vpFREE2 Forums

play log

#1

I have been tracking my play at the local Detroit casinos. I'll post the file ( or more accurately, ask the Admin to post it) soon but thought I would share some of the results.

As Greektown, I have been playing the single line, quarter NSUD. With cashback and base return, it's 99.9%. Throw in some bounceback ( still trying to figure out the rate), comps and an occassional drawing, and it's okay as a rec play.

After playing 18199 hands, I am down $55.25 ( game only ) for a return of 99.7574%. Expected return is 99.73%.

After going 0 for 23 on three deuces dealt, I hit quad deuces twice in a row. I have a less than average occurrence of all hands SF and above except deuces. The deuces have occurred 2.6 times more than expected.

Session length is variable and I have not hit a royal flush yet.

What this all tells me is that the big hands ( deuces and the royal) are the overwhelming determining factor in your results. There's nothing earth shaking in that. Also, only a couple very short sessions ( 500 hands ) are positive without hitting deuces.

Every hand type in video poker is a normally distributed function with different frequencies. Due the weighting of the results ( paytable) we get a decidely non normal distribution for less than a million hands. Again, nothing earth shattering. I'd venture that if you were playing 9/6 JOB and told me how many hands you played and how many royals you hit, I could take a pretty good guess at your results, if you played at least 40,000 hands.

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#2

greeklandjohnny wrote:

I'd venture that if you were playing 9/6 JOB and told me how many
hands you played and how many royals you hit, I could take a pretty
good guess at your results, if you played at least 40,000 hands.

No question. But that guess would have to cut a reasonably broad swath of deviation to encompass my last 40K hands of JB trip play (actual play 44.4k hands).

With no royals, on $1 machine play I've seen an $11.2K loss.

#3

Harry,

I would have missed that one :). If you keep track for the next 160K hands and add it to your 44K hand result, I'll bet my guess will much closer.

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:

greeklandjohnny wrote:
> I'd venture that if you were playing 9/6 JOB and told me how many
> hands you played and how many royals you hit, I could take a pretty
> good guess at your results, if you played at least 40,000 hands.

No question. But that guess would have to cut a reasonably broad swath of deviation to encompass my last 40K hands of JB trip play (actual play 44.4k hands).

With no royals, on $1 machine play I've seen an $11.2K loss.

#4

9/6 JOB without the royal is about -2.5% and 3.5 variance. You'd have to guess at an error rate, let's guess 0.5% (those little errors and stuck keys and reflective glare and waitress distractions add up). So, that makes it a -3% and 3.5 variance game. So, -3% of 40,000 is -1,200 bets. 2SD is 2sqrt(variance x hands) equals about 750 bets. So, you're looking at a range of -1,950 to -450 bets or -$9,750 to -$2,250 on dollar five coin about 95% (2SD) of the time. There's still 2.5% of black swans. Multiplays add another wrinkle, short term volatility is larger due to the effect of dealt hand returns. Dealt quads are usually most significant. Also, this is assuming a normal distribution, which is an approximation, and probably introduces another 0.5% or so error rate to the numbers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "johnnyzee48127" <greeklandjohnny@...> wrote:

Harry,

I would have missed that one :). If you keep track for the next 160K hands and add it to your 44K hand result, I'll bet my guess will much closer.

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@> wrote:
>
> greeklandjohnny wrote:
> > I'd venture that if you were playing 9/6 JOB and told me how many
> > hands you played and how many royals you hit, I could take a pretty
> > good guess at your results, if you played at least 40,000 hands.
>
> No question. But that guess would have to cut a reasonably broad swath of deviation to encompass my last 40K hands of JB trip play (actual play 44.4k hands).
>
> With no royals, on $1 machine play I've seen an $11.2K loss.
>

#5

Where are the NSUD at Greektown?

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--- In vpFREE_Detroit@yahoogroups.com, greeklandjohnny@... wrote:

As Greektown, I have been playing the single line, quarter NSUD. With cashback and base return, it's 99.9%. Throw in some bounceback ( still trying to figure out the rate), comps and an occassional drawing, and it's okay as a rec play.

#6

They are down the hall or aisle to the area that says ECLIPZ bar/lounge.

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--- In vpFREE_Detroit@yahoogroups.com, "bicasbury@..." <bicasbury@...> wrote:

Where are the NSUD at Greektown?

--- In vpFREE_Detroit@yahoogroups.com, greeklandjohnny@ wrote:

> As Greektown, I have been playing the single line, quarter NSUD. With cashback and base return, it's 99.9%. Throw in some bounceback ( still trying to figure out the rate), comps and an occassional drawing, and it's okay as a rec play.