Excuse me Bill, but I thought he said a sequential RF, not just a T-A.
Therefore, if he is including the other sequence of A-T, then his figures are probably correct.
The only machines this ever mattered on were the progrssives that paid different amounts for the two sequences.
Otherwise, the payouts on the progressive that used this tactic were one amount for a RF and another for any sequential RF.
···
----- Original Message -----
From: weharter
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, August 30, 2007 7:25 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: PICTURE: $4,000 - $1 Dealt Sequential RF
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "byrneboom" <bgiven@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vpFae" <vpFae@> wrote:
> >
> > spow518 wrote:
> >
> > > What casino was the royal at?
> >
> > Undisclosed by the player.
> >
> > vpFae
> >
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> I calculated the odds of being dealt a sequential royal at
38,984,400.
> Can anyone confirm this to be accurate? My math - total possible
> combinations of any hand in sequential order
52*51*50*49*48=311,875,200
> divided by total combinations of sequential royals(8)
>
You're off by about a factor of 2. A dealt sequential royal has a
probability of .00000000012826, which if you invert it comes out to
be 1 in 77,968,800. I would guess this is a once in a lifetime event
for most VP players.
This is how you get the probability (you can use MS Excel to do this
easily).
There are 2,598,960 possible 5 card starting hands in a 52 card deck
[combin(52,5) in Excel] where order doesn't matter, i.e.,
combinations. Only 4 of these are RF. So, the probability of a RF
on the deal is 4/2,598,960 (or 1 out of 649,740).
For a sequential RF, order does matter. There are 120 different ways
to order 5 cards [permut(5,5) in Excel]. Only 1 of these ways will
be the T-A sequential RF. So, the probability of a T-A sequential RF
is 1/120.
To get the probability of a dealt, sequential T-A RF you just
multiply the two probabilities which is 4/311,875,200 or 1/77,968,800.
Combinations versus permutations can sometimes be confusing. Just
remember that order doesn't matter in combinations (which is the case
in VP) and order does matter in permutations.
Hope this helps.
Bill
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