vpFREE2 Forums

Payback, variance help

#1

Hi Gang:
The software we have doesn't allow us to get the payback percentage and game
variance for games that require six coins, so we were wondering if we could
get some help on these two pay tables. They are on games at Harrah's AC
called something like Super Bonus Poker that we were fooling around with this past
weekend.

The JOB pay table is:
Jacks or Better .... 5
Two Pair ............ 10
Three of a Kind .. 15
Straight .............. 20
Flush .................. 25
Full House .......... 45
Four of a Kind ... 500
SF ..................... 300
RF ..................... 4000

The Bonus Poker pay table is:
JOB ................ 5
Two pair ........10
3 of a kind .... 15
Str ................. 20
Flush ............. 25
FH ................. 40
4 5's to K's ..... 400
4 2's, 3's and 4's ... 600
Aces ........... 1200
SF .............. 750
RF ............. 4000

The Bonus Poker pay table seemed interesting but remember this requires six
coins per line.
The variance is probably tremendous even if the return is decent.
Any help in determining both on these two games will be extremely
appreciated.
Regards,
CoachVee & Hedy

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[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#2

Hi Gang:
The software we have doesn't allow us to get the payback percentage and

game

variance for games that require six coins, so we were wondering if we

could

get some help on these two pay tables.

Coach,
  This should be fairly simple. When you enter the two paytables into your
software, you should come up with the 5 coin figures for the JOB game as
116.3104% and var. at 41.53531. For the BP, 116.9267% and 50.97628 var..
Divide 5 by 6 to determine that 5/6 of those hand total returns would be
.8333. In other words 5 is .8333% of 6. Now take the figures that your
software showed for the new paytable and multiply them by .8333. For the
JOB game, you should get 96.8214 return and 34.6137 var., and for the BP, it
should be 97.4350% return and 42.4785 var.. I'm reasonably sure that you
probably won't need the instructions on how to set up your software to
practice these beasts :).
             Nudge

···

From: <coachvee@aol.com>
Sent: Sunday, March 01, 2009 5:09 PM
Subject: [vpFREE] Payback, variance help

#3

coachvee wrote:

> The software we have doesn't allow us to get the payback
> percentage and game variance for games that require six coins,
> so we were wondering if we could get some help on these two pay
> tables.

nudge51 wrote:

Coach,
This should be fairly simple. When you enter the two paytables
into your software, you should come up with the 5 coin figures for
the JOB game as 116.3104% and var. at 41.53531. For the BP,
116.9267% and 50.97628 var..

Divide 5 by 6 to determine that 5/6 of those hand total returns
would be .8333. In other words 5 is .8333% of 6. Now take the
figures that your software showed for the new paytable and multiply
them by .8333. For the JOB game, you should get 96.8214 return and
34.6137 var., and for the BP, it should be 97.4350% return and
42.4785 var..

I'm reasonably sure that you probably won't need the instructions
on how to set up your software to practice these beasts :).

Good chance I might have blown by this thread had Coach not invoked my
name in his reply to this :wink:

Spot on numbers for the ER's. (Ok, you know you'd get modestly
different numbers had you used 5/6 precisely, rather than rounding the
repeating "3"s to four decimal places ... for example, the JB game
comes to 96.9253% vs 96.8214 ... a real split hair).

There is, however, a tactical error in coming up with variance.
Variance involves a squaring of the difference between the payout of
each hand type and the overall game EV.

==> This means that the appropriate multiplier by which to determine
the adjusted variance is 5/6 squared - .694444 (not 5/6 itself). This
reduces the Super JB variance to 28.8440.

···

---------

I assume that anyone interested in a variance number has some interest
in comparing one game against another. Because you're typically
comparing a 6-coin game against 5-coin games a modest adjustment is
appropriate.

(I'm offering this up for general consideration. The weak paytables
offered here doesn't make it of particular interest with these
specific machines.)

The variance value is expressed as "bet variance" based on a 6-coin
wager. You can roughly (with emphasis on "roughly") make a comparison
of the $ swings of 6-coin play to standard 5-coin play at the same
denomination (in other words, take into account the higher wager).
Overall, you would look for this game to have similar dollar swings to
a 5-coin game with 6/5 times the variance -- about 35 for Super JB.

==> This suggests that (all other things being equal) you might look
for the Super JB game session volatility to fall between 5-coin 10/7
DB and 9/6 DDB in terms of $ swings.

- Harry

#4

Harry,

  For years I used this formula on the Frontier 6-coin JB progressive.

I use 6/5 = 1.2. Or, 5/6 = .833333.

116.3104*.833333= 96.9253

116.3104/1.2= 96.9253

···

_____

From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com [mailto:vpF…@…com] On Behalf Of
Harry Porter
Sent: Monday, March 02, 2009 8:32 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Payback, variance help

CLIP

Spot on numbers for the ER's. (Ok, you know you'd get modestly
different numbers had you used 5/6 precisely, rather than rounding the
repeating "3"s to four decimal places ... for example, the JB game
comes to 96.9253% vs 96.8214 ... a real split hair).

- Harry

[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]

#5

SNIPS

Spot on numbers for the ER's. (Ok, you know you'd get modestly
different numbers had you used 5/6 precisely, rather than rounding the
repeating "3"s to four decimal places ... for example, the JB game
comes to 96.9253% vs 96.8214 ... a real split hair).

==> This means that the appropriate multiplier by which to determine
the adjusted variance is 5/6 squared - .694444 (not 5/6 itself). This
reduces the Super JB variance to 28.8440.

Both Harry and 5-card are absolutely correct. My posted answer is exactly
what happens when you spend seven hours of your Sunday day of rest playing
three different games in three different casinos. I am quite sure that both
errors were exacerbated by leaving behind a large number of my somewhat
damaged brain cells in each of the three casinos. I could say that it won't
happen again, but I know me too well.
                                               Nudge

···

From: "Harry Porter"
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Payback, variance help

#6

nudge51 wrote:

My posted answer is exactly what happens when you spend seven hours
of your Sunday day of rest playing three different games in three
different casinos. I am quite sure that both errors were
exacerbated by leaving behind a large number of my somewhat damaged
brain cells in each of the three casinos.

If a few formerly beer-sodden neurons were the most severe of
sacrifices after a long day spent gaming, it was a pretty fine day :wink:

- H.