In Pick Em, is it more likely to get quads by having two of a kind
and getting the last two on the draw or having three and getting the
last one on the draw? Not sure how to figure this out.
Keith
Pick Em quads
kls6792 wrote:
In Pick Em, is it more likely to get quads by having two of a kind
and getting the last two on the draw or having three and getting the
last one on the draw? Not sure how to figure this out.
Keith
I'd be interested in seeing that one worked out.
It's going to take a software program that carefully evaluates all
related holds. The lynchpin will be determining the frequency with
which you hold a pair (two of a kind) when it's dealt. All the other
variables are clear cut.
- Harry
In Pick Em, is it more likely to get quads by having two of a kind
and getting the last two on the draw or having three and getting
the
last one on the draw? Not sure how to figure this out.
Keith
Based on a quick logical approach, there should be more Quads
starting with 3 of a kind.
If Q represents the quad rank and x represents any of the other 12
ranks, and the first grouping is the first 2 cards, the second is
the top card of the chosen pile and the third is the hidden 2 cards,
you can get quads stating w trips as follows:
QQ Q Qx and
QQ Q xQ
There are 12 xs in the first listing and 12 in the second, and each
has 2 posibilities as the Q in the middle can be in the third or 4th
position. Therefore 48 posibilities.
For quads dealt a pair the possibilities are:
QQ x QQ and [12 (would be 24 if could guess pile 100% accurately)]
Qx Q QQ [12]
xQ Q QQ [12]
Thus only 36 chances for a 50/50 guesser. In addtion the poison
deals of
QQ Qx and QQ xQ for pairs will occur much more frequently than the
poison deal for trips of QQ QQ.
David
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls6792" <klsechler@a...> wrote:
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "d_richheimer" <d_richheimer@y...>
wrote:
>
> In Pick Em, is it more likely to get quads by having two of a
kind
> and getting the last two on the draw or having three and getting
the
> last one on the draw? Not sure how to figure this out.
>
> KeithBased on a quick logical approach, there should be more Quads
starting with 3 of a kind.
If Q represents the quad rank and x represents any of the other 12
ranks, and the first grouping is the first 2 cards, the second is
the top card of the chosen pile and the third is the hidden 2
cards,
you can get quads stating w trips as follows:
QQ Q Qx and
QQ Q xQThere are 12 xs in the first listing and 12 in the second, and each
has 2 posibilities as the Q in the middle can be in the third or
4th
position. Therefore 48 posibilities.
For quads dealt a pair the possibilities are:
QQ x QQ and [12 (would be 24 if could guess pile 100%
accurately)]
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls6792" <klsechler@a...> wrote:
Qx Q QQ [12]
xQ Q QQ [12]Thus only 36 chances for a 50/50 guesser. In addtion the poison
deals of
QQ Qx and QQ xQ for pairs will occur much more frequently than the
poison deal for trips of QQ QQ.David
======================
But there are many more hands where you have some combination of a
pair and another card since the other card can be in any of the first
three positions. There are only a few starting hands where the first
three cards are three of a kind. I've just started playing the game
and have had 4 quads, 2 of each kind. My off the top of the head
guess was there would be more starting with a pair and getting the
second pair as the last two cards.
Keith
Frequency of (dealt quads in P'em, therefore useless) is 1 in 20825,
or 1 in every 8.8 quads; at 800 hph, 1 in 26 hours.
Frequency of (P'em quad) is 1 in 2361, among them, there are
slightly more (by 21%) quads starting from pairs:
the ratio of (quads starting from pairs) to (quads starting from
trips) is 29 to 24, or roughly 1.21 to 1.
The frequency of (quads starting from pairs) is 1 in 4318, the
frequency of (quads starting from trips) is 1 in 5208.
Methodolgy:
The frequency of (quads starting from trips) is easy to get because
the optimal strategy is to always hold all 3-of -a -kinds WHENEVER
IT'S PHYSICALLY POSSIBLE TO DO SO.
From there, instead of trying to figure out the frequency of the
(quads starting from pairs), I cheated and simply made the
observation that the reciprocals of these two numbers must add up to
1/2361.
The above was previously posted in vpFREE message #27176.
L.Wluiki
In Pick Em, is it more likely to get quads by having two of a kind
and getting the last two on the draw or having three and getting
the
···
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "kls6792" <klsechler@a...> wrote:
last one on the draw? Not sure how to figure this out.
Keith
lwluiki wrote:
From there, instead of trying to figure out the frequency of the
(quads starting from pairs), I cheated and simply made the
observation that the reciprocals of these two numbers must add up to
1/2361.
Hey, that's no fun! (kicking myself because it hadn't occurred to me
to do so 
Nice work!
- Harry
I've gotten dealt 4of a kinds in pickem, and its enough to make you scream.
Ned C.
The Wild Joker
···
lwluiki <lwluiki@accessbee.com> wrote:
Frequency of (dealt quads in P'em, therefore useless) is 1 in 20825,
or 1 in every 8.8 quads; at 800 hph, 1 in 26 hours.
---------------------------------
Do you Yahoo!?
Yahoo! Mail - Helps protect you from nasty viruses.
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]