About bankroll. Without getting into serious math, if one uses a rough
estimate of 3- 5 royals for DW, DB, DDB, JB etc.. What rule of thumb
would one use for Pick-em since the royal is so rare? Would one use
the straight flush value? Just curious.
"Pick-em question"
I would suggest you stick to the 3-5 regular royals (12,000-20,000
coins) very rough estimate.
With a little bit of math you can get a much better estimate:
kelly bankroll (~11%ror)= variance/(er-1+cashback) bets
for example, pick'em + 0.5% cashback:
15/(.9995-1+.005)=3333 bets = 16,665 coins on 5 coins max bet
With a little bit more math you can get an exact answer:
solve for R(1), for pick'em + 0.5% cashback I get:
R(1)=0.999348, ror=R(1)^bankroll, for bankroll of 3333 bets,
ror=0.999348^3333=0.1137=11.37% (pretty close to kelly bankroll
estimate)
About bankroll. Without getting into serious math, if one uses a
rough
estimate of 3- 5 royals for DW, DB, DDB, JB etc.. What rule of
thumb
would one use for Pick-em since the royal is so rare? Would one
use
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "amarek1402" <amarek1402@c...> wrote:
the straight flush value? Just curious.
Thanks for the info. A little too much into math for me. I'm just an old fogey and I don't want to torture my brain anymore than necessary.
···
----- Original Message -----
From: nightoftheiguana2000
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, April 26, 2005 12:42 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: "Pick-em question"
I would suggest you stick to the 3-5 regular royals (12,000-20,000
coins) very rough estimate.
With a little bit of math you can get a much better estimate:
kelly bankroll (~11%ror)= variance/(er-1+cashback) bets
for example, pick'em + 0.5% cashback:
15/(.9995-1+.005)=3333 bets = 16,665 coins on 5 coins max bet
With a little bit more math you can get an exact answer:
solve for R(1), for pick'em + 0.5% cashback I get:
R(1)=0.999348, ror=R(1)^bankroll, for bankroll of 3333 bets,
ror=0.999348^3333=0.1137=11.37% (pretty close to kelly bankroll
estimate)
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "amarek1402" <amarek1402@c...> wrote:
>
>
> About bankroll. Without getting into serious math, if one uses a
rough
> estimate of 3- 5 royals for DW, DB, DDB, JB etc.. What rule of
thumb
> would one use for Pick-em since the royal is so rare? Would one
use
> the straight flush value? Just curious.
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