I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
poker math
It a very simple equation and you should memories it.
C = 1-(P-1/P) to the power of N
So 46.3 - 1 = 45.3
1-(45.3 / 46.3) ^ 500 = 99.99% chance of hitting at least 1.
If as you say, you didn't get one in 1.5 hours, it's a media event. Perhaps the third most unlikely thing every to happen.
If you were wondering what the 1st and 2ond most unlikely things were, the answer is: Just Coincidences.
~FK
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@...> wrote:
I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
Thanks. So, for that hour and half, I was either the most unlucky person to walk that planet for quite some time or I had a serious fault with my perception of time, my attention to whether I actually got dealt trips, or both. I guess I will have to go with "both."
Is there a name given to that formula so I may read up on it?
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
It a very simple equation and you should memories it.
C = 1-(P-1/P) to the power of N
So 46.3 - 1 = 45.3
1-(45.3 / 46.3) ^ 500 = 99.99% chance of hitting at least 1.
If as you say, you didn't get one in 1.5 hours, it's a media event. Perhaps the third most unlikely thing every to happen.
If you were wondering what the 1st and 2ond most unlikely things were, the answer is: Just Coincidences.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@> wrote:
>
> I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
>
The probability of not receiving dealt trips is 1-(1/46.3). Since hands are
independent, the probability of not receiving dealt trips in two hands is
the square of this value, in the three hands is the cube of this value, and
so on. So assuming hands, I get the odds to be 167565075937230.
···
On Sat, Mar 26, 2011 at 9:56 AM, Jeff McDaniel <jmcdaniel@dmtechlaw.com>wrote:
I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations
correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3
hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an
hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt
trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the
proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a
website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation
myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
Thanks much. So, just to make sure I got this right:
If I played 100 hands, it is about 8.9 to 1 against me not getting dealt trips (i.e., about 11.3% of the time I won't get dealt trips in 100 hands).
If I played 250 hands, it is about 234.8 to 1 against me not getting dealt trips (i.e., about 0.4% of the time I won't get dealt trips in 250 hands).
--and--
If I played 500 hands, it is about 55,130.8 to 1 against me not getting dealt trips (i.e., about 0.00002% of the time I won't get dealt trips in 500 hands).
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@...> wrote:
The probability of not receiving dealt trips is 1-(1/46.3). Since hands are
independent, the probability of not receiving dealt trips in two hands is
the square of this value, in the three hands is the cube of this value, and
so on. So assuming hands, I get the odds to be 167565075937230.On Sat, Mar 26, 2011 at 9:56 AM, Jeff McDaniel <jmcdaniel@...>wrote:
>
>
> I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations
> correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3
> hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an
> hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt
> trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the
> proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a
> website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation
> myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
>
>
>[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
In my book it's entitled "C = 1-(P-1/P) to the power of N". as a joke.
I also emphatically state the "Tahoe" is a Washoe Indian word which in the native tung means, "Tahoe"...most people don't get the humor.
I've been using that equation for so long I can't remember for SURE what's it is called. I believe it's part of binomial theorem. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.
I do remember the first person to teach me the formula was Elliot Shapiro, one of the original Team Scouts that was already on the team when I started at 21. He passed a few years back. He certainly knew his stuff.
I'd like to make a very important point. As a team scout (or player) I had no one putting a gun to my head to learn equations like this...but mindlessly following the lead of other people that could do the math was not something I could tolerate. A desire to learn all you can about anything one is engaged in, is an absolutely indispensable trait for pulling ahead in your field and for pro gambling in particular.
This is one of the reasons I included MATH in my book. The BEST opportunities in gambling will always be things no one has yet figured out. Any book on gambling will mostly be about things the author has already figured out. That's why I wanted to include the tools one needs to deduce things that did not yet exist at the time of it's publishing.
Cheers,
~FK
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@...> wrote:
Thanks. So, for that hour and half, I was either the most unlucky person to walk that planet for quite some time or I had a serious fault with my perception of time, my attention to whether I actually got dealt trips, or both. I guess I will have to go with "both."
Is there a name given to that formula so I may read up on it?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@> wrote:
>
> It a very simple equation and you should memories it.
>
> C = 1-(P-1/P) to the power of N
>
> So 46.3 - 1 = 45.3
>
> 1-(45.3 / 46.3) ^ 500 = 99.99% chance of hitting at least 1.
>
> If as you say, you didn't get one in 1.5 hours, it's a media event. Perhaps the third most unlikely thing every to happen.
>
> If you were wondering what the 1st and 2ond most unlikely things were, the answer is: Just Coincidences.
>
> ~FK
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@> wrote:
> >
> > I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
> >
>
BIG COMPLEMENT to Jeff
If I still had a Team I'd hire you in one second flat based solely on this one email. The fact that you included your perceptions in your estimation of probability tells me you have the right mindset to go far.
If we disclude physical requirements, there is no single element more important than a clear unbiased mind to do well as a gambler.
The fact that you realized that your perception of the event could have been the source of the seemingly impossible probability, impresses me to no end. Good on you mate!!!
~FK
P.S. If anyone would like to see just how flawed and limited human perception is, I recommend going to the Exploratorium in San Francisco. They have a whole wing devoted to perception flaws. You'll never look at the world the same again.
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@...> wrote:
Thanks. So, for that hour and half, I was either the most unlucky person to walk that planet for quite some time or I had a serious fault with my perception of time, my attention to whether I actually got dealt trips, or both. I guess I will have to go with "both."
jmcdaniel wrote:
If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands.
---I get 47.3 as follows: pick the rank (13 possible), pick 3 of the 4 cards of that rank (4 possible), pick 2 of the 12 other ranks to complete the hand (12 * 11/2 = 66 possible), pick 1 of the 4 cards of one rank (4 possible), and lastly, pick 1 of the 4 cards of the other rank (4 possible)...multiply together to get 54,912 possible dealt hands that contain three of a kind (but not a full house or quads). Divide 2,598,960 by 54,912 to get about 47.3.
···
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jmcdaniel later wrote:
...I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials.
---You can use the binomial distribution to calculate (Excel has this too). You want to know the probability of 1 success in 1500 trials with the probability p of a success equal to 54,912/2,598,960, and with q = 1-p.
P(1 dealt trip in 1500 hands)
= C(1500, 1) * p^1 * q^(1500-1)
~4 X 10^(-13), or about 1 in 2.5 trillion (back-to-back dealt royals would be 6 times as likely)
jmcdaniel also wrote:
Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution
http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/binom.htm