vpFREE2 Forums

Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

#1

Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here’s my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks
-Eric

#2

For the infinite RoR, a powerful formula is here and one can use a spreadsheet to solve it:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm

Using this formula you get the following results for games at the dollar level ($5/hand):

50% RoR: $33,650

25% RoR: $67,300

10% RoR: $111,775

#3

I believe Wolf Video Poker handles PE ror calcs, but you need excel. Online, I think Cindy Liu’s vp bankroll tool handled PE. Last I heard it was being kept by the Wizard, but I haven’t seen it in years. I liked that tool.

C

#4

Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer for Video Poker will do RoR calcs for Pick’em. You can include the slight payoff variation in your local version as well as the cashback. DRA-VP will do both longterm and short-term RoR calcs.

In fact, Pick’em was the reason I created DRA-VP in the first place. I wanted to know how much money I needed to bring with me on a weekend trip to Mohegan Sun. I knew from the jazbo/sorokin formula how much money I’d need to play Pick’em indefinitely, but how much did I need if I wanted to play the game for 16 hours? I created an Excel sheet to get the answer, and then thought others might find it useful, too.

–Dunbar

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—In vpf…@…com, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here’s my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks
-Eric

#5

Eric,

You should purchase DRA, Dunbar’s Risk Analyzer program. I think it is available through LVA and gambler’s book club. It’s worth many times the $20 price. It will answer all of your questions about the game in question.

PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar’s program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.

Also, the 99.9531% is for the game with 1199 SF. With an 1195 SF, the return is 99.9510%. Don’t worry too much about the 0.0021% difference.

···

—In vpF…@…com, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

… there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

#6

That’s definitely true johnny. I learned that in ~2003 when Harrah’s STL used to have full-pay pick 'em for quarters. I failed to get a quad before it got yanked. I probably played at least a couple thousand hands too. Ironically, I finally did get a quad in pick 'em last year when I was showing a friend how to play video poker. But I was playing nickels because the paytable was crap…grrrr

···

—In vpf…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote:

PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar’s program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.

—In vpF…@…com, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

… there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

#7

I have seen versions of pickem with a joker and with deuces wild, but no info on them seems to exist.

···

On Fri, Nov 8, 2013 at 3:57 PM, <tringlom…@…com> wrote:

That’s definitely true johnny. I learned that in ~2003 when Harrah’s STL used to have full-pay pick 'em for quarters. I failed to get a quad before it got yanked. I probably played at least a couple thousand hands too. Ironically, I finally did get a quad in pick 'em last year when I was showing a friend how to play video poker. But I was playing nickels because the paytable was crap…grrrr

—In vpf…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote:

PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar’s program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.

—In vpF…@…com, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

… there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

#8

Gregory,

The wizard of odds website has a VP analyzer where you can get the return for deuces and joker pick’em. You can input the values from your local machine and it will calculate the ER. I have never seen these 2 games with a good paytable, but maybe there are a few.

Chris

#9

Thanks, didn’t know his software could handle this game.

···

On Sat, Nov 16, 2013 at 11:06 PM, <cy4…@…com> wrote:

Gregory,

The wizard of odds website has a VP analyzer where you can get the return for deuces and joker pick’em. You can input the values from your local machine and it will calculate the ER. I have never seen these 2 games with a good paytable, but maybe there are a few.

Chris

—In vpf…@…com, <broncosaurus@…> wrote:

I have seen versions of pickem with a joker and with deuces wild, but no info on them seems to exist.

On Fri, Nov 8, 2013 at 3:57 PM, <tringlomane@…> wrote:

That’s definitely true johnny. I learned that in ~2003 when Harrah’s STL used to have full-pay pick 'em for quarters. I failed to get a quad before it got yanked. I probably played at least a couple thousand hands too. Ironically, I finally did get a quad in pick 'em last year when I was showing a friend how to play video poker. But I was playing nickels because the paytable was crap…grrrr

—In vpf…@…com, <greeklandjohnny@…> wrote:

PE is a funny game. Even though the long test variance is fairly low, you can lose a ton on money between quads ( about every 2300 hands). Dunbar’s program will show you that you should not give up the day job for this play.

—In vpF…@…com, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

… there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

#10

you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you’re talking about such a thin edge.

pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they’re not the bad errors. that’s not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.

i’m not going to say for sure that this play isn’t +EV for you, but i will say that i’d rather book your action than back it.

good luck,

five

···

On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM, <eric_vp1…@…com> wrote:

Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here’s my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks

-Eric

#11

I have a few more reasons why Pick’em is treacherous. The strategy is so simple that you can easily lose focus. You can play very fast because you are only selecting one card. There are a lot of plays where it does not matter which card you select so I have a tendency to leave my finger on the far right button and you can often go several hands in a row hitting the same button over and over for the deal and the selection. If you lose focus you can get an itchy trigger finger and hit the button even though you know you are selecting the wrong card. If I play a longer session I slow down and move my hand away from the buttons. I also alternate buttons on the don’t matter choices to maintain focus. The training software can easily make you overconfident in your ability to play perfectly in the casino.

Chris

#12

I still remember a mistake I made once that was so bad it haunts me. This was a few YEARS ago. I was playing dollar pick’em, I was tired, and playing quickly like you mentioned, and I had something like 22-82, and picked the 8. lol I threw away TRIPS! I was beside myself, I was so upset, wondering how long it would take me to overcome such a horrible mistake. A few minutes later I just went home in disgust.

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they’re not the bad errors. that’s not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.

···

—In vpF…@…com, <fivespot55@…> wrote:

#13

You are correct in saying that it is difficult to maintain focus in P’em. My trick (after applying strategy consideration) is to always pick the higher card and if tied in rank, then Spade, Heart, Diamond, Club in order. I definitely want to avoid the continual pressing of either the left or right button where it is all to easy to make a mistake by being too quick.

Certainly the game is rigged. Don’t let that stop you; if you don’t bet, you can’t win. -Lazarus Long
In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is. -Yogi Berra
There is no such thing as luck. There is only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe. -Robert Heinlein

···

From: “cy4…@…com” <cy4…@…com>
To: vpF…@…com
Sent: Tuesday, November 19, 2013 1:00 AM
Subject: [vpFREE] RE: Pick 'em Poker Risk of ruin calculation

I have a few more reasons why Pick’em is treacherous. The strategy is so simple that you can easily lose focus. You can play very fast because you are only selecting one card. There are a lot of plays where it does not matter which card you select so I have a tendency to leave my finger on the far right button and you can often go several hands in a row hitting the same button over and over for the deal and the selection. If you lose focus you can get an itchy trigger finger and hit the button even though you know you are selecting the wrong card. If I play a longer session I slow down and move my hand away from the buttons. I also alternate buttons on the don’t matter choices to maintain focus. The training software can easily make you overconfident in your ability to play perfectly in the casino.

Chris

—In vpf…@…com, <fivespot55@…> wrote:

you forgot to specify your error rate. if you think it is 0.00%, think again. if it is higher than that, you need to include it in your calculations, particularly when you’re talking about such a thin edge.

pickem is a particularly treacherous game when it comes to real-world error rate. the strategy is easy, and it is easy to put up a near-perfect session playing for 20 minutes on a trainer and get overconfident. however, because it is a stud game, errors cost a lot more than in draw games; and the sort of errors you need to worry about are ones from random distraction or fatigue that are difficult to replicate outside the casino.

you can make a half-dozen errors an hour playing JoB and still have an error rate under 0.01%, as long as they’re not the bad errors. that’s not the case in pickem. almost all errors in pickem are bad. having a real-world long-session pickem error rate under 0.07%, which is what you need for this play to be +EV at all, is HARD.

i’m not going to say for sure that this play isn’t +EV for you, but i will say that i’d rather book your action than back it.

good luck,

five

On Wed, Nov 6, 2013 at 5:03 PM, <eric_vp1991@…> wrote:

Greetings from Southeastern Wisconsin. In my local casino, there is a bank of $1 near full pay (1195 instead of 1199 for a straight flush) Pick 'em Poker returning 99.9510% with a variance of 14.995645 and a 0.125% cash back slot club. All things considered, it should be a positive EV game 24/7.

Here’s my question: what is the risk of ruin at 50%, 25%, 10% etc.? I cannot find a RoR calculator for Pick 'em Poker anywhere online.

If anyone has any idea on where to find one or has the drive to make one, I think that would help the community immensely.

Thanks

-Eric