10a. Re: Perfect Play
Date: Thu Jan 29, 2009 4:50 pm ((PST))> I've recently starting using Bob Dancer's video poker software, I find
> that I can play perfectly for stretches, but less then 1 percent of
> the time, I make errors. I know what to do but I still manage to miss
> things.
>
> Do you actually play perfectly or do you just assume you play
perfectly?
>
> Do you or should you factor some small percentage for errors into your
> profit calculations?
>
Knowing correct strategy and playing correct strategy are, as you observe, two different things. You need to SEE the hand correctly and then ACT correctly. I think it is pretty well established that our perceptive skills as human beings are not perfect, so I very much believe that no one plays perfectly.
It is possible for a player to play perfectly on a computer and verify it.
In my opinion...
It is impossible for a player to play perfectly in a casino setting AND TO VERIFY IT.
So if anyone tells you they play perfectly in the casino, ask them how they know.
While we certainly MAY be aware of them when they occur, we often ARE unaware of our errors, or at least some of them, and you can't report a mistake you didn't know you made.
It is certainly possible to make mistakes and admit to those, which would be a credible report of IMperfect play, I'd think (again, in a casino setting).
Only a properly programmeed computer can play perfectly in a casino setting and verify it - and that would require some non-standard technology to be applied.
That said...
You should KNOW that profit will be less in the long run if you play less than perfectly, but how to calculate it is tricky. It depends on what mistake you are making. If it's choosing one play over another one that is very marginally superior, not that big a deal, and you could even make that mistake routinely and calculate the small amount it costs you.
For example, if you NEVER consider penalty cards (many do not) it's possible to determine the expected return of your strategy vs. someone who uses penalty cards correctly.
If you don't notice dealt quads or flushes on occasion and sometimes break them up, that's more costly. If you make a small mistake routinely (or occasionally for that matter) on a very common hand, that's costly (e.g., JoB, not seeing the second pair you're dealt). If you don't know exactly which mistake you're making and exactly what frequency the mistake occurs (i.e., you don't always make it), there's not enough data to calculate the cost of the mistakes.
Only if you know exactly what mistake(s) you're making and you make it / them with a predictable frequency could you "factor in" an adjustment to your expected profit / loss.
A 1% error rate does not necessarily mean you'll make 1% less on your coin-in.
And earning more or less than the calculated return obviously does not necessarily mean you're playing worse (or even more obviously, better) than correct strategy!
VP is a game with an element of chance and an element of skill. In the short run, "luck" (the element of chance) will be a big factor in how you do. In the long run, "skill" will be the big factor, and mistakes reduce your skill level, just as not knowing the correct play reduces it.
--BG
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