vpFREE2 Forums

Pickum versus JOB

#1

Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being lowered, I
don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play 120,000
hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should hit one
pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both games
should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34% return
for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would be 2460
more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and higher
shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't see any
real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?

Mel

#2

Mel,
Regardless of Royal variance, $600K action/year produces $6K/year theo
per 1% offered by casino management = $6K/year x .2%?? returned as
comps et al = $1,200/year/one percent/theo x 2 percent theo differential
= $2,400/year in additional comps. For machines at 3 percent
differetial = $3,600/year. For machines with 1 percent differential =
$1,200/year
Hypothesis
JB is better for gamblers at 2% differential. The good news is both are
offered to patrons as a fair bet for risking large amounts of money. It
competes with other plays at other Venues. I much prefer the SUN to
Atlantic City.
Never been back to the South since my "Easy Rider" days:-)
I am still willing to fly to Vegas even for a long weekend when good
$$$ offers are received but do miss our Gold status on US Airways.
I should visit Foxwoods as they are now offering some interesting
local "plays."
Bottomline
Seems like both games are a smart business decision by Sun management.
Competition is Wonderful
haaljo in Boston

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom" <mel3dmd@...>
wrote:

Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being lowered,

I

don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play 120,000
hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should hit

one

pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both games
should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34% return
for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would be

2460

more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and higher
shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't see

any

···

real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?

Mel

#3
#4

My Wife got a $1 Mohegan Pickem Royal in 2003.
It was when the $ machines were on right side.
I got a 25 cent royal in AC maybe in 2000? Wow.
Not one at Las Vegas Hilton and played many hands.

We're three cycles behind but that's just the law of big numbers.
Wife is way ahead in tournaments- winning 2 out of about 100 entered.
Look at Jean Scott. She's having a bad year last year. Then Brad and
her win $250,000 at Caesar's tournament ($500K win divided by two
couples). Homer Simpson Groan.

I know one of the VPFree NewEngland members have gotten more than
expected. Let's hear the good news.
haaljo in Boston

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@...> wrote:

---
I was wondering how many of use have hit pickim royals. My wife and

I

have never hit one.
Mel

>
> Mel,
> Regardless of Royal variance, $600K action/year produces $6K/year
theo
> per 1% offered by casino management = $6K/year x .2%?? returned as
> comps et al = $1,200/year/one percent/theo x 2 percent theo
differential
> = $2,400/year in additional comps. For machines at 3 percent
> differetial = $3,600/year. For machines with 1 percent

differential

=
> $1,200/year
> Hypothesis
> JB is better for gamblers at 2% differential. The good news is

both

are
> offered to patrons as a fair bet for risking large amounts of
money. It
> competes with other plays at other Venues. I much prefer the SUN

to

> Atlantic City.
> Never been back to the South since my "Easy Rider" days:-)
> I am still willing to fly to Vegas even for a long weekend when

good

> $$$ offers are received but do miss our Gold status on US Airways.
> I should visit Foxwoods as they are now offering some interesting
> local "plays."
> Bottomline
> Seems like both games are a smart business decision by Sun
management.
> Competition is Wonderful
> haaljo in Boston
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being
lowered,
> I
> > don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play
120,000
> > hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should
hit
> one
> > pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both
games
> > should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34%
return
> > for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would

be

···

In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "haaljo" <haaljo@> wrote:
> 2460
> > more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and
higher
> > shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't
see
> any
> > real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?
> >
> > Mel
> >
>

#5

I have hit 2, and my wife hasn't hit any.

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@...> wrote:

---
I was wondering how many of use have hit pickim royals. My wife and

I

have never hit one.
Mel

>
> Mel,
> Regardless of Royal variance, $600K action/year produces $6K/year
theo
> per 1% offered by casino management = $6K/year x .2%?? returned as
> comps et al = $1,200/year/one percent/theo x 2 percent theo
differential
> = $2,400/year in additional comps. For machines at 3 percent
> differetial = $3,600/year. For machines with 1 percent

differential

=
> $1,200/year
> Hypothesis
> JB is better for gamblers at 2% differential. The good news is

both

are
> offered to patrons as a fair bet for risking large amounts of
money. It
> competes with other plays at other Venues. I much prefer the SUN

to

> Atlantic City.
> Never been back to the South since my "Easy Rider" days:-)
> I am still willing to fly to Vegas even for a long weekend when

good

> $$$ offers are received but do miss our Gold status on US Airways.
> I should visit Foxwoods as they are now offering some interesting
> local "plays."
> Bottomline
> Seems like both games are a smart business decision by Sun
management.
> Competition is Wonderful
> haaljo in Boston
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@>
> wrote:
> >
> > Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being
lowered,
> I
> > don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play
120,000
> > hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should
hit
> one
> > pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both
games
> > should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34%
return
> > for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would

be

···

In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "haaljo" <haaljo@> wrote:
> 2460
> > more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and
higher
> > shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't
see
> any
> > real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?
> >
> > Mel
> >
>

#6

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@...>
wrote:

Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being

lowered,
I

don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play

120,000

hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should hit

one

pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both

games

should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34%

return

for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would be

2460

more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and

higher

shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't see

any

real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?

Mel

You have a point, but it applies to a certain segment of our
population. Choosing the best game to play in a casino, including
table games, is a much more difficult and complex decision than the
unassuming realizes. Your reasoning applies mostly to those whose
theo is between 400 and 2000 and primarily in the lower end of that
range. Much below 400, you don't get much of anything, you can't
even get in the lounge, and your free tickets are mostly those
private player's club only shows; so raising your theo from 200 to
250 is not going to do much. As you approach 2000, the law of
diminishing returns applies, and you gradually get comped out as you
get all your free rooms and 4 free "A" tickets to every show. (EG.
They are not going to give you 20 free tickets to a show and 5 free
rooms/night just because your theo is 10000.)

Another factor is you still need a moderate amount of hands to make
the JoB worthwhile; it's essential to hit that Royal now and then
since it comprises 2% of the return, but still only occurs an average
of 40,000 hands. Otherwise, you're 2.5% down. In Pick'Em, you never
need to hit a Royal. And if you never hit a SF, you're still batting
over 99%, and making 1.11% in points. You do have to hit quads. As
you've seen, Cathy has had trouble hitting an everyday 4oaK (which
has a cycle of 2360), and that has kept her from playing the game. I
myself, in dollar PKM, took over five cycles to hit a 4oaK, and then
I averaged out much later. Now imagine if someone goes five Royal
cycles without hitting one in JoB who is only a casual player; he'd
be down $25000 on a dollar game.

However, there is quite a large segment of players who do fall into
the category of having theos around 500, who are moderate players,
who have enough of a bankroll to weather bumps in the road, who enjoy
the marketing offers, that would benefit from sacrificing a little EV
for the additional theo.

#7

--- Steve,
I agree with you to a point also. Dori and I have never hit a pickum
royal but have already hit 4 JOB royals this year. I am sure with all
our play in Vegas and MS we are over royaled. Getting a 2000 theo
playing just pickum is not easy becasue the game is slow. I can do
that in less than 6 hours playing JOB. It would take both of us
playing on one card to get to 2000 on pickum. Playing JOB I am above
2000 and she is about 1300 so all the perks we get from her play
would not exist if we played only pickum. Her marketing offers are
worth more than 800 a year. Also I find pickum boring after an
hour .Just another way to look at it.
Mel

In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "steviemcc1" <steviemcc1@...>
wrote:

--- In vpFREE_NewEngland@yahoogroups.com, "mel3dmdmsncom"
<mel3dmd@>
wrote:
>
> Here is a thought to ponder. If the theo on pickum is being
lowered,
I
> don't see any advantage of playing them over JOB. If you play
120,000
> hands a year and hit royals according to statistics, you should

hit

one
> pickum royal every three years. Therefore, the return from both
games
> should be the same for 2 out of three years (removing the .34%
return
> for 2 of the years). The other year your expected return would be
2460
> more or 820 a year. With the additional marketing offers, and
higher
> shopping cards, better show tickets, better give aways I don't

see

any
> real advantage to pickum. Anyone agree or disagree?
>
> Mel
>

You have a point, but it applies to a certain segment of our
population. Choosing the best game to play in a casino, including
table games, is a much more difficult and complex decision than the
unassuming realizes. Your reasoning applies mostly to those whose
theo is between 400 and 2000 and primarily in the lower end of that
range. Much below 400, you don't get much of anything, you can't
even get in the lounge, and your free tickets are mostly those
private player's club only shows; so raising your theo from 200 to
250 is not going to do much. As you approach 2000, the law of
diminishing returns applies, and you gradually get comped out as

you

get all your free rooms and 4 free "A" tickets to every show. (EG.
They are not going to give you 20 free tickets to a show and 5 free
rooms/night just because your theo is 10000.)

Another factor is you still need a moderate amount of hands to make
the JoB worthwhile; it's essential to hit that Royal now and then
since it comprises 2% of the return, but still only occurs an

average

of 40,000 hands. Otherwise, you're 2.5% down. In Pick'Em, you

never

need to hit a Royal. And if you never hit a SF, you're still

batting

over 99%, and making 1.11% in points. You do have to hit quads.

As

you've seen, Cathy has had trouble hitting an everyday 4oaK (which
has a cycle of 2360), and that has kept her from playing the game.

I

myself, in dollar PKM, took over five cycles to hit a 4oaK, and

then

I averaged out much later. Now imagine if someone goes five Royal
cycles without hitting one in JoB who is only a casual player; he'd
be down $25000 on a dollar game.

However, there is quite a large segment of players who do fall into
the category of having theos around 500, who are moderate players,
who have enough of a bankroll to weather bumps in the road, who

enjoy

the marketing offers, that would benefit from sacrificing a little

EV

···

for the additional theo.