vpFREE2 Forums

People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

#1

THIS IS THE EXAMPLE STORY FOR MY MONTHLY STORY CONTEST FOR

https://www.progressivevp.com/index.php

It is an excerpt from my book, which I'm sure everybody knows about by now, so I won't mention it again...does saying you aren't going to mention something, count as mentioning something??? Hm, Oh well.

Rules and Prizes listed in Contest thread.

···

____________________________________________________________________

People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

"Gods are fragile things; they may be killed by a whiff of science or a dose of common sense."
                                                     ~ Chapman Cohen

A real life example of the kind of logic error that leads to mistakenly attributing meaning to casual relationships happened to me when I was about eight. It was a clear religiously-spawned error in cause and effect. As a child I remember my religious leaders bragging that our church in the Philippines was the only building left standing for miles around after a severe hurricane had devastated the isle. In their view, it was clearly a miracle; God had saved it from destruction! They went on to state that those who had gone to church that morning had been saved by taking refuge in the church, and that the people who had shirked their religious duties and stayed home had not been so fortunate.

I raised my hand and asked, "What do we build churches of in the Philippines?" The reply I got back was, "I believe, the same thing we build them of here." I asked, "Isn't that brick?" The elder replied, "Well, yes." I then pointed out that most houses in the Philippines were wood or straw and that our church was probably the only solid brick building in the area. Its miraculous survival probably had less to do with divine intervention and more to do with good building materials. No one could argue with me, and the elder had to grudgingly agree. I think he said a little personal prayer right about then that I could just have trouble sitting still or paying attention like the other eight-year-olds. Needless to say, I was not called upon much when I raised my hand after that, regardless of the insightfulness of my comments.

You could always argue that God had inspired them to build the church with brick in the first place, and so his intervention was still the source of their salvation. I'm not trying to say there isn't a God, but if there is one, I just don't think he/she or it influences things nearly as much as people would like to think. Consider one last thing, having more to do with human nature than the existence of god: If there had been several commercial buildings built of the same materials, and by pure chance one had survived, everyone would have heralded it as very lucky. If there had been several churches of different faiths on that isle all built of the same material, and by pure random chance one had survived, what do you think that church would have said to it constituents?

"How lucky."

I don't think so! Food for thought.

#2

Frank wrote:

<< I'm not trying to say there isn't a God>>

Why not? You're not doing anyone any favors by pretending superstitions are
reality. We're almost at the tipping point. Why not add your voice?

Cogno

#3

Frank wrote: I'm not trying to say there isn't a God>>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote: Why not? You're not doing anyone any favors by pretending superstitions are reality. We're almost at the tipping point. Why not add your voice?
Cogno

···

______________________________________________

Well if it was an outstanding question contest, you might just have one it. Answers:

1. I'd like to keep to vpFREE's rules about no religious topics.

2. This story is not negative on religion, it just happens to be about some guys I went to church with. The point of this story and my current contest is to show how people can missatribute causal relationships, which is perfect for vpFREE and very applicable to gambling.

3. I do want to add my voice to humanity's knowledge, I simply choose not to do that be contradicting peoples beliefs.

4. Discussions are rarely won by contradicting people. To really change opinions, people must find common ground on things they agree, and then allow others to come to their own conclusions on the points where they disagree. Sometimes, this even results in one changing ones own beliefs. It is the difference between discussion and argument.

5. The story is a direct excerpt from my book, which was intentionally written to be religiously neutral. It was actually very hard to write a book about gambling, including the concepts of randomness and probability and not make it sound like the book was bashing religion. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH MY BELIEFS! It's just history. Religion has come into direct conflict with probability math so many times throughout the ages it's impossible to write about it and not sound anti-religious. The first westerner that wrote about probability was burned at the stake and the second was put under house arrest...and this was for publishing such controversial stuff as some equations, and saying, "Hay, some things might just happen randomly". So to counterbalance this dark history, and make my book more accessible to people of faith, I was careful to offer their side of the story, and make sure people didn't blame "god" for things that people did.

6. I saw, and see no point in writing things to contradict religious beliefs that only an atheist would read. Oddly, that would be "preaching to the choir".

7. And finally, I know from personal experience how important and powerful beliefs can be, regardless of their veracity. It is the choice between being right, or being happy. I can only make that decision for myself. And I can not find it in my heart to begrudge someone for believing anything that makes them happy.

Anyway...I hope that explains my attitude toward religious topics, and why I agree with vpFREE's policy of not talking about them.

Now lets get back on track talking about MIS-ATTRIBUTION OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS. Obviously any example one gives of this will be about someone, or group of people that erred. It should be irrelevant to the discussion if they happen to of a particular faith or not. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A SPECIFIC HUMAN ERROR IN COGNITION HERE.

~FK

#4

I'd say "god" is by far the #1 misattribution of causal relationships, but
as you say religious topics are not appropriate here. Thanks for the
response and congrats on the radio show. I'll listen to the podcast.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Frank
Sent: Wednesday, February 2, 2011 11:01 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

Frank wrote: I'm not trying to say there isn't a God>>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote: Why
not? You're not doing anyone any favors by pretending superstitions are
reality. We're almost at the tipping point. Why not add your voice?
Cogno
______________________________________________

Well if it was an outstanding question contest, you might just have one it.
Answers:

1. I'd like to keep to vpFREE's rules about no religious topics.

2. This story is not negative on religion, it just happens to be about some
guys I went to church with. The point of this story and my current contest
is to show how people can missatribute causal relationships, which is
perfect for vpFREE and very applicable to gambling.

3. I do want to add my voice to humanity's knowledge, I simply choose not to
do that be contradicting peoples beliefs.

4. Discussions are rarely won by contradicting people. To really change
opinions, people must find common ground on things they agree, and then
allow others to come to their own conclusions on the points where they
disagree. Sometimes, this even results in one changing ones own beliefs. It
is the difference between discussion and argument.

5. The story is a direct excerpt from my book, which was intentionally
written to be religiously neutral. It was actually very hard to write a book
about gambling, including the concepts of randomness and probability and not
make it sound like the book was bashing religion. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO
WITH MY BELIEFS! It's just history. Religion has come into direct conflict
with probability math so many times throughout the ages it's impossible to
write about it and not sound anti-religious. The first westerner that wrote
about probability was burned at the stake and the second was put under house
arrest...and this was for publishing such controversial stuff as some
equations, and saying, "Hay, some things might just happen randomly". So to
counterbalance this dark history, and make my book more accessible to people
of faith, I was careful to offer their side of the story, and make sure
people didn't blame "god" for things that people did.

6. I saw, and see no point in writing things to contradict religious beliefs
that only an atheist would read. Oddly, that would be "preaching to the
choir".

7. And finally, I know from personal experience how important and powerful
beliefs can be, regardless of their veracity. It is the choice between being
right, or being happy. I can only make that decision for myself. And I can
not find it in my heart to begrudge someone for believing anything that
makes them happy.

Anyway...I hope that explains my attitude toward religious topics, and why I
agree with vpFREE's policy of not talking about them.

Now lets get back on track talking about MIS-ATTRIBUTION OF CAUSAL
RELATIONSHIPS. Obviously any example one gives of this will be about
someone, or group of people that erred. It should be irrelevant to the
discussion if they happen to of a particular faith or not. WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT A SPECIFIC HUMAN ERROR IN COGNITION HERE.

~FK

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#5

I thought yesterdays story stunk

http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2011/feb/02/hard-rock-hotel-files-lawsuit-over-lenders-foreclo/

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

···

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com

#6

Blaise Pascal, famous big time French math wizard (and inventor of the calculator)insisted that religion is basically the ultimate advantage play. Pascal theorized that because no one knows for sure if there's a God, or an afterlife, we humans are getting far better odds by living as if he/she does exist and will eventually judge us. When we cash in for the final time, if there is no God, no harm no foul --- we've eased the lives of those around us and decreased the world's asshole population significantly. If there is a God, living by his rules keeps us out of hell. Sacre bleu!

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Frank wrote: I'm not trying to say there isn't a God>>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@> wrote: Why not? You're not doing anyone any favors by pretending superstitions are reality. We're almost at the tipping point. Why not add your voice?
Cogno
______________________________________________

Well if it was an outstanding question contest, you might just have one it. Answers:

1. I'd like to keep to vpFREE's rules about no religious topics.

2. This story is not negative on religion, it just happens to be about some guys I went to church with. The point of this story and my current contest is to show how people can missatribute causal relationships, which is perfect for vpFREE and very applicable to gambling.

3. I do want to add my voice to humanity's knowledge, I simply choose not to do that be contradicting peoples beliefs.

4. Discussions are rarely won by contradicting people. To really change opinions, people must find common ground on things they agree, and then allow others to come to their own conclusions on the points where they disagree. Sometimes, this even results in one changing ones own beliefs. It is the difference between discussion and argument.

5. The story is a direct excerpt from my book, which was intentionally written to be religiously neutral. It was actually very hard to write a book about gambling, including the concepts of randomness and probability and not make it sound like the book was bashing religion. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH MY BELIEFS! It's just history. Religion has come into direct conflict with probability math so many times throughout the ages it's impossible to write about it and not sound anti-religious. The first westerner that wrote about probability was burned at the stake and the second was put under house arrest...and this was for publishing such controversial stuff as some equations, and saying, "Hay, some things might just happen randomly". So to counterbalance this dark history, and make my book more accessible to people of faith, I was careful to offer their side of the story, and make sure people didn't blame "god" for things that people did.

6. I saw, and see no point in writing things to contradict religious beliefs that only an atheist would read. Oddly, that would be "preaching to the choir".

7. And finally, I know from personal experience how important and powerful beliefs can be, regardless of their veracity. It is the choice between being right, or being happy. I can only make that decision for myself. And I can not find it in my heart to begrudge someone for believing anything that makes them happy.

Anyway...I hope that explains my attitude toward religious topics, and why I agree with vpFREE's policy of not talking about them.

Now lets get back on track talking about MIS-ATTRIBUTION OF CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS. Obviously any example one gives of this will be about someone, or group of people that erred. It should be irrelevant to the discussion if they happen to of a particular faith or not. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A SPECIFIC HUMAN ERROR IN COGNITION HERE.

~FK

#7

I have a better wager. I claim that if you spend your life serving ME, you
will have TRIPLE paradise everlasting when you die. But if you don't you
will QUADRUPLE burn in the fires of hell. So you see it's the world's
biggest advantage play to spend your life serving ME. No harm no foul!

To begin with, the light above my garage needs changing and it's really hard
to reach.

Cogno

···

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
jaywilly240
Sent: Thursday, February 3, 2011 8:20 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

Blaise Pascal, famous big time French math wizard (and inventor of the
calculator)insisted that religion is basically the ultimate advantage play.
Pascal theorized that because no one knows for sure if there's a God, or an
afterlife, we humans are getting far better odds by living as if he/she does
exist and will eventually judge us. When we cash in for the final time, if
there is no God, no harm no foul --- we've eased the lives of those around
us and decreased the world's asshole population significantly. If there is a
God, living by his rules keeps us out of hell. Sacre bleu!

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:

Frank wrote: I'm not trying to say there isn't a God>>

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@> wrote: Why

not? You're not doing anyone any favors by pretending superstitions are
reality. We're almost at the tipping point. Why not add your voice?

Cogno
______________________________________________

Well if it was an outstanding question contest, you might just have one

it. Answers:

1. I'd like to keep to vpFREE's rules about no religious topics.

2. This story is not negative on religion, it just happens to be about

some guys I went to church with. The point of this story and my current
contest is to show how people can missatribute causal relationships, which
is perfect for vpFREE and very applicable to gambling.

3. I do want to add my voice to humanity's knowledge, I simply choose not

to do that be contradicting peoples beliefs.

4. Discussions are rarely won by contradicting people. To really change

opinions, people must find common ground on things they agree, and then
allow others to come to their own conclusions on the points where they
disagree. Sometimes, this even results in one changing ones own beliefs. It
is the difference between discussion and argument.

5. The story is a direct excerpt from my book, which was intentionally

written to be religiously neutral. It was actually very hard to write a book
about gambling, including the concepts of randomness and probability and not
make it sound like the book was bashing religion. THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO
WITH MY BELIEFS! It's just history. Religion has come into direct conflict
with probability math so many times throughout the ages it's impossible to
write about it and not sound anti-religious. The first westerner that wrote
about probability was burned at the stake and the second was put under house
arrest...and this was for publishing such controversial stuff as some
equations, and saying, "Hay, some things might just happen randomly". So to
counterbalance this dark history, and make my book more accessible to people
of faith, I was careful to offer their side of the story, and make sure
people didn't blame "god" for things that people did.

6. I saw, and see no point in writing things to contradict religious

beliefs that only an atheist would read. Oddly, that would be "preaching to
the choir".

7. And finally, I know from personal experience how important and powerful

beliefs can be, regardless of their veracity. It is the choice between being
right, or being happy. I can only make that decision for myself. And I can
not find it in my heart to begrudge someone for believing anything that
makes them happy.

Anyway...I hope that explains my attitude toward religious topics, and why

I agree with vpFREE's policy of not talking about them.

Now lets get back on track talking about MIS-ATTRIBUTION OF CAUSAL

RELATIONSHIPS. Obviously any example one gives of this will be about
someone, or group of people that erred. It should be irrelevant to the
discussion if they happen to of a particular faith or not. WE ARE TALKING
ABOUT A SPECIFIC HUMAN ERROR IN COGNITION HERE.

~FK

------------------------------------

vpFREE Links: http://members.cox.net/vpfree/Links.htm

Yahoo! Groups Links

#8

You refer to "Pascal's Wager"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pascal's_Wager

You might not know this, but there is much debate on whether or not Pascal was a "true believer". Some suggest that he deliberately wrote in a church complimentary fashion, so as to get away with publishing things that were forbidden to others. If so, it worked like a charm. He was the first to get anything about probability published en'mass, though several had written before him.

This was almost certainly the case with his work on the vacuum, which had actually been done by Torricelli (Student of Galileo) earlier and not published for fear of church reprisal. See my book page: 26-The subheading "This Just In--Some Things Can Just Happen".

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "jaywilly240" <wha724@...> wrote:

Blaise Pascal, famous big time French math wizard (and inventor of the calculator)insisted that religion is basically the ultimate advantage play. Pascal theorized that because no one knows for sure if there's a God, or an afterlife, we humans are getting far better odds by living as if he/she does exist and will eventually judge us. When we cash in for the final time, if there is no God, no harm no foul --- we've eased the lives of those around us and decreased the world's asshole population significantly. If there is a God, living by his rules keeps us out of hell. Sacre bleu!

#9

Despite the triple odds you're offering for Eternal Bliss --- and the quadruple penalties for eternal damnation, I'd guess countless people would consider Pascal's pay scale more attractive than yours. Especially since yours could result in someone falling off a ladder.

···

(--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Cogno Scienti <cognoscienti@...> wrote:

I have a better wager. I claim that if you spend your life serving ME, you
will have TRIPLE paradise everlasting when you die. But if you don't you
will QUADRUPLE burn in the fires of hell. So you see it's the world's
biggest advantage play to spend your life serving ME. No harm no foul!

To begin with, the light above my garage needs changing and it's really hard
to reach.

Cogno

-----Original Message-----
From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
jaywilly240
Sent: Thursday, February 3, 2011 8:20 AM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

Blaise Pascal, famous big time French math wizard (and inventor of the
calculator)insisted that religion is basically the ultimate advantage play.
Pascal theorized that because no one knows for sure if there's a God, or an
afterlife, we humans are getting far better odds by living as if he/she does
exist and will eventually judge us. When we cash in for the final time, if
there is no God, no harm no foul --- we've eased the lives of those around
us and decreased the world's asshole population significantly. If there is a
God, living by his rules keeps us out of hell. Sacre bleu!

the choir".
>
> 7. And finally, I know from personal experience how important and powerful
beliefs can be, regardless of their veracity. It is the choice between being
right, or being happy. I can only make that decision for myself. And I can
not find it in my heart to begrudge someone for believing anything that
makes them happy.
>
> Anyway...I hope that explains my attitude toward religious topics, and why
I agree with vpFREE's policy of not talking about them.
>
> ~FK

#10

Well if nothing else, you are all amusing me to the point my cheeks hurt. I still like Carlin's one about worshiping the SUN, but praying to Joe Pesci, because he seems like a guy that can get stuff done.

Now if you really want to make my day, direct your creativity into the Contest Entry thread: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/vpFREE/message/111684 and I'll give you some free stuff next month.

Now that the Radio Show is going, we'll have dinners and show tickets and all sorts of things to give away. The Palms is giving us 4 sets of show tickets for one of their big concerts to give away, just tonight.

Tune in at 7PM and call To CALL in LIVE during the show the Numbers are:
(702) 731-1230 & 1-(866) 820-5528

We'll announce when it's time. About 7:30PM

~FK

#11

And if you believe in reincarnation, there's freeplay involved!

Seriously though, one of the basic problems with Pascal's Wager is deciding which of many possible conflicting religions to follow.

···

On Thu, 3 Feb 2011, jaywilly240 wrote:

Despite the triple odds you're offering for Eternal Bliss --- and the quadruple penalties for eternal damnation, I'd guess countless people would consider Pascal's pay scale more attractive than yours.

#12

True. Another big issue is the fact that going through the motions and saying the right words isn't quite the same thing as believing. Not by a long shot. The whole faith thing is kind of the point, at least with most Christian religions.

I'm not getting into whether those with faith are right or wrong, only pointing-out the fundamental error in Pascal's Wager. He loses either way, at least according to most Christian religions.

···

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: zorak@ninthbit.com
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2011 14:05:55 -0800
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

On Thu, 3 Feb 2011, jaywilly240 wrote:

Despite the triple odds you're offering for Eternal Bliss --- and the
quadruple penalties for eternal damnation, I'd guess countless people
would consider Pascal's pay scale more attractive than yours.

And if you believe in reincarnation, there's freeplay involved!

Seriously though, one of the basic problems with Pascal's Wager is
deciding which of many possible conflicting religions to follow.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#13

Indeed that is a dilemma, but it's better than being impaled on the horn of a mono-lemma.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Lone Locust of the Apocalypse <zorak@...> wrote:

On Thu, 3 Feb 2011, jaywilly240 wrote:
> Despite the triple odds you're offering for Eternal Bliss --- and the
> quadruple penalties for eternal damnation, I'd guess countless people
> would consider Pascal's pay scale more attractive than yours.

And if you believe in reincarnation, there's freeplay involved!

Seriously though, one of the basic problems with Pascal's Wager is
deciding which of many possible conflicting religions to follow.

#14

I agree and Pascal was clearly intelligent enough to realize as much. This is one of the reasons I believe he was a closet atheist that wrote such thing deliberately to appease the church and allow him to publish things that had been deemed heresy before.

Trivia Note: Heresy was taken from a Greek word which meant, "to choose" or "have choices". I guess we can all understand why that turned into a curse in the minds of the church.

~FK

···

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, David Silvus <djsilvus@...> wrote:

True. Another big issue is the fact that going through the motions and saying the right words isn't quite the same thing as believing. Not by a long shot. The whole faith thing is kind of the point, at least with most Christian religions.

I'm not getting into whether those with faith are right or wrong, only pointing-out the fundamental error in Pascal's Wager. He loses either way, at least according to most Christian religions.

To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
From: zorak@...
Date: Thu, 3 Feb 2011 14:05:55 -0800
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Re: People That Live in Brick Houses Can Throw Stones

On Thu, 3 Feb 2011, jaywilly240 wrote:
> Despite the triple odds you're offering for Eternal Bliss --- and the
> quadruple penalties for eternal damnation, I'd guess countless people
> would consider Pascal's pay scale more attractive than yours.

And if you believe in reincarnation, there's freeplay involved!

Seriously though, one of the basic problems with Pascal's Wager is
deciding which of many possible conflicting religions to follow.

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]