vpFREE2 Forums

Positive ev at the big two

#1

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.
First off, vp is a hobby for me. It is something I can spend an infinite amount of time on (practicing, strategizing, actually gambling, etc. . .) with a positive correlation to the amount of enjoyment I get out of it. I live on the east coast in the bible belt, so the closest casino is about 5 hours away. My goal when on a gambling trip is not to pay the rent, but to at least have a 0 balance on the books when I’ve completed a gambling trip (with variance, that doesn’t happen most of the time, but at least you can calculate that you are playing a positive game when you take into account all the variables). When accounting for all those variables, I take into account the cost of the flight, usually to Vegas, hotel room, and food. With the opportunities in downtown Vegas, it is pretty easy to break even on paper. However, this is supposed to be fun, so a little change in the routine would be nice. I have a decent job, so I consider my bankroll as infinite, and I am comfortable playing at the $1 level, and maybe if I am feeling really frisky, I’ll risk a $2 or $5 machine.
Obviously playing at CET properties expands my possibilities throughout the US, and MGM properties gives more opportunities in Vegas. However, about all I can glean from message boards is how bad the comps at these properties are becoming and how it was so much better a couple of years ago. My questions are:

  1. Simply, accounting for freeplay and cashback to offset loses at a -ev game, is it possible to have a +ev at a CET property? How about a MGM property? I realize that there are alot of variables to this question (adts, time on machine) that could lead to many answers, but just knowing +ev is possible would make it worth a try. I know some people like to keep their plays to themselves (and that’s OK), but examples would be nice.
  2. How large is the variance in the amount of freeplay given at CET properties nationwide? E.g. will the same amount of play on a similar machine lead to the same amount of freeplay offers (at the respective properties) at Planet Hollywood vs. Harrah’s Tunica.
  3. If one expands on question #1 and takes into account other comps (food, show tickets, free stuff, etc. . .) does the play at MGM or CET properties become positive? For this question, I don’t include hotels as to me, this is easy enough to get. Can one achieve returns large enough to offset airfare (let’s say $400).
  4. Does anyone have experience with junkets to CET properties (or others) and how easy is it to get free trips?
    Thanks in advance for the conversations. Questions clarifying anything is appreciated.
#2

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.

If you’re playing that kind of money and you don’t want to be in
a Boyd property, try a stay at South Point. It is a newer, beautiful, casino and I have been treated well there. Sam’s Town is my base casino but only because I’ve been going there since the 70’s. South Point is much younger. Good luck

···

On Wednesday, March 5, 2014 5:33 PM, “fhbar…@…com” <fhbar…@…com> wrote:

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.
First off, vp is a hobby for me. It is something I can spend an infinite amount of time on (practicing, strategizing, actually gambling, etc. . .) with a positive correlation to the amount of enjoyment I get out of it. I live on the east coast in the bible belt, so the closest casino is about 5 hours away. My goal when on a gambling trip is not to pay the rent, but to at least have a 0 balance on the books when I’ve completed a gambling trip (with variance, that doesn’t happen most of the time, but at least you can calculate that you are playing a positive game when you take into account all the variables). When accounting for all those variables, I take into account the cost of the flight, usually to Vegas, hotel room, and food. With the opportunities in downtown Vegas, it is pretty easy to
break even on paper. However, this is supposed to be fun, so a little change in the routine would be nice. I have a decent job, so I consider my bankroll as infinite, and I am comfortable playing at the $1 level, and maybe if I am feeling really frisky, I’ll risk a $2 or $5 machine.
Obviously playing at CET properties expands my possibilities throughout the US, and MGM properties gives more opportunities in Vegas. However, about all I can glean from message boards is how bad the comps at these properties are becoming and how it was so much better a couple of years ago. My questions are:

  1. Simply, accounting for freeplay and cashback to offset loses at a -ev game, is it possible to have a +ev at a CET property? How about a MGM property? I realize that there are alot of variables to this question (adts, time on machine) that could lead to many answers, but just
    knowing +ev is possible would make it worth a try. I know some people like to keep their plays to themselves (and that’s OK), but examples would be nice.
  2. How large is the variance in the amount of freeplay given at CET properties nationwide? E.g. will the same amount of play on a similar machine lead to the same amount of freeplay offers (at the respective properties) at Planet Hollywood vs. Harrah’s Tunica.
  3. If one expands on question #1 and takes into account other comps (food, show tickets, free stuff, etc. . .) does the play at MGM or CET properties become positive? For this question, I don’t include hotels as to me, this is easy enough to get. Can one achieve returns large enough to offset airfare (let’s say $400).
  4. Does anyone have experience with junkets to CET properties (or others) and how easy is it to get free trips?
    Thanks
    in advance for the conversations. Questions clarifying anything is appreciated.
#3

I don’t think there’s a positive expectation at CET vegas properties unless you are playing on “special” days or get significant FP. Your best bet is to rent a car and expand horizons. Go to VPFREE2 and query the data base for vegas and laughlin.

Break a leg.
—In vpF…@…com, <fhbarneb@…> wrote :

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.
First off, vp is a hobby for me. It is something I can spend an infinite amount of time on (practicing, strategizing, actually gambling, etc. . .) with a positive correlation to the amount of enjoyment I get out of it. I live on the east coast in the bible belt, so the closest casino is about 5 hours away. My goal when on a gambling trip is not to pay the rent, but to at least have a 0 balance on the books when I’ve completed a gambling trip (with variance, that doesn’t happen most of the time, but at least you can calculate that you are playing a positive game when you take into account all the variables). When accounting for all those variables, I take into account the cost of the flight, usually to Vegas, hotel room, and food. With the opportunities in downtown Vegas, it is pretty easy to break even on paper. However, this is supposed to be fun, so a little change in the routine would be nice. I have a decent job, so I consider my bankroll as infinite, and I am comfortable playing at the $1 level, and maybe if I am feeling really frisky, I’ll risk a $2 or $5 machine.
Obviously playing at CET properties expands my possibilities throughout the US, and MGM properties gives more opportunities in Vegas. However, about all I can glean from message boards is how bad the comps at these properties are becoming and how it was so much better a couple of years ago. My questions are:

  1. Simply, accounting for freeplay and cashback to offset loses at a -ev game, is it possible to have a +ev at a CET property? How about a MGM property? I realize that there are alot of variables to this question (adts, time on machine) that could lead to many answers, but just knowing +ev is possible would make it worth a try. I know some people like to keep their plays to themselves (and that’s OK), but examples would be nice.
  2. How large is the variance in the amount of freeplay given at CET properties nationwide? E.g. will the same amount of play on a similar machine lead to the same amount of freeplay offers (at the respective properties) at Planet Hollywood vs. Harrah’s Tunica.
  3. If one expands on question #1 and takes into account other comps (food, show tickets, free stuff, etc. . .) does the play at MGM or CET properties become positive? For this question, I don’t include hotels as to me, this is easy enough to get. Can one achieve returns large enough to offset airfare (let’s say $400).
  4. Does anyone have experience with junkets to CET properties (or others) and how easy is it to get free trips?
    Thanks in advance for the conversations. Questions clarifying anything is appreciated.
#4

South Point has a policy about not comping winning players.

···

From: James Mcgrath <azkidshel…@…com>
To: “vpF…@…com” <vpF…@…com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 5, 2014 9:40:56 PM
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Positive ev at the big two

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.

If you’re playing that kind of money and you don’t want to be in
a Boyd property, try a stay at South Point. It is a newer, beautiful, casino and I have been treated well there. Sam’s Town is my base casino but only because I’ve been going there since the 70’s. South Point is much younger. Good luck

On Wednesday, March 5, 2014 5:33 PM, “fhbar…@…com” <fhbar…@…com> wrote:

Hi folks, long time listener, first time caller. Apologies for what may become a long rambling post.
First off, vp is a hobby for me. It is something I can spend an infinite amount of time on (practicing, strategizing, actually gambling, etc. . .) with a positive correlation to the amount of enjoyment I get out of it. I live on the east coast in the bible belt, so the closest casino is about 5 hours away. My goal when on a gambling trip is not to pay the rent, but to at least have a 0 balance on the books when I’ve completed a gambling trip (with variance, that doesn’t happen most of the time, but at least you can calculate that you are playing a positive game when you take into account all the variables). When accounting for all those variables, I take into account the cost of the flight, usually to Vegas, hotel room, and food. With the opportunities in downtown Vegas, it is pretty easy to
break even on paper. However, this is supposed to be fun, so a little change in the routine would be nice. I have a decent job, so I consider my bankroll as infinite, and I am comfortable playing at the $1 level, and maybe if I am feeling really frisky, I’ll risk a $2 or $5 machine.
Obviously playing at CET properties expands my possibilities throughout the US, and MGM properties gives more opportunities in Vegas. However, about all I can glean from message boards is how bad the comps at these properties are becoming and how it was so much better a couple of years ago. My questions are:

  1. Simply, accounting for freeplay and cashback to offset loses at a -ev game, is it possible to have a +ev at a CET property? How about a MGM property? I realize that there are alot of variables to this question (adts, time on machine) that could lead to many answers, but just
    knowing +ev is possible would make it worth a try. I know some people like to keep their plays to themselves (and that’s OK), but examples would be nice.
  2. How large is the variance in the amount of freeplay given at CET properties nationwide? E.g. will the same amount of play on a similar machine lead to the same amount of freeplay offers (at the respective properties) at Planet Hollywood vs. Harrah’s Tunica.
  3. If one expands on question #1 and takes into account other comps (food, show tickets, free stuff, etc. . .) does the play at MGM or CET properties become positive? For this question, I don’t include hotels as to me, this is easy enough to get. Can one achieve returns large enough to offset airfare (let’s say $400).
  4. Does anyone have experience with junkets to CET properties (or others) and how easy is it to get free trips?
    Thanks
    in advance for the conversations. Questions clarifying anything is appreciated.
#5

We get free rooms at S.P. and have been winners more than losers. The rooms are nice.

Never have asked for any other comps. No need to with their reasonable food prices.

We don’t plan our trips to be there on double point days.

The FPSDB and .25% cb/fp provides a fair bet but won’t pay the stipulated $400 airfare. OTOH, the joint provides a free shuttle to/from the airport.

Our bi-monthly trips from the east coast are presently focused on Main Street Station (FPDB, $200 free play.and scratch cards). My wife likes MSS rooms and getting the silver card. Laughlin Aquarius (FPDB progressive, $300 FP and food comp’d Outback, Cafe and Buffet). My wife likes the room which has a separate bedroom.

LVH $400 FP but have to play 99% games. My wife likes the Lanai rooms we get. Then we will end our trip at SP. We will check-in and I will return the car alone and take the public bus back to SP from the car rental center. Shuttle brings us to the airport when we leave.

SP has taken the place of GVR as no longer welcome there. CET or MGM properties are way down the scale of fair bet joints. Forghat about it!

#6

Many thanks for the replies. My current “affair” is mainly with the downtown Body properties so it looks like I’ve settled on a pretty good bet. Haven’t made to to Sam’s Town or the Orleans yet, may have to try to make it there. I’ve also looked at the South Point. I would probably want to play NSUD, which I am not proficient at so I would have to brush up. I wonder if South Point’s policy of not comping winners applies to out-of-towners the same as locals? Looks like I have some “work” to do.

I guess I would refine my question(s) to - if you think you are getting positive ev with total rewards or mlife, why do you think so? E.g. I played 50000 coin-in on a 98.5% machine at Harrahs, I would expect to loose $750 but I got diamond status, which gives me a $100 dining credit plus show tickets worth $100 plus $100 in free-play, plus offers for free junkets to tunica, plus access to diamond lounges, plus. . . . which I believe adds up to more than $750 . . I don’t know how close I am to reality with this scenario, just trying to get a feel for these rewards programs before I would start playing them.

Thanks again.

#7

I am an out of towner , and I was told by a host at the Southpoint that food comps are based on your losses, although they will comp you a room upfront.

···

From: “fhbar…@…com” <fhbar…@…com>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Wednesday, March 5, 2014 11:45:31 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Positive ev at the big two

Many thanks for the replies. My current “affair” is mainly with the downtown Body properties so it looks like I’ve settled on a pretty good bet. Haven’t made to to Sam’s Town or the Orleans yet, may have to try to make it there. I’ve also looked at the South Point. I would probably want to play NSUD, which I am not proficient at so I would have to brush up. I wonder if South Point’s policy of not comping winners applies to out-of-towners the same as locals? Looks like I have some “work” to do.

I guess I would refine my question(s) to - if you think you are getting positive ev with total rewards or mlife, why do you think so? E.g. I played 50000 coin-in on a 98.5% machine at Harrahs, I would expect to loose $750 but I got diamond status, which gives me a $100 dining credit plus show tickets worth $100 plus $100 in free-play, plus offers for free junkets to
tunica, plus access to diamond lounges, plus. . . . which I believe adds up to more than $750 . . I don’t know how close I am to reality with this scenario, just trying to get a feel for these rewards programs before I would start playing them.

Thanks again.

#8

fhbarneb wrote: “I have a decent job, so I consider my bankroll as infinite”

Unless you are the Chairman of the Fed, that’s a really, really bad assumption to make.

gamblersanonymous.com