tell people "I won $10" than "I lost $10" when
I get back from Vegas, but I know it really doesn't matter.So if I get a free deal from Barbary Coast, and it'll require putting
a few thousand dollars through a NSUD machine with .25% cashback, and
I know someone who will enjoy making the trip with me... I'm not for
a second going to consider turning it down over because the play is
negative EV.Yes, I'm reading Bob Dancer's book. I appreciate how professionals
need to squeeze out every bit of EV, & I appreciate how some others
enjoy seeking 100%+ opportunities for "the thrill of the hunt." But I
also think some people miss opportunities for enjoyment because
they're fixated on the "positive expectation" boogieman.Stuart (RandomStu)
http://home.comcast.net/~sresnick2/mypage.htmvpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm
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